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NEXTNextDecade CorporationSell4.7·$7.79-7.32%
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NextDecade Corporation (NEXT) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Equipment & Services

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $7.79: Quality below floor (0.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Elevated put/call ratio: 3.48; Below-average business quality.

NextDecade Corporation is constructing and developing the Rio Grande LNG Facility near Brownsville, Texas, a 5-train natural gas liquefaction and export project with total expected capacity of ~30 MTPA. Revenue will come from long-term LNG Sale and Purchase Agreements with 14... Read more

$7.79+4.9% A.UpsideScore 4.7/10#26 of 30 Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
QualityF-score2 / 9FCF yield-212.22%
Stop $7.35Target $8.18(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.4:1
Analyst target$9.40+20.7%5 analysts
$8.18our TP
$7.79price
$9.40mean
$7
$12

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $7.79: Quality below floor (0.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Elevated put/call ratio: 3.48; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 45d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15

Recent Developments — NextDecade Corporation

Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 202645d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: Bechtel
Quality below floor (0.8 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)120.0
Mkt Cap$2.2B
EV/EBITDA-61.3
Profit Mgn0.0%
ROE-18.6%
Rev Growth
Beta1.50
DividendNone
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F2/9

Options Flow

P/C3.48bearish
IV88%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSupplierBechtel
    10-K Item 1: 'We have entered into fully wrapped, lump-sum turnkey contracts with Bechtel, a well-established and reputable LNG engineering and construction firm, for the engineering, procurement, and construction of Phase 1, Train 4, and Train 5'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-15Item 5.02LOW
    NextDecade entered into amended and restated employment agreement with Matthew Schatzman, Chairman and CEO, effective immediately. Agreement provides initial term through April 15, 2029 with automatic one-year extensions. Annual base salary $1,000,000.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Current Ratio
1.6
Piotroski F
2.2
Moat
3.2
Cash-burning (FCF negative)No competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9Quality concerns

Volatile — 6.0% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Volatility
0.0
Put Call
0.0
Implied Vol
0.0
Debt Equity
1.0
Short Interest
2.8
Days To Cover
4.0
Beta
5.0
Elevated put/call: 3.48High IV: 88%Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.3
Value Rank
5.0
Growth Rank
5.0
GatesMomentum 4.0<4.5A.R:R 0.4 < 1.5@spotExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentInsider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 45d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
41 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $7.58Resistance $9.15

Price Targets

$7
$8
A.Upside+5.0%
A.R:R0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (0.8 < 4.0)
! momentum at 4.0 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 0.4 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (45d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NEXT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $7.79: Quality below floor (0.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Elevated put/call ratio: 3.48; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $7.35. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NEXT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $8.18 (+4.9% upside). Prior stop was $7.35. Stop-loss: $7.35.

What are the risks of investing in NEXT?

Concentration risk — Supplier: Bechtel; Quality below floor (0.8 < 4.0).

Is NEXT overvalued or undervalued?

NextDecade Corporation trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 120.0). TrendMatrix value score: 4.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NEXT?

11 analysts cover NEXT with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $9.

What does NextDecade Corporation do?NextDecade Corporation is constructing and developing the Rio Grande LNG Facility near Brownsville, Texas, a 5-train...

NextDecade Corporation is constructing and developing the Rio Grande LNG Facility near Brownsville, Texas, a 5-train natural gas liquefaction and export project with total expected capacity of ~30 MTPA. Revenue will come from long-term LNG Sale and Purchase Agreements with 14 counterparties for ~25.3 MTPA; construction is performed by Bechtel under lump-sum EPC contracts. The company currently generates no revenue and is pre-operational, with first commercial deliveries tied to train completion.

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