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FMNBFarmers National Banc Corp.Hold6.3·$14.15-1.39%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

FMNB combines attractive valuation, strong 28% revenue growth, and a breakout technical setup with a price that has already reached its target — causing a negative asymmetry gate failure — a mixed recent earnings track record, and elevated options-market risk pricing.

Thesis pillars

  • Attractive Valuation With Strong GrowthStable
  • Target Reached Negative AsymmetryStable
  • Breakout Technical SetupStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Farmers National Banc Corp. (FMNB) Stock Analysis

Inst Constrain edge

HoldValueGrowthModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $14.15, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: core deposits (93.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Farmers National Banc Corp. is an Ohio-based financial holding company operating The Farmers National Bank of Canfield in northeastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania, alongside Farmers Trust Company for trust, estate, and retirement services and Farmers National Insurance. The... Read more

$14.15+3.7% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#57 of 223 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield4.64%(5y avg 4.52%)Payout46.90%sustainable
Stop $13.59Target $14.67(resistance)A.R:R -0.8:1
Analyst target$16.00+13.1%3 analysts
Range unavailable (3 analysts)

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $14.15, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: core deposits (93.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 22, 202614d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Positive insider activity
Risks
Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: core deposits (93.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)9.9
P/E (Fwd)8.2
Mkt Cap$850M
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn29.5%
ROE9.6%
Rev Growth27.7%
Beta0.79
Dividend4.64%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.67bearish
IV80%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWloan_portfoliocommercial and industrial loans10%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 10.4% of our loan portfolio consisted of commercial and industrial loans'
  • HIGHloan_portfoliocore deposits93%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Core deposits – savings and money market accounts, time deposits less than $250,000 and demand deposits—comprised approximately 93.0% of total deposits at December 31, 2025'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-16Item 5.02LOW
    At the April 16, 2026 Annual Meeting, shareholders approved the company's 2026 Equity Incentive Plan, reserving 1,000,000 shares of common stock for restricted stock, stock units, and share awards to directors, officers, and other eligible participants.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Obv
1.0
Volume
1.4
Macd
3.1
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.4<4.5A.R:R -0.8=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentEARNINGS PROXIMITY 14d<=14d (soft)Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
45 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $13.93Resistance $14.97

Price Targets

$14
$15
A.Upside+3.7%
A.R:R-0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-3.9% upside)
! momentum at 3.4 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (14d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FMNB stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $14.15, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: core deposits (93.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $14.67 (+3.7%), stop $13.59 (−4.1%), A.R:R -0.8:1. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FMNB stock price target?

Take-profit target: $14.67 (+3.7% upside). Target $14.67 (+3.7%), stop $13.59 (−4.1%), A.R:R -0.8:1. Stop-loss: $13.59.

What are the risks of investing in FMNB?

Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: core deposits (93.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum.

Is FMNB overvalued or undervalued?

Farmers National Banc Corp. trades at a P/E of 9.9 (forward 8.2). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about FMNB?

9 analysts cover FMNB with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $16.

What does Farmers National Banc Corp. do?Farmers National Banc Corp. is an Ohio-based financial holding company operating The Farmers National Bank of Canfield...

Farmers National Banc Corp. is an Ohio-based financial holding company operating The Farmers National Bank of Canfield in northeastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania, alongside Farmers Trust Company for trust, estate, and retirement services and Farmers National Insurance. The company completed its all-stock merger with Middlefield Banc Corp on March 2, 2026, converting each Middlefield share into 2.6 Farmers shares, and reported core deposits comprising approximately 93.0% of total deposits as of December 31, 2025.

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