Value
7.8/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.6 |
| P/S | 8.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.27
- ▸Attractively valued
FMAO · Why this verdict
Why Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, In (FMAO) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
FMAO screens attractively valued with a PEG ratio of 0.27 and a 10.2x forward P/E, alongside a strong growth profile per the bull case. Valuation breakdown | PEG ratio should stay below 0.5 and the 'attractively valued' flag should persist over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe bank's quality notes flag no competitive moat, meaning this valuation support could compress quickly if regional banking competition intensifies. | ||
The stock has reached its target with -17.3% remaining upside, driving the V9 asymmetry gate to fail at -1.51. Engine gate (failed) | The asymmetry ratio should turn positive, above 0, over the next 12 months as either price consolidates or the target is raised. | →Stable |
| CounterContinued strong growth and positive momentum could support analysts raising price targets without requiring a price pullback. | ||
The V9 insider gate failed at an EXTREME severity level, with heavy insider selling of $2.45M representing 0.58% of market cap. Insider selling pct mcap | Insider selling should fall back under the extreme threshold, below 0.3% of market cap, over the next 12 months, or reverse to net buying. | →Stable |
| CounterInsider selling at a small community bank can reflect routine estate planning or diversification by long-tenured directors rather than a negative view of the business. | ||
The stock is technically overbought (RSI 70) and trading near its 52-week high, 4.2% away, with rising OBV supporting continued positive momentum. Momentum breakdown | RSI should cool back below 65 without a disorderly price decline, and price should hold above the 200-day MA over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterAn overbought reading combined with extreme insider selling and a failed asymmetry gate is a combination that has historically preceded pullbacks in similar small-cap bank setups. | ||
The engine classifies the edge as institutional constraint, reflecting the bank's small size, $0.4B, keeping it below the reach of institutional capital. Edge rationale | The market cap should stay in the sub-$5B range that keeps this edge intact, or the valuation gap should close as size grows, over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA market cap that grows past institutional thresholds without the valuation gap closing would indicate the constraint premise was wrong. | ||
FMAO screens attractively valued with a PEG ratio of 0.27 and a 10.2x forward P/E, alongside a strong growth profile per the bull case.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- PEG ratio should stay below 0.5 and the 'attractively valued' flag should persist over the next 12 months.
CounterThe bank's quality notes flag no competitive moat, meaning this valuation support could compress quickly if regional banking competition intensifies.
The stock has reached its target with -17.3% remaining upside, driving the V9 asymmetry gate to fail at -1.51.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- The asymmetry ratio should turn positive, above 0, over the next 12 months as either price consolidates or the target is raised.
CounterContinued strong growth and positive momentum could support analysts raising price targets without requiring a price pullback.
The V9 insider gate failed at an EXTREME severity level, with heavy insider selling of $2.45M representing 0.58% of market cap.
→StableInsider selling pct mcap
- Expectation
- Insider selling should fall back under the extreme threshold, below 0.3% of market cap, over the next 12 months, or reverse to net buying.
CounterInsider selling at a small community bank can reflect routine estate planning or diversification by long-tenured directors rather than a negative view of the business.
The stock is technically overbought (RSI 70) and trading near its 52-week high, 4.2% away, with rising OBV supporting continued positive momentum.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI should cool back below 65 without a disorderly price decline, and price should hold above the 200-day MA over the next 12 months.
CounterAn overbought reading combined with extreme insider selling and a failed asymmetry gate is a combination that has historically preceded pullbacks in similar small-cap bank setups.
The engine classifies the edge as institutional constraint, reflecting the bank's small size, $0.4B, keeping it below the reach of institutional capital.
→StableEdge rationale
- Expectation
- The market cap should stay in the sub-$5B range that keeps this edge intact, or the valuation gap should close as size grows, over the next 12 months.
CounterA market cap that grows past institutional thresholds without the valuation gap closing would indicate the constraint premise was wrong.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
FMAO combines attractive valuation and strong growth momentum with a price that has already reached its target — causing a negative asymmetry gate failure — and extreme insider selling, leaving overbought technicals and an institutional-constraint edge as the key remaining variables.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.3 |
| ROA | 0.7 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Strong margins: 29%
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
8.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.6 |
| EPS growth | 9.5 |
Momentum
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.5 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 1.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.2 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
4.1/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 8.3 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $2,447,682 (0.576% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.4 |
| quality rank | 4.0 |
| growth rank | 5.9 |
Technical
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.1 |
| support resistance | 6.3 |
| 52w position | 8.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.5 |
| days to cover | 9.1 |
| volatility | 5.5 |
| put call | 6.7 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 8.2 |
- ▸High IV: 117%
Catalyst
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.6 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (5)
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:21d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:3.4<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-2.5=NEGATIVE
- INSIDER:0.58%=EXTREME
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-2.51
Upside
-14.0%
Downside
5.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 55 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 21d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.4B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: 8K:CLEAN. Top dim: Growth at 8.1; weakest: Momentum at 3.4. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.1, Value at 7.8, and Technical at 6.6; the weakest are Momentum at 3.4, Insider at 4.1, and Sentiment at 5.1. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -2.51 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Valuation With Growth
Trip ifPEG ratio rises above 0.6, up from the current 0.27.
- P2Target Reached Negative Asymmetry
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio rises above 0, clearing the current -1.51 gate failure.
- P3Extreme Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider selling falls below 0.3% of market cap, down from the current 0.58% extreme reading.
- P4Overbought Momentum Near 52 Week High
Trip ifPrice falls more than 5% below the 200-day moving average, breaking the current uptrend.
- P5Institutional Constraint Edge
Trip ifMarket cap rises above $5B, removing the institutional-constraint classification.