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DSGRDistribution Solutions Group, ISell5.0·$27.00+0.22%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

DSGR offers an attractive valuation and strong cash conversion, but a confirmed technical downtrend, consecutive earnings misses, and a death-cross hard block currently override the fundamental case.

Thesis pillars

  • Attractive Valuation Cash ConversionStable
  • Confirmed Technical DowntrendStable
  • Consecutive Earnings MissesStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Distribution Solutions Group, I (DSGR) Stock Analysis

Inst Constrain edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthModerate Confidence

Industrials · Industrial Distribution

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $27.00 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Thin upside margin: 8.6%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5.

Distribution Solutions Group, Inc. ("DSG"), a Delaware corporation, is a global specialty distribution company providing value-added distribution solutions to the maintenance, repair and operations ("MRO"), original equipment manufacturer ("OEM") and industrial technology... Read more

$27.00+8.6% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#16 of 19 Industrial Distribution
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield3.11%
Stop $25.80Target $29.32(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 1.6:1
Analyst target$34.50+27.8%2 analysts
$29.32our TP
$27.00price
$34.50mean
$36

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $27.00 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Thin upside margin: 8.6%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 22d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 202622d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Risks
Thin upside margin: 8.6%
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)225.5
P/E (Fwd)16.7
Mkt Cap$1.3B
EV/EBITDA13.3
Profit Mgn0.3%
ROE0.9%
Rev Growth3.8%
Beta0.56
DividendNone
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

IV89%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
1.1
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/2M

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
3.2
Growth Rank
3.3
Value Rank
4.2

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.5
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Ma Position
1.0
Volume
1.5
Macd
2.1
Rsi
4.5
Obv
9.7
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.8<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 1.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 22d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
45 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $26.60Resistance $28.75

Price Targets

$26
$29
A.Upside+8.6%
A.R:R1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.8 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (22d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DSGR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $27.00 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Thin upside margin: 8.6%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $25.80. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the DSGR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $29.32 (+8.6% upside). Prior stop was $25.80. Stop-loss: $25.80.

What are the risks of investing in DSGR?

Thin upside margin: 8.6%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is DSGR overvalued or undervalued?

Distribution Solutions Group, I trades at a P/E of 225.5 (forward 16.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about DSGR?

9 analysts cover DSGR with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $35.

What does Distribution Solutions Group, I do?Distribution Solutions Group, Inc. ("DSG"), a Delaware corporation, is a global specialty distribution company...

Distribution Solutions Group, Inc. ("DSG"), a Delaware corporation, is a global specialty distribution company providing value-added distribution solutions to the maintenance, repair and operations ("MRO"), original equipment manufacturer ("OEM") and industrial technology markets.

Related stocks: GIC (Global Industrial Company) · DNOW (DNOW Inc.) · REZI (Resideo Technologies, Inc.) · SITE (SiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc.) · MSM (MSC Industrial Direct Company, )
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