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FISIFinancial Institutions, Inc.Hold6.1·$37.64-2.26%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

FISI carries a perfect 4-quarter earnings beat streak, attractive PEG valuation, and a 32% margin of safety within a breakout technical setup, but has already reached its price target, causing a negative asymmetry gate failure.

Thesis pillars

  • Attractive Valuation With Margin Of SafetyStable
  • Earnings Beat Streak CatalystStable
  • Target Reached Negative AsymmetryStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Financial Institutions, Inc. (FISI) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

HoldValueGrowthModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $37.64, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial mortgage loans (50.3%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Financial Institutions, Inc. is a New York-based financial holding company operating through Five Star Bank (99% of consolidated assets), a 48-branch community bank serving Western and Central New York plus commercial loan production offices in Baltimore, Maryland and Syracuse,... Read more

$37.64+4.8% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#107 of 223 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield3.23%(5y avg 4.83%)Payout32.55%sustainable
Stop $35.72Target $39.45(resistance)A.R:R -2.6:1
Analyst target$38.50+2.3%2 analysts
$39.45our TP
$37.64price
$38.50mean
$39

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $37.64, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial mortgage loans (50.3%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 16d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Financial Institutions, Inc.

About Financial Institutions, Inc.

Financial Institutions, Inc., a $6.27 billion-asset bank holding company, operates through Five Star Bank — 48 full-service branches across Western and Central New York counties plus commercial loan production offices in Baltimore, Maryland and Syracuse, New York — and Courier Capital, a registered investment advisor with $3.60 billion in assets under management. Commercial mortgage loans made up 50.3% of the Bank's loan portfolio at December 31, 2025, with consumer indirect/automobile loans at 17%, commercial business loans at 16%, and residential real estate at 16%.

Five Star Bank funds its $4.61 billion loan book with $5.29 billion of deposits gathered through a branch network holding leading local market share in several counties — including 67.34% in Wyoming County and above 33% in Seneca and Steuben counties — while competing for share in larger, more competitive markets like Erie (Buffalo, 0.67% share) and Monroe (Rochester, 2.23% share) counties. Commercial mortgage lending, mostly secured by first liens and amortized over 15 to 30 years, is the largest single loan category at 50.3% of the portfolio, while the consumer book is concentrated in indirect automobile loans originated through franchised new-car dealers across Western, Central, and the Capital District of New York. Courier Capital, the company's fee-based wealth management, investment consulting, and retirement-plan business, contributed $11.6 million of revenue in 2025 and opened a Sarasota, Florida office in September 2025 — its first location outside the bank's traditional New York and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania footprint.

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Financial Institutions' results are tied tightly to one region: the 10-K states that the majority of its operations are concentrated in the Western and Central New York regions, so its results depend largely on economic conditions there and in surrounding areas rather than a nationally diversified footprint. That geographic concentration compounds an asset-class concentration within the loan book — commercial mortgages alone account for 50.3% of total loans, more than three times the next-largest category — so a downturn specific to Western/Central New York commercial real estate would flow through a materially larger share of the balance sheet than a proportionate, diversified loan mix would suggest.

See also: Financial Services · Banks - Regional

From Financial Institutions, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 23, 202616d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 32%
Risks
Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial mortgage loans (50.3%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.1
P/E (Fwd)9.3
Mkt Cap$766M
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn33.0%
ROE12.9%
Rev Growth11.3%
Beta0.66
Dividend3.23%
Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

IV59%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHloan_portfoliocommercial mortgage loans50%
    10-K Item 1: 'our commercial mortgage loan portfolio totaled $2.34 billion, or 50.3% of our total loan portfolio'
  • LOWloan_portfolioconsumer indirect automobile loans17%
    10-K Item 1: 'our consumer indirect portfolio totaled $807.3 million, or 17% of our total loan portfolio. Outstanding consumer loan balances were concentrated in indirect automobile loans.'
  • LOWloan_portfoliocommercial business loans16%
    10-K Item 1: 'our commercial business loan portfolio totaled $738.3 million, or 16% of our total loan portfolio'
  • MEDIUMGeographicWestern and Central New York
    10-K Item 1A: 'The majority of our operations are concentrated in the Western and Central New York regions. As a result of this geographic concentration, our results depend largely on economic conditions in these and surrounding areas.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
1.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
1.2
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 2.9<4.5A.R:R -2.6=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 16d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
54 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $36.43Resistance $40.26

Price Targets

$36
$39
A.Upside+4.8%
A.R:R-2.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-13.1% upside)
! momentum at 2.9 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-23 (16d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FISI stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $37.64, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial mortgage loans (50.3%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $39.45 (+4.8%), stop $35.72 (−5.4%), A.R:R -2.6:1. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FISI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $39.45 (+4.8% upside). Target $39.45 (+4.8%), stop $35.72 (−5.4%), A.R:R -2.6:1. Stop-loss: $35.72.

What are the risks of investing in FISI?

Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial mortgage loans (50.3%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum.

Is FISI overvalued or undervalued?

Financial Institutions, Inc. trades at a P/E of 10.1 (forward 9.3). TrendMatrix value score: 9.2/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about FISI?

8 analysts cover FISI with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $39.

What does Financial Institutions, Inc. do?Financial Institutions, Inc. is a New York-based financial holding company operating through Five Star Bank (99% of...

Financial Institutions, Inc. is a New York-based financial holding company operating through Five Star Bank (99% of consolidated assets), a 48-branch community bank serving Western and Central New York plus commercial loan production offices in Baltimore, Maryland and Syracuse, New York, and Courier Capital, a registered investment advisor with $3.60 billion in assets under management. At December 31, 2025, the company had $6.27 billion in total assets, $5.21 billion in deposits, and a loan portfolio concentrated in commercial mortgages (50.3%), consumer indirect/automobile loans (17%), commer

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