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ILPTIndustrial Logistics PropertiesSell5.1·$8.57-0.58%
SellHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

Industrial Logistics Properties shows solid free cash flow quality and Piotroski strength, but elevated leverage, a flagged yield trap, and a negative asymmetry setup at an already-reached analyst target support caution.

Thesis pillars

  • Leverage PenaltyStable
  • Yield Trap WarningStable
  • Fcf Positive Despite Gaap LossStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Industrial Logistics Properties (ILPT) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueHigh Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Industrial

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $8.57 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Counterparty: RMR (external manager).

Industrial Logistics Properties Trust is a Maryland REIT that owns and leases 409 industrial and logistics properties totaling 59.6 million square feet across 39 states, 94.5% occupied as of December 31, 2025. FedEx Corporation is its largest tenant at 27.9% of annualized rental... Read more

$8.57+7.1% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#12 of 16 REIT - Industrial
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield25.12%
IncomeYield2.30%(5y avg 4.29%)Payout92.31%
Stop $7.97Target $9.18(resistance)A.R:R -0.5:1
Analyst target$9.65+12.6%2 analysts
$9.18our TP
$8.57price
$9.65mean
$10

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $8.57 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Counterparty: RMR (external manager). Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 21d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Industrial Logistics Properties

About Industrial Logistics Properties

Industrial Logistics Properties Trust owned 409 industrial and logistics properties spanning 59.6 million rentable square feet across 39 states as of December 31, 2025, with the portfolio 94.5% occupied. FedEx Corporation alone accounts for 27.9% of annualized rental revenue across 78 properties in 33 states, while Amazon.com Services adds another 7.3%, and Hawaii properties — concentrated on Oahu — contribute 27.8% of rental revenue despite representing a small fraction of the company's 39-state footprint.

ILPT's Mainland Properties leases generally require tenants to pay fixed rent plus reimburse most operating costs, with rent resets or fixed escalators embedded in many agreements; the portfolio carries a 7.6-year weighted-average remaining lease term. Hawaii Properties leases are distinctive within the REIT sector, with rents on many parcels periodically reset to fair market value or a percentage of land value through negotiation or appraisal, a mechanism that has produced significant rent increases given limited industrial land supply on Oahu. ILPT holds a 61% interest in its Mountain JV consolidated joint venture and a 22% stake in an unconsolidated joint venture, and on May 8, 2026, Mountain JV refinanced $1.6 billion of floating- and fixed-rate mortgage debt into a new $1.62 billion loan secured by 90 properties at a fixed 5.71% rate maturing in 2031, replacing debt that carried floating-rate exposure. The company is externally managed by RMR, which employs nearly 900 people and provides all operational, investment, and administrative services since ILPT itself has no employees.

Show full overview

ILPT's own risk-factor summary names its tenant and property-type concentration as a principal risk, and the numbers back it up: FedEx alone generates more annualized rental revenue (27.9%) than the company's entire Hawaii portfolio (27.8%), meaning a single corporate credit event at FedEx would outweigh any conceivable disruption across an entire state. The top 10 tenants combined supply 47.0% of annualized rental revenue from just 43.4% of leased square feet, indicating those relationships carry above-average rents per square foot. ILPT explicitly acknowledges it has no policy limiting concentration in any one property, tenant, or location, stating only that it believes portfolio diversification is prudent — a preference, not a constraint.

See also: Real Estate · REIT - Industrial

From Industrial Logistics Properties's most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 202621d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Counterparty: RMR (external manager)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 4.7): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-9.8
Mkt Cap$575M
EV/EBITDA16.4
Profit Mgn-11.9%
ROE-9.6%
Rev Growth4.0%
Beta2.50
Dividend2.30%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.10bullish
IV70%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMTenantFedEx Corporation28%
    10-K Item 1: 'FedEx Corporation| | Various (33 States)| | 78| | 12,781 | | | 22.7| %| | 27.9| %'
  • LOWTenantAmazon.com Services, Inc.7.3%
    10-K Item 1: 'Amazon.com Services, Inc.| | Various (7 States)| | 9| | 4,555 | | | 8.1| %| | 7.3| %'
  • MEDIUMGeographicHawaii28%
    10-K Item 1: 'our properties located primarily on the island of Oahu, Hawaii, or our Hawaii Properties, represented 27.8% of our annualized rental revenues'
  • HIGHcounterpartyRMR (external manager)
    10-K Item 1: 'Our day to day operations are conducted by RMR.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-06-10Item 5.02LOW
    On June 9, 2026, ILPT's Board expanded from seven to eight trustees, electing Elena B. Poptodorova as an Independent Trustee to fill the new seat, serving on the Audit, Compensation, and Nominating and Governance Committees. Routine board expansion, not a departure.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-05-08Item 1.01LOW
    Mountain JV (ILPT's consolidated joint venture) entered a $1.62 billion mortgage loan secured by 90 properties at a fixed 5.71% rate maturing May 2031, guaranteed in part by ILPT, using proceeds to repay $1.4 billion of floating-rate debt and $0.2 billion of amortizing fixed-rate debt.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-05-08Item 1.02MEDIUM
    In connection with the refinancing, Mountain JV terminated the agreement governing its prior $1.4 billion floating-rate mortgage loan in accordance with its terms and without penalty. Routine refinancing-driven termination, not a dispute or default.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.5
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Obv
1.0
Volume
2.4
Macd
2.8
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
3.3
Dividend Safety
4.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 2B/2M

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.0
Growth Rank
5.0
Value Rank
9.4
GatesMomentum 3.5<4.5A.R:R -0.5=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentInsider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 21d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
49 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $8.06Resistance $9.37

Price Targets

$8
$9
A.Upside+7.1%
A.R:R-0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-4.3% upside)
! momentum at 3.5 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (21d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ILPT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $8.57 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Counterparty: RMR (external manager). Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $7.97. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.

What is the ILPT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $9.18 (+7.1% upside). Prior stop was $7.97. Stop-loss: $7.97.

What are the risks of investing in ILPT?

Concentration risk — Counterparty: RMR (external manager); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 4.7): -1.5.

Is ILPT overvalued or undervalued?

Industrial Logistics Properties trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -9.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ILPT?

9 analysts cover ILPT with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $10.

What does Industrial Logistics Properties do?Industrial Logistics Properties Trust is a Maryland REIT that owns and leases 409 industrial and logistics properties...

Industrial Logistics Properties Trust is a Maryland REIT that owns and leases 409 industrial and logistics properties totaling 59.6 million square feet across 39 states, 94.5% occupied as of December 31, 2025. FedEx Corporation is its largest tenant at 27.9% of annualized rental revenue, and Hawaii properties contribute 27.8% of rental revenue. The externally managed REIT has no employees, relying on manager RMR Group for operations.

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