Value
7.9/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.8 |
| P/S | 7.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.49
- ▸Attractively valued
FMNB · Why this verdict
Why Farmers National Banc (FMNB) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Farmers National Banc is a low-multiple regional bank (forward P/E 8.9x) with strong reported growth and a 4.6% dividend, but it trades 7.9% above the analyst target and reports earnings in four days.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A forward P/E of 8.9x and PEG of 0.41 make the shares attractively valued for a profitable bank. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E stays below 11x while earnings grow over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterLow returns on equity (component 3.6) and no competitive moat explain the discount, and the stock is already within 4.7% of its 52-week high. | ||
Growth is strong at 56% year over year, with quarterly revenue of $100.5M versus $69.8M a year earlier. Growth breakdown | Revenue holds above the $100M quarterly level, showing growth is durable and not a one-off. | →Stable |
| CounterA jump this large in a mature bank often comes from an acquisition or a data-source issue (the revenue data is flagged as divergent), so organic growth may be far lower. | ||
EPS beat estimates in three of four recent quarters with an average surprise of 5.49%, the one miss being $0.40 versus $0.47 in January. Earnings | EPS beats consensus in at least three of the next four quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe January miss was 15%, larger than the average beat, and earnings arrive in 4 days with options pricing 98% implied volatility. | ||
At $15.69 the stock trades 7.9% above the $14.45 analyst target, leaving no analyst-supported upside. Upside pct | Analysts raise targets above the current price after upcoming results. | →Stable |
| CounterThe golden-cross breakout with rising volume suggests the market may be correctly ahead of analyst targets. | ||
The 4.6% dividend yield provides income while waiting for price appreciation. Catalyst breakdown | The dividend is maintained or raised over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterDividend safety scores only 6.0 out of 10 and an elevated put/call ratio of 1.50 shows traders hedging downside. | ||
A forward P/E of 8.9x and PEG of 0.41 make the shares attractively valued for a profitable bank.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E stays below 11x while earnings grow over the next 12 months.
CounterLow returns on equity (component 3.6) and no competitive moat explain the discount, and the stock is already within 4.7% of its 52-week high.
Growth is strong at 56% year over year, with quarterly revenue of $100.5M versus $69.8M a year earlier.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue holds above the $100M quarterly level, showing growth is durable and not a one-off.
CounterA jump this large in a mature bank often comes from an acquisition or a data-source issue (the revenue data is flagged as divergent), so organic growth may be far lower.
EPS beat estimates in three of four recent quarters with an average surprise of 5.49%, the one miss being $0.40 versus $0.47 in January.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS beats consensus in at least three of the next four quarters.
CounterThe January miss was 15%, larger than the average beat, and earnings arrive in 4 days with options pricing 98% implied volatility.
At $15.69 the stock trades 7.9% above the $14.45 analyst target, leaving no analyst-supported upside.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analysts raise targets above the current price after upcoming results.
CounterThe golden-cross breakout with rising volume suggests the market may be correctly ahead of analyst targets.
The 4.6% dividend yield provides income while waiting for price appreciation.
↑ImprovingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The dividend is maintained or raised over the next 12 months.
CounterDividend safety scores only 6.0 out of 10 and an elevated put/call ratio of 1.50 shows traders hedging downside.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.6 |
| ROA | 0.7 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Strong margins: 30%
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
6.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 3.1 |
- ▸Strong growth: 56% YoY
Momentum
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 7.6 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 4.3 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.5 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.4 |
Insider
7.1/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 9.4 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $57,900 (0.006% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.7 |
| quality rank | 4.4 |
| growth rank | 9.5 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.9 |
| support resistance | 3.6 |
| 52w position | 9.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.1 |
| days to cover | 4.5 |
| volatility | 7.7 |
| put call | 3.3 |
| implied vol | 3.3 |
| beta | 8.2 |
| news risk | 5.5 |
- ▸High IV: 60%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| surprise avg | 6.6 |
| dividend safety | 6.0 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 4.7%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:5.5>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.3=NEGATIVE
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:5.5<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.33
Upside
-6.7%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 57, MACD bullish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.9B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.9B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.5>=4.5. Top dim: Value at 7.9; weakest: Technical at 5.2. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.9, Insider at 7.1, and Growth at 6.5; the weakest are Technical at 5.2, Quality at 5.2, and Momentum at 5.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.33 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Low Multiple Regional Bank
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 11x from the current 8.9x.
- P2Strong Reported Growth
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $80M from the latest $100.5M.
- P3Mostly Consistent Earnings Beats
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifAnalyst target rises above $17.26, at least 10% above the current $15.69 price.
- P5Dividend Income Support
Trip ifDividend yield falls below 3.0% from the current 4.6%.