Value
8.0/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.0 |
| P/S | 7.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.40
- ▸Attractively valued
FMNB · Why this verdict
Why Farmers National Banc (FMNB) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
FMNB screens attractively valued at an 8.4x forward P/E and 0.40 PEG alongside strong growth of 28% YoY and a stated 33% margin of safety. Valuation breakdown | PEG ratio should stay below 0.7 and revenue growth should remain above 15% YoY over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe quality notes flag no competitive moat, meaning this valuation and growth combination could compress quickly if loan growth slows in a competitive regional banking market. | ||
The stock has reached its target with -7.1% remaining upside, driving the V9 asymmetry gate to fail at -1.33. Engine gate (failed) | The asymmetry ratio should turn positive, above 0, over the next 12 months as either price consolidates or the target is raised. | →Stable |
| CounterContinued strong growth of 28% YoY could support analysts raising price targets without requiring a price pullback. | ||
The setup is classified as a BREAKOUT with a golden cross, price above all moving averages, and bullish MACD at RSI 56. Momentum breakdown | Price should hold above all key moving averages over the next 12 months, sustaining the breakout structure. | →Stable |
| CounterFalling OBV, volume distribution, alongside the breakout suggests underlying buying conviction may be weaker than the price action alone implies. | ||
The earnings history is mixed over the last 4 quarters, 2 beats, 1 miss, 1 inline, with a modest 3.38% average surprise, ahead of the next report in 18 days. Earnings | The company should return to a clean beat, above 5% surprise, at the July 22, 2026 report. | →Stable |
| CounterA modest average surprise with one recent miss suggests limited near-term catalyst strength compared to peers with cleaner beat streaks. | ||
Options markets show an elevated put/call ratio of 1.67 and high implied volatility (136%), signaling the market is pricing meaningful risk around the position. Risk breakdown | The put/call ratio should compress below 1.2 over the next 12 months as options-market risk pricing normalizes. | →Stable |
| CounterA small-cap regional bank with thin options volume can show a distorted put/call ratio driven by a small number of large trades rather than a genuine bearish signal. | ||
FMNB screens attractively valued at an 8.4x forward P/E and 0.40 PEG alongside strong growth of 28% YoY and a stated 33% margin of safety.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- PEG ratio should stay below 0.7 and revenue growth should remain above 15% YoY over the next 12 months.
CounterThe quality notes flag no competitive moat, meaning this valuation and growth combination could compress quickly if loan growth slows in a competitive regional banking market.
The stock has reached its target with -7.1% remaining upside, driving the V9 asymmetry gate to fail at -1.33.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- The asymmetry ratio should turn positive, above 0, over the next 12 months as either price consolidates or the target is raised.
CounterContinued strong growth of 28% YoY could support analysts raising price targets without requiring a price pullback.
The setup is classified as a BREAKOUT with a golden cross, price above all moving averages, and bullish MACD at RSI 56.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should hold above all key moving averages over the next 12 months, sustaining the breakout structure.
CounterFalling OBV, volume distribution, alongside the breakout suggests underlying buying conviction may be weaker than the price action alone implies.
The earnings history is mixed over the last 4 quarters, 2 beats, 1 miss, 1 inline, with a modest 3.38% average surprise, ahead of the next report in 18 days.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company should return to a clean beat, above 5% surprise, at the July 22, 2026 report.
CounterA modest average surprise with one recent miss suggests limited near-term catalyst strength compared to peers with cleaner beat streaks.
Options markets show an elevated put/call ratio of 1.67 and high implied volatility (136%), signaling the market is pricing meaningful risk around the position.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- The put/call ratio should compress below 1.2 over the next 12 months as options-market risk pricing normalizes.
CounterA small-cap regional bank with thin options volume can show a distorted put/call ratio driven by a small number of large trades rather than a genuine bearish signal.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
FMNB combines attractive valuation, strong 28% revenue growth, and a breakout technical setup with a price that has already reached its target — causing a negative asymmetry gate failure — a mixed recent earnings track record, and elevated options-market risk pricing.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.2 |
| ROA | 0.6 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Strong margins: 30%
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
7.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 9.4 |
| EPS growth | 6.1 |
- ▸Strong growth: 28% YoY
Momentum
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.1 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 1.4 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.1 |
| Price target | 6.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (3.0) — signal dampened
Insider
7.2/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $331,221 (0.039% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.3 |
| quality rank | 3.9 |
| growth rank | 7.9 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
8.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.2 |
| support resistance | 7.9 |
| 52w position | 8.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.3 |
| days to cover | 8.3 |
| volatility | 7.6 |
| put call | 2.2 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 8.3 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.67
- ▸High IV: 80%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.2 |
| dividend safety | 6.0 |
- ▸Earnings in 14 days
- ▸Dividend: 4.6%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (4)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.4<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.8=NEGATIVE
Warning (2)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:14d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.78
Upside
-3.9%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.8B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.8B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Technical at 8.3; weakest: Momentum at 3.4. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 8.3, Value at 8.0, and Growth at 7.8; the weakest are Momentum at 3.4, Quality at 5.1, and Catalyst at 5.2. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.78 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Valuation With Strong Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 15% YoY, down from the current 28%.
- P2Target Reached Negative Asymmetry
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio rises above 0, clearing the current -1.33 gate failure.
- P3Breakout Technical Setup
Trip ifPrice falls below the 50-day moving average, breaking the current golden-cross breakout structure.
- P4Mixed Earnings Track Record
Trip ifEarnings surprise falls below 0% (a miss) at the July 22, 2026 report.
- P5Elevated Options Risk Skew
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 1.20, down from the current 1.67.