Olaplex remains free-cash-flow positive despite a GAAP loss and trades at a low PEG ratio, but slowing revenue growth, an already-reached price target, and an elevated risk score outweigh the positive momentum.
Thesis pillars
- Growth Deceleration Signal→Stable
- Fcf Positive Despite Gaap Loss→Stable
- Target Reached Valuation Ceiling→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Olaplex Holdings, Inc. (OLPX) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail
Sell if holding. At $2.08, A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: Cosway (54.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: international (52.0%).
Olaplex Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and sells haircare products in the United States and internationally. The company offers hair care shampoos and conditioners for use in treatment, maintenance, and protection of hair, as well as oil,... Read more
Sell if holding. At $2.08, A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: Cosway (54.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: international (52.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 67, MACD bullish. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 30d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHSupplierCosway54%10-K Item 1: 'Cosway Company Inc. ("Cosway") manufactured products that accounted for 54% of our net sales and 52% of our inventory product purchases in 2025.'
- LOWCustomerone customer18%10-K Item 1: 'During the year ended December 31, 2025, one of our customers represented 18% of our total net sales.'
- HIGHGeographicinternational52%10-K Item 1: 'approximately 48% of our net sales were generated in the U.S. and approximately 52% of our net sales were international'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $2.08, A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: Cosway (54.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: international (52.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 67, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $2.03. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $2.04 (-1.4% upside). Prior stop was $2.03. Stop-loss: $2.03.
Concentration risk — Supplier: Cosway (54.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: international (52.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Olaplex Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 20.8). TrendMatrix value score: 5.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
14 analysts cover OLPX with a consensus score of 2.6/5. Average price target: $2.
What does Olaplex Holdings, Inc. do?Olaplex Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and sells haircare products in the United...
Olaplex Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and sells haircare products in the United States and internationally. The company offers hair care shampoos and conditioners for use in treatment, maintenance, and protection of hair, as well as oil, moisture mask, and nourishing hair serum. It also provides in-salon services for repairing and shaping curls. The company distributes its products through professional distributors in salons, directly to retailers for sale in their physical stores, e-commerce sites, and its website, as well as third party e-commerce platforms. Olaplex Holdings, Inc. was founded in 2014 and is based in New York, New York.