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ESPREsperion Therapeutics, Inc.Sell5.7·$3.19+0.95%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Esperion shows real top-line growth but is weighed down by a consecutive earnings-miss streak, falling forward estimates, net insider selling, and a risk/reward setup that has already failed the engine's asymmetry gate.

Thesis pillars

  • Revenue Growth Despite LossesStable
  • Consecutive Earnings MissesStable
  • Estimates Trending DownStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Esperion Therapeutics, Inc. (ESPR) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 3/5GrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

Sell if holding. At $3.19, A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: two products (bempedoic acid, bempedoic acid/ezetimibe tablet); Concentration risk — Supplier: sole source third-party manufacturers.

Esperion Therapeutics is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company that markets NEXLETOL (bempedoic acid) and NEXLIZET (bempedoic acid/ezetimibe), FDA-approved oral, non-statin medicines that lower LDL cholesterol and reduce cardiovascular risk. The company generated $159.6... Read more

QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield-6.12%
Stop $3.15Target $3.67(default +15%)A.R:R -1.0:1
Analyst target$3.19+0.0%4 analysts
$3.67our TP
$3.19price
$3.19mean
$4

Sell if holding. At $3.19, A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: two products (bempedoic acid, bempedoic acid/ezetimibe tablet); Concentration risk — Supplier: sole source third-party manufacturers. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 28d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Esperion Therapeutics, Inc.

About Esperion Therapeutics, Inc.

Esperion Therapeutics markets NEXLETOL (bempedoic acid) and NEXLIZET (bempedoic acid/ezetimibe), FDA-approved oral non-statin therapies for cardiovascular risk reduction, generating $159.6 million in net U.S. product revenue in 2025. International sales flow through partners Daiichi Sankyo Europe, Otsuka in Japan, and HLS Therapeutics in Canada, with expanded indications approved in the U.S., EU, and UK since March 2024.

Esperion earns nearly all of its revenue from prescription sales of the bempedoic acid franchise to patients with established or high-risk cardiovascular disease who cannot tolerate statins, distributed largely through U.S. specialty and retail pharmacy channels with reimbursement subject to prior-authorization requirements the company supports with a dedicated assistance program. Ex-U.S. commercialization runs through licensing partners who market the combination as NILEMDO and NUSTENDI across Europe and territories in Asia, generating royalty and milestone income rather than direct sales. The company does not own manufacturing facilities and depends on sole source third-party suppliers to produce both bempedoic acid and the combination tablet, while the combination product also depends on continued market availability of ezetimibe from outside producers. Beyond the approved franchise, Esperion is advancing a preclinical pipeline of next-generation ACLY inhibitors targeting primary sclerosing cholangitis.

Show full overview

Esperion's near-term risk concentrates in its supply chain rather than its clinical pipeline: the 10-K discloses that the company may rely on sole source third-party suppliers to manufacture bempedoic acid and the combination tablet, with no guaranteed minimum production commitments from those manufacturers. The ezetimibe component compounds this exposure, since outside producers are under no obligation to maintain current output or continue making the ingredient available at all. Because the company depends almost entirely on these two products for revenue, a manufacturing disruption at either supplier could directly impair commercial supply rather than merely delay a pipeline readout.

See also: Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

From Esperion Therapeutics, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-08

Recent Developments — Esperion Therapeutics, Inc.

Latest news

Generated 2026-07-08T23:03:58Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 4, 202628d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong growth profile
Positive momentum
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: two products (bempedoic acid, bempedoic acid/ezetimibe tablet)
Concentration risk — Supplier: sole source third-party manufacturers
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)10.8
Mkt Cap$812M
EV/EBITDA15.8
Profit Mgn-1.8%
ROE
Rev Growth23.2%
Beta1.06
DividendNone
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.25bullish
IV71%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProducttwo products (bempedoic acid, bempedoic acid/ezetimibe tablet)
    10-K Item 1A: 'We depend almost entirely on the success of two products, bempedoic acid and the bempedoic acid / ezetimibe combination tablet.'
  • HIGHSuppliersole source third-party manufacturers
    10-K Item 1A: 'We may rely on sole source third-party suppliers to manufacture and supply bempedoic acid, the bempedoic acid / ezetimibe combination tablet'
  • MEDIUMSupplierezetimibe supply
    10-K Item 1A: 'is dependent on the continued availability of ezetimibe in the marketplace, and there can be no assurance that the current availability of ezetimibe will continue'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-06-01Item 5.02LOW
    At the May 28, 2026 annual meeting, stockholders approved an amendment to the 2022 Stock Option and Incentive Plan increasing shares authorized for issuance by 7,000,000. Routine equity-plan governance action; no officer or director departure.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.0
52w Position
5.3

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
3.5
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
GatesA.R:R -1.0=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 7.3>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 28d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
60 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $3.13Resistance $3.19

Price Targets

$3
$4
A.Upside+15.0%
A.R:R-1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-15.0% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (28d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ESPR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $3.19, A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: two products (bempedoic acid, bempedoic acid/ezetimibe tablet); Concentration risk — Supplier: sole source third-party manufacturers. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $3.15. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ESPR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $3.67 (+15.0% upside). Prior stop was $3.15. Stop-loss: $3.15.

What are the risks of investing in ESPR?

Concentration risk — Product: two products (bempedoic acid, bempedoic acid/ezetimibe tablet); Concentration risk — Supplier: sole source third-party manufacturers; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is ESPR overvalued or undervalued?

Esperion Therapeutics, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 10.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ESPR?

11 analysts cover ESPR with a consensus score of 2.5/5. Average price target: $3.

What does Esperion Therapeutics, Inc. do?Esperion Therapeutics is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company that markets NEXLETOL (bempedoic acid) and...

Esperion Therapeutics is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company that markets NEXLETOL (bempedoic acid) and NEXLIZET (bempedoic acid/ezetimibe), FDA-approved oral, non-statin medicines that lower LDL cholesterol and reduce cardiovascular risk. The company generated $159.6 million in net U.S. product revenue in 2025, with international sales through partners including Daiichi Sankyo Europe, Otsuka in Japan, and HLS Therapeutics in Canada. Esperion depends almost entirely on this two-product franchise and does not own manufacturing facilities, relying on sole-source third-party suppliers.

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Latest news

Latest News

Benzinga7d ago