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NEWTNewtekOne, Inc.Hold6.2·$14.06-1.68%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

NewtekOne screens cheap versus peers with insider buying support, but an earnings-quality red flag on free cash flow, a leverage penalty, and an unsafe dividend yield temper the value case after the stock reached its analyst target.

Thesis pillars

  • Cheap Forward Multiple Vs PeersStable
  • Earnings Quality Red FlagStable
  • Insider Buying ConvictionStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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NewtekOne, Inc. (NEWT) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Inst Constrain edge

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $14.06, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 4.0%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5.

NewtekOne is a financial holding company operating Newtek Bank, which originates SBA 7(a) loans (the third-largest SBA lender by dollar volume in fiscal 2026), SBA 504 loans, and commercial and industrial loans, alongside Newtek Payments, Newtek Insurance and Newtek Payroll... Read more

$14.06+4.0% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#73 of 223 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield-72.21%
IncomeYield5.21%(5y avg 9.70%)Payout42.04%sustainable
Stop $13.08Target $14.62(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.5:1
Analyst target$16.80+19.5%5 analysts
$14.62our TP
$14.06price
$16.80mean
$25

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $14.06, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 4.0%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5. Chart setup: RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 21d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About NewtekOne, Inc.

About NewtekOne, Inc.

NewtekOne originated $767.8 million of SBA 7(a) loans during 2025 through Newtek Bank, its commercial bank subsidiary, which held PLP status allowing expedited SBA guarantee processing, and surpassed $1.4 billion in total deposits as of December 31, 2025 after launching Business Checking in December 2023. The company converted from a business development company to a financial holding company in January 2023 following its acquisition of Newtek Bank, and reduced headcount by 85% since the beginning of 2024 as part of a $400 million expense-reduction program tied to outsourcing loan servicing to MOHELA and divesting its Business Processing segment. Newtek Bank's SBA 7(a) loan portfolio spanned 8,431 loans across 50 states and 82 industries as of December 31, 2025.

NewtekOne earns revenue through net interest income on SBA 7(a), SBA 504, commercial-and-industrial and asset-based loans originated by Newtek Bank, plus gains on selling the SBA-guaranteed portions of 7(a) loans in the secondary market at premiums shared with the SBA above a 110%-of-par threshold, and fee income from Newtek Payments (merchant card processing, generating $5.2 billion in 2025 processed volume), Newtek Insurance Agency and Newtek Payroll and Benefits Solutions. The company acquires nearly all clients through its patented NewTracker referral-tracking platform, sourcing hundreds of daily referrals from alliance partners such as banks, credit unions, trade associations and accounting firms rather than paying traditional loan brokers or maintaining bank branches. Newtek Bank retains the unguaranteed portion of SBA 7(a) loans on balance sheet, funded increasingly through core deposits gathered digitally rather than through the loan securitizations NSBF historically used before winding down its SBA lending operations in 2023.

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NewtekOne's core lending franchise is structurally tied to a single federal program: SBA 7(a) loans, where Newtek Bank depends on maintaining its PLP designation to process guarantees without prior SBA review, and where the government shutdown during the fourth quarter of 2025 and recent changes to the SBA 7(a) Program contributed to a decline in 2025 origination volume to $767.8 million from $943.0 million in 2024. Because the guaranteed portion of every 7(a) loan carries the full faith and credit of the U.S. government, any future funding lapse, appropriations fight or SBA program-rule change would flow through directly to NewtekOne's origination volume and premium income in a way that a diversified commercial bank without SBA concentration would not experience.

See also: Financial Services · Banks - Regional

From NewtekOne, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Jul 28, 202621d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Positive insider activity
Margin of safety: 58%
Risks
Thin upside margin: 4.0%
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)6.3
P/E (Fwd)5.7
Mkt Cap$413M
EV/EBITDA2.8
Profit Mgn16.4%
ROE18.3%
Rev Growth10.7%
Beta1.35
Dividend5.21%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.05bullish
IV92%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Obv
1.0
Volume
2.8
Macd
3.3
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.7<4.5A.R:R 0.5 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 21d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
54 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $13.18Resistance $15.34

Price Targets

$13
$15
A.Upside+4.0%
A.R:R0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.7 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 0.5 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (21d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NEWT stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $14.06, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 4.0%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5. Chart setup: RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $14.62 (+4.0%), stop $13.08 (−7.5%), A.R:R 0.5:1. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NEWT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $14.62 (+4.0% upside). Target $14.62 (+4.0%), stop $13.08 (−7.5%), A.R:R 0.5:1. Stop-loss: $13.08.

What are the risks of investing in NEWT?

Thin upside margin: 4.0%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5; Negative momentum.

Is NEWT overvalued or undervalued?

NewtekOne, Inc. trades at a P/E of 6.3 (forward 5.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.9/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about NEWT?

13 analysts cover NEWT with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $17.

What does NewtekOne, Inc. do?NewtekOne is a financial holding company operating Newtek Bank, which originates SBA 7(a) loans (the third-largest SBA...

NewtekOne is a financial holding company operating Newtek Bank, which originates SBA 7(a) loans (the third-largest SBA lender by dollar volume in fiscal 2026), SBA 504 loans, and commercial and industrial loans, alongside Newtek Payments, Newtek Insurance and Newtek Payroll businesses serving independent business owners nationwide. The company acquires clients primarily through its patented NewTracker referral-management platform and alliance partnerships with banks, credit unions and trade associations rather than traditional branches or loan brokers. NewtekOne originated $767.8 million of SB

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