Value
6.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.8x
ESPR · Why this verdict
Why Esperion Therapeutics (ESPR) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Esperion is showing strong top-line growth of 23% year-over-year, per the engine's growth notes. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should stay above 15% YoY over the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth-dimension confidence is only 0.33, and the company remains cash-burning (FCF at -12% of revenue), so revenue growth may not translate into sustainable profitability. | ||
Esperion has missed earnings estimates in 3 of its last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of -68%, a well below-average track record. Earnings | The miss streak should end, moving toward at least 2 of the next 4 quarters beating estimates. | →Stable |
| CounterPersistent miss patterns in specialty pharma can reflect structurally unpredictable non-GAAP charges rather than a fixable operational issue. | ||
Forward earnings estimates have fallen 35.2% over the past 30 days, and the catalyst notes flag earnings concerns, consistent with the bear case's downward-trending estimates. Catalyst breakdown | Estimate revisions should stabilize or turn positive if the deterioration is temporary. | →Stable |
| CounterA near-term stabilization is plausible if the estimate cuts were a one-time reset following the latest earnings miss rather than an ongoing trend. | ||
The risk/reward setup has failed the engine's asymmetry gate outright, with a ratio of -0.95 — the stock has already reached its analyst-target-derived upside while facing 15% downside to stop. Reward-to-risk math | The asymmetry ratio should remain negative as long as the stock trades above its analyst-target-implied fair value. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst targets can lag a genuine re-rating; if consensus targets are raised following any positive catalyst, upside could reopen quickly despite the current negative reading. | ||
Insiders have been net sellers over the past 90 days, selling $240,364 with zero offsetting buys, and the engine's insider signal reads bearish. Insider | The insider signal should remain bearish or neutral as long as selling continues without offsetting purchases. | →Stable |
| CounterThe dollar amount sold is modest relative to market cap (0.03%), and could reflect routine diversification rather than a negative view on the company's prospects. | ||
Esperion is showing strong top-line growth of 23% year-over-year, per the engine's growth notes.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should stay above 15% YoY over the next four quarters.
CounterGrowth-dimension confidence is only 0.33, and the company remains cash-burning (FCF at -12% of revenue), so revenue growth may not translate into sustainable profitability.
Esperion has missed earnings estimates in 3 of its last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of -68%, a well below-average track record.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The miss streak should end, moving toward at least 2 of the next 4 quarters beating estimates.
CounterPersistent miss patterns in specialty pharma can reflect structurally unpredictable non-GAAP charges rather than a fixable operational issue.
Forward earnings estimates have fallen 35.2% over the past 30 days, and the catalyst notes flag earnings concerns, consistent with the bear case's downward-trending estimates.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Estimate revisions should stabilize or turn positive if the deterioration is temporary.
CounterA near-term stabilization is plausible if the estimate cuts were a one-time reset following the latest earnings miss rather than an ongoing trend.
The risk/reward setup has failed the engine's asymmetry gate outright, with a ratio of -0.95 — the stock has already reached its analyst-target-derived upside while facing 15% downside to stop.
→StableReward-to-risk math
- Expectation
- The asymmetry ratio should remain negative as long as the stock trades above its analyst-target-implied fair value.
CounterAnalyst targets can lag a genuine re-rating; if consensus targets are raised following any positive catalyst, upside could reopen quickly despite the current negative reading.
Insiders have been net sellers over the past 90 days, selling $240,364 with zero offsetting buys, and the engine's insider signal reads bearish.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- The insider signal should remain bearish or neutral as long as selling continues without offsetting purchases.
CounterThe dollar amount sold is modest relative to market cap (0.03%), and could reflect routine diversification rather than a negative view on the company's prospects.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Esperion shows real top-line growth but is weighed down by a consecutive earnings-miss streak, falling forward estimates, net insider selling, and a risk/reward setup that has already failed the engine's asymmetry gate.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 8.0 |
| Gross margin | 7.6 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.6 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 7.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -12% of revenue
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
8.3/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.3 |
- ▸Strong growth: 23% YoY
Momentum
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.8 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 10.0 |
| vol acceleration | 5.5 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $240,364 (0.030% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.0 |
| quality rank | 3.4 |
| growth rank | 7.4 |
Technical
1.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.0 |
| 52w position | 5.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.9 |
| days to cover | 8.7 |
| volatility | 10.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 1.5 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.7 |
- ▸High IV: 71%
- ▸Above max pain $0
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
2.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position. | News modifier -1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULT|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (6)
- MOMENTUM:7.3>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:28d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.0=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.00
Upside
-15.0%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.8B<$5B
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: MOMENTUM:7.3>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 8.3; weakest: Technical at 1.8. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.3, Momentum at 7.3, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.5; the weakest are Technical at 1.8, Catalyst at 2.1, and Quality at 4.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Revenue Growth Despite Losses
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Consecutive Earnings Misses
Trip ifBeat count for the next 4 reported quarters rises to 3 or more (from the current 1 of 4).
- P3Estimates Trending Down
Trip ifThe 30-day estimate revision rises above 0% from the current -35.2%.
- P4Negative Asymmetry Gate Failure
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio rises above 0.5 (from the current -0.95), with upside to target beginning to exceed downside to stop.
- P5Insider Selling Signal
Trip ifInsider buy count exceeds sell count over a rolling 90-day window, flipping the signal away from bearish.