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KURAKura Oncology, Inc.Sell5.6·$12.12+1.08%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Kura Oncology offers a large asymmetric setup (144% modeled upside) backed by 30% revenue growth, but a four-quarter EPS miss streak, bearish insider selling, and overbought momentum argue the setup is far riskier than the headline upside suggests.

Thesis pillars

  • Large Asymmetric UpsideStable
  • Earnings Miss StreakStable
  • Growth Despite Cash BurnStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Kura Oncology, Inc. (KURA) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthShortModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $12.12: Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10 and A.R:R 8.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 17%; Elevated put/call ratio: 4.75; Below-average business quality.

Kura Oncology is a biopharmaceutical company focused on precision medicines for cancer, whose menin inhibitor ziftomenib received FDA approval in November 2025 under the trade name KOMZIFTI for relapsed or refractory NPM1-mutated acute myeloid leukemia -- the company's only... Read more

$12.12+123.8% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#74 of 255 Biotechnology
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield-13.25%
Stop $11.27Target $27.12(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 8.3:1
Analyst target$31.17+157.2%12 analysts
$27.12our TP
$12.12price
$31.17mean
$76

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $12.12: Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10 and A.R:R 8.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 17%; Elevated put/call ratio: 4.75; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 30d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: speculative.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Kura Oncology, Inc.

About Kura Oncology, Inc.

Kura Oncology won FDA approval for KOMZIFTI (ziftomenib) in November 2025, its first and only approved product, indicated for adults with relapsed or refractory NPM1-mutated acute myeloid leukemia who have exhausted other options -- a patient population Kura estimates represents a $350 million to $400 million initial U.S. annual market opportunity, growing to roughly $7.0 billion if ziftomenib expands into frontline AML combinations. Kura co-commercializes KOMZIFTI in the U.S. with Kyowa Kirin under an equal profit-and-loss split, while Kyowa Kirin holds commercialization rights outside the United States.

KOMZIFTI, a once-daily oral menin inhibitor, is approved based on the Phase 1/2 KOMET-001 trial, which showed a 21.4% complete-remission-or-better rate in 112 relapsed/refractory NPM1-mutated AML patients; Kura is now running two Phase 3 registrational trials (KOMET-017) testing ziftomenib alongside both intensive and non-intensive chemotherapy in newly diagnosed AML, aiming to expand beyond its current monotherapy label. At least 80% of private payors had established coverage policies within 90 days of approval, though some require patients to try KOMZIFTI before other menin inhibitors. Kura's only approved-product competitor is revumenib (REVUFORJ), another FDA-approved menin inhibitor. Beyond menin inhibition, Kura's farnesyl transferase inhibitor darlifarnib is being evaluated in combination with targeted therapies for renal cell carcinoma, non-small cell lung cancer, colorectal cancer and pancreatic cancer, broadening the pipeline beyond AML.

Show full overview

KOMZIFTI's commercial trajectory intersects directly with U.S. drug-pricing policy: the 10-K notes that HHS can select up to 20 single-source drugs annually for Medicare price negotiation once a product has been on the market at least seven years, a mechanism that would apply to KOMZIFTI in the next decade if it remains commercially successful. Nearer term, Kura's entire approved-product revenue depends on one asset in one indication -- relapsed or refractory NPM1-mutated AML, a population Kura itself estimates at roughly 6,000 U.S. cases across the related SPS program -- making label expansion into frontline AML combinations, expected to read out in 2028, central to the company's long-term revenue growth.

See also: Healthcare · Biotechnology

From Kura Oncology, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-08

Recent Developments — Kura Oncology, Inc.

Latest news

Generated 2026-07-08T23:03:58Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202630d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: KOMZIFTI
Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-4.2
Mkt Cap$980M
EV/EBITDA-1.3
Profit Mgn0.0%
ROE-124.7%
Rev Growth29.5%
Beta0.35
DividendNone
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C4.75bearish
IV108%elevated
Max Pain$9-25.7% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductKOMZIFTI
    10-K Item 1A: 'KOMZIFTI is our only approved product and it has been approved solely as a monotherapy for the treatment of adult patients with relapsed or refractory NPM1-mutated AML.'
  • MEDIUMcounterpartyKyowa Kirin
    10-K Item 1: 'We record all U.S. sales of KOMZIFTI, and we and Kyowa Kirin share equally the profits and losses from the commercialization activities in the United States.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-06-04Item 5.02LOW
    Kura Oncology's Board amended the 2014 Equity Incentive Plan and 2015 ESPP to increase authorized shares by 6,500,000 and 2,500,000 respectively; stockholders approved both amendments at the June 4, 2026 Annual Meeting.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-06-04Item 5.07LOW
    At its June 4, 2026 Annual Meeting, Kura Oncology stockholders elected Diane Parks, Mary T. Szela and Michael J. Vasconcelles, M.D. as Class III directors to serve until the 2029 Annual Meeting.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Piotroski F
4.4
Moat
5.8
Current Ratio
6.9
Cash-burning: FCF -181% of revenueQuality concerns

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
5.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/4M

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.0
Value Rank
3.9
Growth Rank
6.0
GatesExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 7.2>=5.5A.R:R 8.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKEARNINGS PROXIMITY 30d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Speculative
RSI
86 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $8.51Resistance $12.13

Price Targets

$11
$27
A.Upside+123.8%
A.R:R8.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0)

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (30d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KURA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $12.12: Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10 and A.R:R 8.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 17%; Elevated put/call ratio: 4.75; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $11.27. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the KURA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $27.12 (+123.8% upside). Prior stop was $11.27. Stop-loss: $11.27.

What are the risks of investing in KURA?

Concentration risk — Product: KOMZIFTI; Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0).

Is KURA overvalued or undervalued?

Kura Oncology, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -4.2). TrendMatrix value score: 5.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about KURA?

22 analysts cover KURA with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $31.

What does Kura Oncology, Inc. do?Kura Oncology is a biopharmaceutical company focused on precision medicines for cancer, whose menin inhibitor...

Kura Oncology is a biopharmaceutical company focused on precision medicines for cancer, whose menin inhibitor ziftomenib received FDA approval in November 2025 under the trade name KOMZIFTI for relapsed or refractory NPM1-mutated acute myeloid leukemia -- the company's only approved product. Kura co-commercializes KOMZIFTI in the United States with Kyowa Kirin, sharing profits and losses equally, while advancing ziftomenib into additional AML combination trials and a separate farnesyl transferase inhibitor program targeting solid tumors.

Related stocks: ZVRA (Zevra Therapeutics, Inc.) · CRMD (CorMedix Inc.) · AUPH (Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc) · ABUS (Arbutus Biopharma Corporation) · ADMA (ADMA Biologics Inc)
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