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FMAOFarmers & Merchants Bancorp, InHold5.9·$29.48-2.69%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

FMAO combines attractive valuation and strong growth momentum with a price that has already reached its target — causing a negative asymmetry gate failure — and extreme insider selling, leaving overbought technicals and an institutional-constraint edge as the key remaining variables.

Thesis pillars

  • Attractive Valuation With GrowthStable
  • Target Reached Negative AsymmetryStable
  • Extreme Insider SellingStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, In (FMAO) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueGrowthModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $29.48, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum.

Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc. is an Ohio-based financial holding company operating The Farmers & Merchants State Bank, a community bank serving Northwest Ohio, Northeast Indiana, and Southeast Michigan since 1897 with a focus on agricultural, commercial, and residential... Read more

$29.48+6.4% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#127 of 223 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield2.99%(5y avg 3.27%)Payout34.69%sustainable
Stop $27.84Target $31.36(resistance)A.R:R -2.5:1
Analyst target$29.83+1.2%3 analysts
$31.36our TP
$29.48price
$29.83mean
$29
$32

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $29.48, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum. Chart setup: RSI 55 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 21d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and clean insider activity. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, In

About Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, In

Farmers & Merchants Bancorp's banking subsidiary has served Northwest Ohio, Northeast Indiana, and Southeast Michigan since 1897, ranking fourth among roughly five other depository institutions in its markets with a 5.14% deposit share as of June 30, 2025. The bank employed 474 full-time-equivalent people at December 31, 2025, operates three loan production offices, and is regulated primarily by the Ohio Division of Financial Institutions and the FDIC.

The bank's loan portfolio skews heavily toward agriculture, financing farmland, farm equipment, livestock, and operating loans for seed, fertilizer, and feed for customers in its Ohio, Indiana, and Michigan footprint, alongside consumer and commercial real estate lending; it does not run a sub-prime lending program. Farmers participates in the Freddie Mac and Farm Service Agency guaranteed secondary agricultural markets and Small Business Lending programs, along with Ohio's Ag-Link, Grow Now, and Ohio Homebuyers Plus initiatives, and normally retains servicing rights on loans it sells. Uninsured deposits represented 20.6% of total deposits as of December 31, 2025 (12.8% net of collateralized public-deposit protection), a share the bank says is held down by use of CDARS and Insured Cash Sweep products. Net interest margin improved to 3.70% in 2025 from 3.34% in 2024, aided by loan repricing and lower funding costs.

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Farmers & Merchants' credit book carries structural exposure to a single regional economy: the bank's operations and loan portfolio are concentrated in northwest Ohio and northeast Indiana, regions the 10-K flags as increasingly affected by heavy rainfall, flooding, tornadoes, and drought that could raise default rates and depress collateral values on agricultural loans tied to corn, wheat, and soybean crops and to hog and beef-calf livestock operations. Most agricultural customers use crop insurance, and some use hedging, to mitigate a portion of this exposure, but the bank says the long-term financial stability of its regional economy remains vulnerable to these climate-related risks.

See also: Financial Services · Banks - Regional

From Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, In's most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Jul 28, 202621d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.8
P/E (Fwd)10.2
Mkt Cap$425M
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn29.0%
ROE10.0%
Rev Growth16.5%
Beta0.81
Dividend2.99%
Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral
IV117%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMloan_portfolioagricultural loans
    10-K Item 1: 'a substantial amount of the loan portfolio is comprised of loans made to customers in the agricultural industry for such items as farmland, farm equipment, livestock and operating loans for seed, fertilizer, and feed'
  • LOWloan_portfoliouninsured deposits21%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Uninsured deposits based on FDIC coverage as a percentage of total deposits was 20.6% as of December 31, 2025'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Obv
1.0
Volume
1.0
Macd
3.5
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.4<4.5A.R:R -2.5=NEGATIVEINSIDER 0.58%=EXTREMENo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 21d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
55 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $28.00Resistance $32.00

Price Targets

$28
$31
A.Upside+6.4%
A.R:R-2.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-14.0% upside)
! momentum at 3.4 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (21d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FMAO stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $29.48, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum. Chart setup: RSI 55 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $31.36 (+6.4%), stop $27.84 (−5.9%), A.R:R -2.5:1. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FMAO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $31.36 (+6.4% upside). Target $31.36 (+6.4%), stop $27.84 (−5.9%), A.R:R -2.5:1. Stop-loss: $27.84.

What are the risks of investing in FMAO?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum.

Is FMAO overvalued or undervalued?

Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, In trades at a P/E of 11.8 (forward 10.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about FMAO?

8 analysts cover FMAO with a consensus score of 2.4/5. Average price target: $30.

What does Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, In do?Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc. is an Ohio-based financial holding company operating The Farmers & Merchants State...

Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc. is an Ohio-based financial holding company operating The Farmers & Merchants State Bank, a community bank serving Northwest Ohio, Northeast Indiana, and Southeast Michigan since 1897 with a focus on agricultural, commercial, and residential lending. The bank employed 474 full-time-equivalent people as of December 31, 2025, and ranked fourth with a 5.14% deposit market share in its primary markets as of June 30, 2025, competing against larger regional banks including Huntington National Bank, Fifth Third Bank, and PNC.

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