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ILPTIndustrial Logistics PropertiesSell5.5·$7.34
SellHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

Industrial Logistics Properties generates strong free cash flow (41% margin) and trades at a P/OCF of 6.8x with 34.6% upside to its $9.49 analyst target, but leverage is very high (debt-to-equity 5.0), earnings are inconsistent and it relies on an external manager.

Thesis pillars

  • Strong Free Cash Flow Yield→Stable
  • Upside To Analyst Target→Stable
  • High Leverage And External Manager↑Improving
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Oct 24, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 18, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Industrial Logistics Properties (ILPT) Stock Analysis

Sector Rotation edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueHigh Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Industrial

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $7.34: Concentration risk — Counterparty: RMR (external manager); Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2.

Industrial Logistics Properties Trust is a Maryland REIT that owns and leases 409 industrial and logistics properties totaling 59.6 million square feet across 39 states, 94.5% occupied as of December 31, 2025. FedEx Corporation is its largest tenant at 27.9% of annualized rental... Read more

$7.34+29.3% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#4 of 15 REIT - Industrial
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield38.29%
IncomeYield4.21%(5y avg 1.76%)Payout91.67%
Stop $6.86Analyst target $9.49(−15% haircut)A.R:R 2.5:1
Analyst consensus$11.17+52.1%3 analysts
$9.49Analyst target
$7.34price
$11.17mean
$12

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $7.34: Concentration risk — Counterparty: RMR (external manager); Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.5/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 111d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Industrial Logistics Properties

About Industrial Logistics Properties

Industrial Logistics Properties Trust owned 409 industrial and logistics properties spanning 59.6 million rentable square feet across 39 states as of December 31, 2025, with the portfolio 94.5% occupied. FedEx Corporation alone accounts for 27.9% of annualized rental revenue across 78 properties in 33 states, while Amazon.com Services adds another 7.3%, and Hawaii properties — concentrated on Oahu — contribute 27.8% of rental revenue despite representing a small fraction of the company's 39-state footprint.

ILPT's Mainland Properties leases generally require tenants to pay fixed rent plus reimburse most operating costs, with rent resets or fixed escalators embedded in many agreements; the portfolio carries a 7.6-year weighted-average remaining lease term. Hawaii Properties leases are distinctive within the REIT sector, with rents on many parcels periodically reset to fair market value or a percentage of land value through negotiation or appraisal, a mechanism that has produced significant rent increases given limited industrial land supply on Oahu. ILPT holds a 61% interest in its Mountain JV consolidated joint venture and a 22% stake in an unconsolidated joint venture, and on May 8, 2026, Mountain JV refinanced $1.6 billion of floating- and fixed-rate mortgage debt into a new $1.62 billion loan secured by 90 properties at a fixed 5.71% rate maturing in 2031, replacing debt that carried floating-rate exposure. The company is externally managed by RMR, which employs nearly 900 people and provides all operational, investment, and administrative services since ILPT itself has no employees.

Show full overview

ILPT's own risk-factor summary names its tenant and property-type concentration as a principal risk, and the numbers back it up: FedEx alone generates more annualized rental revenue (27.9%) than the company's entire Hawaii portfolio (27.8%), meaning a single corporate credit event at FedEx would outweigh any conceivable disruption across an entire state. The top 10 tenants combined supply 47.0% of annualized rental revenue from just 43.4% of leased square feet, indicating those relationships carry above-average rents per square foot. ILPT explicitly acknowledges it has no policy limiting concentration in any one property, tenant, or location, stating only that it believes portfolio diversification is prudent — a preference, not a constraint.

See also: Real Estate · REIT - Industrial

From Industrial Logistics Properties's most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Feb 17, 2027111d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Positive insider activity
Analyst upside: 29%
Risks
Concentration risk — Counterparty: RMR (external manager)
Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2
Leverage penalty (D/E 5.0): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—
P/E (Fwd)-8.3
Mkt Cap$490M
EV/EBITDA16.0
Profit Mgn-10.4%
ROE-9.2%
Rev Growth1.8%
Beta2.54
Dividend4.21%
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.30bullish
IV53%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMTenantFedEx Corporation28%
    10-K Item 1: 'FedEx Corporation| | Various (33 States)| | 78| | 12,781 | | | 22.7| %| | 27.9| %'
  • LOWTenantAmazon.com Services, Inc.7.3%
    10-K Item 1: 'Amazon.com Services, Inc.| | Various (7 States)| | 9| | 4,555 | | | 8.1| %| | 7.3| %'
  • MEDIUMGeographicHawaii28%
    10-K Item 1: 'our properties located primarily on the island of Oahu, Hawaii, or our Hawaii Properties, represented 27.8% of our annualized rental revenues'
  • HIGHcounterpartyRMR (external manager)
    10-K Item 1: 'Our day to day operations are conducted by RMR.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-06-10Item 5.02LOW
    On June 9, 2026, ILPT's Board expanded from seven to eight trustees, electing Elena B. Poptodorova as an Independent Trustee to fill the new seat, serving on the Audit, Compensation, and Nominating and Governance Committees. Routine board expansion, not a departure.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-05-08Item 1.01LOW
    Mountain JV (ILPT's consolidated joint venture) entered a $1.62 billion mortgage loan secured by 90 properties at a fixed 5.71% rate maturing May 2031, guaranteed in part by ILPT, using proceeds to repay $1.4 billion of floating-rate debt and $0.2 billion of amortizing fixed-rate debt.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-05-08Item 1.02MEDIUM
    In connection with the refinancing, Mountain JV terminated the agreement governing its prior $1.4 billion floating-rate mortgage loan in accordance with its terms and without penalty. Routine refinancing-driven termination, not a dispute or default.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
2.9
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.6
Support Resistance
2.6
52w Position
5.8

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.0
Growth Rank
2.7
Value Rank
9.3
GatesExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 6.9>=5.5A.R:R 2.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKEARNINGS PROXIMITY 111d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
57 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $6.49Resistance $7.64

Price Targets

$7
$9
A.Upside+29.3%
A.R:R2.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Analyst Consensus

Analysts10
Consensus4.0/5
Avg Target$11

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2027-02-17 (111d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ILPT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $7.34: Concentration risk — Counterparty: RMR (external manager); Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $6.86. Score 5.5/10, high confidence.

What is the ILPT stock price target?

Analyst target: $9.49 (+29.3% upside). Prior stop was $6.86. Stop-loss: $6.86.

What are the risks of investing in ILPT?

Concentration risk — Counterparty: RMR (external manager); Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2; Leverage penalty (D/E 5.0): -1.5.

Is ILPT overvalued or undervalued?

Industrial Logistics Properties trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -8.3). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ILPT?

10 analysts cover ILPT with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $11.

What does Industrial Logistics Properties do?Industrial Logistics Properties Trust is a Maryland REIT that owns and leases 409 industrial and logistics properties...

Industrial Logistics Properties Trust is a Maryland REIT that owns and leases 409 industrial and logistics properties totaling 59.6 million square feet across 39 states, 94.5% occupied as of December 31, 2025. FedEx Corporation is its largest tenant at 27.9% of annualized rental revenue, and Hawaii properties contribute 27.8% of rental revenue. The externally managed REIT has no employees, relying on manager RMR Group for operations.

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