Value
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Fwd P/E | 1.0 |
| PEG | 6.4 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 121.9x
- ▸PEG: 1.16
NEXT · Why this verdict
Why NextDecade (NEXT) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
0.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 1.6 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 3.2 |
| Piotroski F | 2.2 |
- ▸Cash-burning (FCF negative)
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.5 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 5.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.6 |
Insider
5.8/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 6.5 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider buying — $505,505 (0.022% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.0 |
| quality rank | 0.3 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
Technical
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.1 |
| support resistance | 4.8 |
| 52w position | 4.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 2.0 |
| days to cover | 3.9 |
| volatility | 0.4 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.9 |
| beta | 5.0 |
| debt equity | 1.0 |
- ▸High short interest justified: 15%
- ▸High IV: 74%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 1.1 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.8 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:4.8>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:52d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.3=NEGATIVE
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.33
Upside
-3.3%
Downside
10.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRANGE_BOUND — RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 1.50>1.3, MCap $2.3B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Growth at 10.0 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: ASYMMETRY:-0.3=NEGATIVE.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Sentiment at 5.8, and Insider at 5.8; the weakest are Quality at 0.8, Peer rank at 2.6, and Risk (lower is worse) at 3.3. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.33 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.