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NEXTNextDecade CorporationSell4.7·$8.46-0.82%
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NextDecade Corporation (NEXT) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Equipment & Services

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $8.46: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation.

NextDecade Corporation is constructing and developing the Rio Grande LNG Facility near Brownsville, Texas, a 5-train natural gas liquefaction and export project with total expected capacity of ~30 MTPA. Revenue will come from long-term LNG Sale and Purchase Agreements with 14... Read more

$8.46+7.1% A.UpsideScore 4.7/10#23 of 30 Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
QualityF-score2 / 9FCF yield-208.99%
Stop $7.87Target $9.06(resistance)A.R:R -0.3:1
Analyst target$9.40+11.1%5 analysts
$9.06our TP
$8.46price
$9.40mean
$7
$12

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $8.46: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 52d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09

Recent Developments — NextDecade Corporation

Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 202652d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: Bechtel
Target reached (-3.3% upside)
Quality below floor (0.8 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)121.9
Mkt Cap$2.3B
EV/EBITDA-61.4
Profit Mgn0.0%
ROE-18.6%
Rev Growth
Beta1.50
DividendNone
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F2/9

Options Flow

P/C0.10bullish
IV75%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSupplierBechtel
    10-K Item 1: 'We have entered into fully wrapped, lump-sum turnkey contracts with Bechtel, a well-established and reputable LNG engineering and construction firm, for the engineering, procurement, and construction of Phase 1, Train 4, and Train 5'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-15Item 5.02LOW
    NextDecade entered into amended and restated employment agreement with Matthew Schatzman, Chairman and CEO, effective immediately. Agreement provides initial term through April 15, 2029 with automatic one-year extensions. Annual base salary $1,000,000.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Current Ratio
1.6
Piotroski F
2.2
Moat
3.2
Cash-burning (FCF negative)No competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9Quality concerns

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.3
Value Rank
5.0
Growth Rank
5.0

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Forward Pe
1.0
Analyst Target
4.0
Peg Ratio
6.4
Forward P/E: 121.9xPEG: 1.16
GatesA.R:R -0.3=NEGATIVEMomentum 4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 4.8>=4.5Insider activity: OKEARNINGS PROXIMITY 52d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
44 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $7.60Resistance $9.24

Price Targets

$8
$9
A.Upside+7.1%
A.R:R-0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-3.3% upside)
! Quality below floor (0.8 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (52d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NEXT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $8.46: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $7.87. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NEXT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $9.06 (+7.1% upside). Prior stop was $7.87. Stop-loss: $7.87.

What are the risks of investing in NEXT?

Concentration risk — Supplier: Bechtel; Target reached (-3.3% upside); Quality below floor (0.8 < 4.0).

Is NEXT overvalued or undervalued?

NextDecade Corporation trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 121.9). TrendMatrix value score: 3.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NEXT?

11 analysts cover NEXT with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $9.

What does NextDecade Corporation do?NextDecade Corporation is constructing and developing the Rio Grande LNG Facility near Brownsville, Texas, a 5-train...

NextDecade Corporation is constructing and developing the Rio Grande LNG Facility near Brownsville, Texas, a 5-train natural gas liquefaction and export project with total expected capacity of ~30 MTPA. Revenue will come from long-term LNG Sale and Purchase Agreements with 14 counterparties for ~25.3 MTPA; construction is performed by Bechtel under lump-sum EPC contracts. The company currently generates no revenue and is pre-operational, with first commercial deliveries tied to train completion.

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