Value
5.1/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 8.2 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
KIDS · Why this verdict
Why OrthoPediatrics (KIDS) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality scores 4.0/10 with ROE and net margin at zero because of GAAP losses, though free cash flow is positive (1% margin) and the Piotroski F-Score is 8/9. Quality breakdown | FCF margin should rise above 3% and net margin should move toward breakeven within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA 1% FCF margin and Rule of 40 score of 17 are thin and fail the growth-plus-profitability bar. | ||
Quarterly revenue rose to $70.5M in the June 2026 quarter from $61.1M a year earlier, and the revenue growth score is 6.3/10. Revenue quarters | Quarterly revenue should exceed the $68.5M next-quarter estimate and keep growing double digits over 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe June 2026 quarter jumped from $59.4M in March, and sequential revenue was flat for three quarters before that, so the step-up may be lumpy rather than a trend. | ||
OrthoPediatrics beat EPS estimates in all 4 recent quarters with an average surprise of 7.2%, narrowing but still reporting losses of $0.26 per share. Last 4 quarters | EPS losses should keep narrowing from the current $0.26 per share toward breakeven over 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterBeating on losses is a low bar; the company is still unprofitable at the GAAP level, and one miss in March 2025 shows beats are not guaranteed. | ||
Insiders sold $46.7M of stock over 90 days across 21 sales, about 7.3% of market cap, with zero buying. Insider | Insider selling should taper to under 1% of market cap over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterLarge sales may reflect pre-planned liquidity or diversification rather than a negative view, and the sellers may include early investors. | ||
At $24.50 the shares trade 2.3% above the $23.93 analyst target, leaving limited upside against 13.2% downside to the stop. Analyst target | Earnings growth should lift analyst targets above $24.50 over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is light, so the target may lag a stock in a breakout with a golden cross and bullish MACD. | ||
Quality scores 4.0/10 with ROE and net margin at zero because of GAAP losses, though free cash flow is positive (1% margin) and the Piotroski F-Score is 8/9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF margin should rise above 3% and net margin should move toward breakeven within 12 months.
CounterA 1% FCF margin and Rule of 40 score of 17 are thin and fail the growth-plus-profitability bar.
Quarterly revenue rose to $70.5M in the June 2026 quarter from $61.1M a year earlier, and the revenue growth score is 6.3/10.
↓DeterioratingRevenue quarters
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue should exceed the $68.5M next-quarter estimate and keep growing double digits over 12 months.
CounterThe June 2026 quarter jumped from $59.4M in March, and sequential revenue was flat for three quarters before that, so the step-up may be lumpy rather than a trend.
OrthoPediatrics beat EPS estimates in all 4 recent quarters with an average surprise of 7.2%, narrowing but still reporting losses of $0.26 per share.
↓DeterioratingLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- EPS losses should keep narrowing from the current $0.26 per share toward breakeven over 12 months.
CounterBeating on losses is a low bar; the company is still unprofitable at the GAAP level, and one miss in March 2025 shows beats are not guaranteed.
Insiders sold $46.7M of stock over 90 days across 21 sales, about 7.3% of market cap, with zero buying.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider selling should taper to under 1% of market cap over the next 12 months.
CounterLarge sales may reflect pre-planned liquidity or diversification rather than a negative view, and the sellers may include early investors.
At $24.50 the shares trade 2.3% above the $23.93 analyst target, leaving limited upside against 13.2% downside to the stop.
↓DeterioratingAnalyst target
- Expectation
- Earnings growth should lift analyst targets above $24.50 over the next 12 months.
CounterAnalyst coverage is light, so the target may lag a stock in a breakout with a golden cross and bullish MACD.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.2 |
| FCF quality | 3.3 |
| Moat | 6.5 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸FCF-positive despite GAAP loss (FCF margin 1%, FCF yield 0.4%)
- ▸Rule of 40: 17 (fail)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
6.3/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.3 |
Momentum
8.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.7 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 10.0 |
| vol acceleration | 10.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 86)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
- ▸Volume surge (5.5x avg) on up move
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.9 |
| Analyst rating | 7.9 |
| Price target | 4.7 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (8.0) — signal dampened
Insider
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.4 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $46,747,931 (5.813% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.7 |
| quality rank | 2.9 |
| growth rank | 6.4 |
Technical
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.7 |
| 52w position | 9.5 |
| gap | 4.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.4 |
| days to cover | 5.3 |
| volatility | 1.9 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 6.6 |
| beta | 7.1 |
| debt equity | 8.7 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
Catalyst
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.4 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:8.8>=5.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.70
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST_CLUSTER(3)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:119d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.0=NEGATIVE
- INSIDER:5.81%=EXTREME
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.97
Upside
-14.6%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.8B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -1.0=NEGATIVE outcome against Momentum at 8.8 and asymmetric R:R of -0.97.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 8.8, Risk (lower is worse) at 6.6, and Growth at 6.3; the weakest are Technical at 3.5, Quality at 4.0, and Insider at 4.1. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.97 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Accelerating Revenue Growth
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $61M from the current $70.5M.
- P2Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifQuarterly EPS loss widens to more than $0.40 per share from the current $0.26.
- P3Heavy Executive Selling
Trip ifInsider selling exceeds 10% of market cap over a 90-day window.
- P4Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifShare price falls below the $22.94 stop-loss level.
- P5Gaap Loss But Fcf Positive
Trip ifFCF margin falls below 0% from the current 1%.