NextDecade Corporation is a pre-revenue LNG development company whose entire value rests on the Rio Grande LNG facility reaching completion, but cash-burning operations, a weak Piotroski F-Score of 2, and an elevated put/call ratio of 3.43 signal that markets are pricing significant execution risk.
Thesis pillars
- Single Asset Construction Risk↑Improving
- Cash Burn Quality Floor Breach→Stable
- High Short Interest Bearish Options↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Mar 2, 2026
NextDecade Corporation (NEXT) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup · Inst Constrain edge
Energy · Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $6.51: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.
NextDecade Corporation is constructing a natural gas liquefaction and export facility on the Brownsville Ship Channel in south Texas, with five trains targeting approximately 30 MTPA of capacity. The company has no current revenue; long-term SPAs with 14 counterparties for ~25.3... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $6.51: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — NextDecade Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS NextDecade Says Uncontracted Rio Grande LNG Margins Projected To Average Over $6/MMBtu, More Than $1 Above Base Case; Ex — benzinga Oct 29, 2026 positive
- NEWS NextDecade Q3 EPS $0.54 Beats $(0.66) Estimate — benzinga Oct 29, 2026 positive
- NEWS NextDecade Q3 EPS $0.54 — benzinga Oct 29, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Cheniere Energy Units Sabine Pass Liquefaction And Corpus Christi Liquefaction Enter LNG Sale And Purchase Agreements Wi — benzinga Oct 22, 2026 neutral
- NEWS 'Qatar Says It’s Ready to Resume LNG Operations Within Weeks of Hormuz Reopening' - WSJ — benzinga Sep 21, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-10-29T12:43:34Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicRio Grande LNG Facility10-K Item 1A: 'We are not expected to generate cash flow, or even obtain revenues, from our LNG liquefaction and export activities unless and until the Rio Grande LNG Facility is operational'
- HIGHSupplierBechtel10-K Item 1: 'fully wrapped, lump-sum turnkey contracts with Bechtel ... for the engineering, procurement, and construction of Phase 1, Train 4, and Train 5'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-06-03Item 5.02LOWOn June 3, 2026, NextDecade announced appointment of John Zuklic as CFO, effective July 6, 2026. Zuklic previously served as VP and CFO at Citgo Petroleum Corporation since 2020, with prior roles at Phillips 66 and ConocoPhillips. No prior CFO departure disclosed.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-15Item 5.02LOWOn April 15, 2026, NextDecade entered into an amended and restated employment agreement with CEO and Chairman Matthew Schatzman, effective immediately, with an initial term through April 15, 2029. Base salary $1,000,000; annual bonus target 130% of base salary.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
4 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Risk profile below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $6.51: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $6.05. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $7.57 (+16.3% upside). Prior stop was $6.05. Stop-loss: $6.05.
Concentration risk — Geographic: Rio Grande LNG Facility; Concentration risk — Supplier: Bechtel; Quality below floor (0.8 < 4.0).
NextDecade Corporation trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 7.0). TrendMatrix value score: 9.1/10. Verdict: Sell.
11 analysts cover NEXT with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $9.
What does NextDecade Corporation do?NextDecade Corporation is constructing a natural gas liquefaction and export facility on the Brownsville Ship Channel...
NextDecade Corporation is constructing a natural gas liquefaction and export facility on the Brownsville Ship Channel in south Texas, with five trains targeting approximately 30 MTPA of capacity. The company has no current revenue; long-term SPAs with 14 counterparties for ~25.3 MTPA carry aggregate fixed fees of approximately $3.0 billion annually once operational, with Bechtel as sole EPC contractor.