Value
5.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 3.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 2.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 47.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.11
INIO · Why this verdict
Why INNIO (INIO) is rated SELL
Updated
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The engine's asymmetry gate failed at 0.33, reflecting a thin 5.0% upside margin against 15.0% downside, the weakest risk/reward reading among the failed gates. Engine gate (failed) | If this weak asymmetry read holds, the ratio should remain below 1.0 over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA thin upside margin on an industry growth leader can also reflect a market that has already priced in most of the near-term growth, meaning further re-rating could come from continued execution rather than requiring a price pullback. | ||
Growth notes show strong revenue growth of 35% year-over-year, positioning the company as an industry growth leader within its peer group. Growth breakdown | If this growth strength holds, revenue growth should stay above 20% YoY over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA 35% growth rate driven by a cyclical industrial upcycle can decelerate sharply once the cycle turns, and the company's own leverage penalty suggests the balance sheet may not fully support this growth pace. | ||
Insider notes show heavy insider selling of $2,685,405,024, representing 9.69% of market cap, flagged by the engine as an extreme selling severity. Insider breakdown | If this selling reflects genuine bearish conviction, insider selling should remain elevated over the next 2 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterLarge-scale insider selling at this size often reflects a single institutional or founder shareholder executing a planned, pre-scheduled divestiture (Rule 10b5-1) rather than a signal about company-specific risk. | ||
The bear case cites a leverage penalty for a debt-to-equity ratio of 12.5, applying a -1.5 scoring deduction that reflects significant balance-sheet risk. Bear case | If this leverage concern is accurate, debt-to-equity should remain elevated over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterElevated leverage supporting a 35% growth rate can be a deliberate and value-accretive capital allocation choice rather than a red flag, particularly if the growth investments generate returns above the cost of debt. | ||
Sentiment notes flag light analyst coverage of just 10.0 (an index reading), explicitly noting the signal is dampened, even as the limited coverage implies a 21% upside. Sentiment breakdown | If light coverage persists, the analyst-coverage signal should remain dampened over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterLight coverage can persist indefinitely for a foreign-domiciled industrial name, meaning the dampened-signal caveat may remain permanently relevant rather than resolving. | ||
The engine's asymmetry gate failed at 0.33, reflecting a thin 5.0% upside margin against 15.0% downside, the weakest risk/reward reading among the failed gates.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- If this weak asymmetry read holds, the ratio should remain below 1.0 over the next 12 months.
CounterA thin upside margin on an industry growth leader can also reflect a market that has already priced in most of the near-term growth, meaning further re-rating could come from continued execution rather than requiring a price pullback.
Growth notes show strong revenue growth of 35% year-over-year, positioning the company as an industry growth leader within its peer group.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- If this growth strength holds, revenue growth should stay above 20% YoY over the next 12 months.
CounterA 35% growth rate driven by a cyclical industrial upcycle can decelerate sharply once the cycle turns, and the company's own leverage penalty suggests the balance sheet may not fully support this growth pace.
Insider notes show heavy insider selling of $2,685,405,024, representing 9.69% of market cap, flagged by the engine as an extreme selling severity.
→StableInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- If this selling reflects genuine bearish conviction, insider selling should remain elevated over the next 2 quarters.
CounterLarge-scale insider selling at this size often reflects a single institutional or founder shareholder executing a planned, pre-scheduled divestiture (Rule 10b5-1) rather than a signal about company-specific risk.
The bear case cites a leverage penalty for a debt-to-equity ratio of 12.5, applying a -1.5 scoring deduction that reflects significant balance-sheet risk.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- If this leverage concern is accurate, debt-to-equity should remain elevated over the next 12 months.
CounterElevated leverage supporting a 35% growth rate can be a deliberate and value-accretive capital allocation choice rather than a red flag, particularly if the growth investments generate returns above the cost of debt.
Sentiment notes flag light analyst coverage of just 10.0 (an index reading), explicitly noting the signal is dampened, even as the limited coverage implies a 21% upside.
→StableSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- If light coverage persists, the analyst-coverage signal should remain dampened over the next 12 months.
CounterLight coverage can persist indefinitely for a foreign-domiciled industrial name, meaning the dampened-signal caveat may remain permanently relevant rather than resolving.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
INNIO shows a strong 35% growth profile and industry-leading positioning, but extreme insider selling, a high leverage penalty, and a thin asymmetry setup with only light analyst coverage support caution on sizing.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.2/10data confidence 86%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 2.8 |
| Op margin | 3.8 |
| Net margin | 1.8 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 35% YoY
Momentum
1.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 3.5 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
Sentiment
7.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 8.8 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (10.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 34%
Insider
4.4/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 6.8 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $2,685,405,024 (9.899% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.3 |
| quality rank | 2.2 |
| growth rank | 9.4 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.6 |
| support resistance | 8.0 |
| 52w position | 5.6 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.8 |
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
- ▸High IV: 101%
Catalyst
5.0/10data confidence 50%How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:1.8<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.1<1.5@spot
- INSIDER:9.90%=EXTREME
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.08
Upside
+16.2%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.0 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 10.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:1.8<4.5, ASYMMETRY:1.1<1.5@spot, INSIDER:9.90%=EXTREME) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 1.08 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Sentiment at 7.8, and Technical at 6.8; the weakest are Momentum at 1.8, Peer rank at 3.0, and Quality at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.08 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Growth Profile
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Extreme Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider selling falls below 3% of market cap over the next 90-day period.
- P3Leverage Penalty
Trip ifDebt-to-equity ratio falls below 8x at the next reported balance sheet date.
- P4Thin Asymmetry Narrow Upside
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio rises above 1.0 for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Light Analyst Coverage
Trip ifAnalyst coverage expands to at least 3 covering analysts within 12 months.