Value
9.2/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.8 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 6.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.02
- ▸Attractively valued
CPS · Why this verdict
Why Cooper-Standard Holdings (CPS) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score4.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has missed earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including a -210.86% miss and a -75.28% miss, pulling the trailing average surprise to -32.95%. Earnings | If this pattern holds, expect continued misses with a deeply negative average surprise in upcoming reporting periods, including the report due in 26 days. | →Stable |
| CounterThe oldest of the last four quarters was actually a large beat (+207.99%), showing the company is capable of significant positive surprises when conditions align. | ||
Quality sits below the engine's investability floor at 2.9 versus a 4.0 minimum, driven by the absence of a competitive moat. Quality breakdown | Quality should rise above the 4.0 floor as margins stabilize over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA current ratio of 5.2 and a Piotroski F-score of 6.7, a comparatively solid reading, suggest the balance sheet and fundamentals may be more resilient than the quality score alone implies. | ||
Value scores near-max at 9.2, with the stock trading at a 5.8x forward P/E and a 0.02 PEG ratio, and the risk-reward setup shows a 3.92 asymmetry ratio with 44.9% modeled upside against just 11.5% downside. Valuation breakdown | The asymmetry ratio should hold above 1.5 and the value score should remain elevated as the multiple stays statistically cheap over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA peer value rank of 9.12 paired with a peer quality rank of just 0.94 is a classic value-trap signature, suggesting the cheapness may already reflect deteriorating fundamentals rather than a mispricing. | ||
Momentum has failed the engine's gate badly at just 1.6 versus a 4.5 threshold, and a death-cross hard block has also failed, with technical notes confirming a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Engine gate (failed) | For the setup to become actionable, momentum needs to climb back above 4.5 and the death-cross block needs to clear over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe technical score itself, driven by Bollinger and support/resistance components, reads a moderate 6.0, and the chart pattern is officially classified as unclear rather than a confirmed continued breakdown. | ||
The put/call ratio is elevated at 1.67, flagged explicitly as a key risk, indicating options positioning skewed toward puts relative to calls. Key risks | If this risk holds, expect the put/call ratio to remain elevated or options market sentiment to stay bearish over the next few months. | →Stable |
| CounterOptions-market max pain sits at $50, nearly double the current $26.39 price, suggesting underlying options positioning may still reflect longer-term bullish expectations despite the elevated near-term put/call skew. | ||
The company has missed earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including a -210.86% miss and a -75.28% miss, pulling the trailing average surprise to -32.95%.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- If this pattern holds, expect continued misses with a deeply negative average surprise in upcoming reporting periods, including the report due in 26 days.
CounterThe oldest of the last four quarters was actually a large beat (+207.99%), showing the company is capable of significant positive surprises when conditions align.
Quality sits below the engine's investability floor at 2.9 versus a 4.0 minimum, driven by the absence of a competitive moat.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality should rise above the 4.0 floor as margins stabilize over the next 12 months.
CounterA current ratio of 5.2 and a Piotroski F-score of 6.7, a comparatively solid reading, suggest the balance sheet and fundamentals may be more resilient than the quality score alone implies.
Value scores near-max at 9.2, with the stock trading at a 5.8x forward P/E and a 0.02 PEG ratio, and the risk-reward setup shows a 3.92 asymmetry ratio with 44.9% modeled upside against just 11.5% downside.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The asymmetry ratio should hold above 1.5 and the value score should remain elevated as the multiple stays statistically cheap over the next 12 months.
CounterA peer value rank of 9.12 paired with a peer quality rank of just 0.94 is a classic value-trap signature, suggesting the cheapness may already reflect deteriorating fundamentals rather than a mispricing.
Momentum has failed the engine's gate badly at just 1.6 versus a 4.5 threshold, and a death-cross hard block has also failed, with technical notes confirming a downtrend below the 200-day moving average.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- For the setup to become actionable, momentum needs to climb back above 4.5 and the death-cross block needs to clear over the next 12 months.
CounterThe technical score itself, driven by Bollinger and support/resistance components, reads a moderate 6.0, and the chart pattern is officially classified as unclear rather than a confirmed continued breakdown.
The put/call ratio is elevated at 1.67, flagged explicitly as a key risk, indicating options positioning skewed toward puts relative to calls.
→StableKey risks
- Expectation
- If this risk holds, expect the put/call ratio to remain elevated or options market sentiment to stay bearish over the next few months.
CounterOptions-market max pain sits at $50, nearly double the current $26.39 price, suggesting underlying options positioning may still reflect longer-term bullish expectations despite the elevated near-term put/call skew.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Cooper-Standard screens deeply cheap with a large modeled risk-reward asymmetry, but a badly failed momentum gate, a death-cross hard block, three of the last four quarters missing earnings, sub-floor quality, and an elevated put/call ratio keep conviction and position sizing at essentially zero.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 2.5 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 1.6 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.2 |
| Moat | 4.4 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
3.2/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.2 |
Momentum
2.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 2.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 2.5 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 67%
Insider
7.4/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 9.8 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.1 |
| quality rank | 0.9 |
| growth rank | 2.3 |
Technical
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.5 |
| support resistance | 7.8 |
| 52w position | 1.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.4 |
| days to cover | 6.9 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 4.4 |
| implied vol | 3.5 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 3.4 |
- ▸Above max pain $15
- ▸Concentration risks: 4 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:3.8>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:23d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.0<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
3.80
Upside
+41.6%
Downside
11.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFalling Knife — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 39, MACD bearish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.5B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -44% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 9.2 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:2.0<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.2, Insider at 7.4, and Sentiment at 6.6; the weakest are Momentum at 2.0, Catalyst at 2.5, and Quality at 2.9. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.80 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Value With Asymmetric Upside
Trip ifStock price falls more than 15% from the current $26.39 despite the value score staying above 8.0, confirming a value trap.
- P2Failed Momentum And Death Cross Block
Trip ifMomentum score rises above 4.5, clearing the engine's gate from the current 1.6 reading.
- P3Persistent Earnings Misses
Trip ifThe company beats or meets earnings estimates in the next 2 consecutive reported quarters, with average surprise rising above -10%.
- P4Quality Below Investability Floor
Trip ifQuality score rises above 4.0 from the current 2.9.
- P5Elevated Put Call Ratio Risk
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 1.0, down from the current 1.67.