Value
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 0.0 |
| P/S | 7.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.8 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 22.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.11
INIO · Why this verdict
Why INNIO (INIO) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
INNIO is a fast-growing industrial machinery company with 42% revenue growth and large analyst-implied upside, but thin margins, weak quality, a 65% drawdown and 23% short interest make it speculative.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality is weak at 3.6/10, with low margins, ranking at the bottom of peers on quality, and no competitive moat. Quality breakdown | Operating and net margins improve as revenue scales. | ↑Improving |
| CounterWithout a moat, growth may require price concessions and margins could stay thin or fall. | ||
Revenue is growing 42% year over year, with the June 2026 quarter at $937.7M versus $659.5M a year earlier. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue reaches the estimated $1.04B next quarter. | →Stable |
| CounterSome quarterly revenue figures are provisional, and growth may reflect lumpy project timing rather than durable demand. | ||
The $30.45 analyst target implies 100.2% upside from $15.21, against 15.0% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 6.7. Targets | Price moves toward the analyst target as results are delivered. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is light, which dampens the signal, and the stock is down 65% from its high. | ||
Momentum is weak at 3.5/10 with falling RSI and a weak MACD, while short interest is 23% and implied volatility is 108%. Risk breakdown | Momentum score recovers above 5 and short interest declines from 23%. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterHigh short interest signals informed skepticism, and volatility this high can amplify declines. | ||
Earnings are 3 days away, with only one reported quarter in the data: a 59.3% beat at $0.08 versus the $0.05 estimate. Earnings | The October 27 report beats the estimate again. | →Stable |
| CounterA single quarter of history is too thin to establish a beat pattern, and the stock is exposed to event risk. | ||
Quality is weak at 3.6/10, with low margins, ranking at the bottom of peers on quality, and no competitive moat.
↑ImprovingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Operating and net margins improve as revenue scales.
CounterWithout a moat, growth may require price concessions and margins could stay thin or fall.
Revenue is growing 42% year over year, with the June 2026 quarter at $937.7M versus $659.5M a year earlier.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue reaches the estimated $1.04B next quarter.
CounterSome quarterly revenue figures are provisional, and growth may reflect lumpy project timing rather than durable demand.
The $30.45 analyst target implies 100.2% upside from $15.21, against 15.0% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 6.7.
↓DeterioratingTargets
- Expectation
- Price moves toward the analyst target as results are delivered.
CounterAnalyst coverage is light, which dampens the signal, and the stock is down 65% from its high.
Momentum is weak at 3.5/10 with falling RSI and a weak MACD, while short interest is 23% and implied volatility is 108%.
↓DeterioratingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum score recovers above 5 and short interest declines from 23%.
CounterHigh short interest signals informed skepticism, and volatility this high can amplify declines.
Earnings are 3 days away, with only one reported quarter in the data: a 59.3% beat at $0.08 versus the $0.05 estimate.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The October 27 report beats the estimate again.
CounterA single quarter of history is too thin to establish a beat pattern, and the stock is exposed to event risk.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.5/10data confidence 86%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 2.6 |
| Op margin | 6.6 |
| Net margin | 1.4 |
| Current ratio | 4.8 |
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 57% YoY
Momentum
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 9.5 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 5.5 |
| Volume | 6.3 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
Sentiment
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 4.9 |
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (10.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 79%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.0 |
| quality rank | 2.0 |
| growth rank | 9.4 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.2 |
| support resistance | 4.5 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 4.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 0.0 |
| days to cover | 7.7 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 2.1 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸High short interest: 21%
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.68
- ▸High IV: 90%
Catalyst
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Extreme risk factors.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:RISK_FLOORPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.2>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:3.7>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:88d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
3.70
Upside
+55.5%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -57% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects clean gate clearance against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 3.70.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Catalyst at 7.6, and Insider at 7.3; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 2.9, Technical at 3.2, and Peer rank at 3.4. The V9 engine cleared all gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.70 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Rapid Revenue Growth
Trip ifYear-over-year revenue growth falls below 15% from the current 42%.
- P2Thin Margins No Moat
Trip ifQuality score falls below 3.0 from the current 3.6.
- P3Analyst Target Upside
Trip ifStock price falls below the $14.15 stop level from the current $15.21.
- P4Weak Momentum High Short Interest
Trip ifShort interest rises above 30% from the current 23%.
- P5Earnings Event Limited History
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% at the October 27 report.