Should you buy Cooper-Standard Holdings (CPS)?
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Engine methodology range
Range computation requires sufficient peer-comparable data; available for tickers with peer_count ≥3.
What the engine is tracking
- Persistent Earnings Misses→Stable
- Quality Below Investability Floor→Stable
- Deep Value With Asymmetric Upside→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
→ Full pillar scorecard with all 5 pillars + per-dimension breakdown
When this thesis breaks
Falsifiable conditions per pillar — any one trip warrants review independent of price action. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Value With Asymmetric Upside
Trip ifStock price falls more than 15% from the current $26.39 despite the value score staying above 8.0, confirming a value trap.
- P2Failed Momentum And Death Cross Block
Trip ifMomentum score rises above 4.5, clearing the engine's gate from the current 1.6 reading.
- P3Persistent Earnings Misses
Trip ifThe company beats or meets earnings estimates in the next 2 consecutive reported quarters, with average surprise rising above -10%.
- P4Quality Below Investability Floor
Trip ifQuality score rises above 4.0 from the current 2.9.
- P5Elevated Put Call Ratio Risk
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 1.0, down from the current 1.67.
How the engine reached this verdict
TrendMatrix's engine output for Cooper-Standard Holdings Inc. (CPS) is SELL_IF_HOLDING with medium conviction, score 4.9/10 at $27.01. An L1 hard-floor gate blocked the positive-verdict path — Quality below minimum threshold. Co-failing gates ( MOMENTUM:2.0<4.5, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read; dimensional pillars cannot lift the engine output above the verdict floor while the L1 gate is active.
The engine's exit framework anchors to a tactical sell band near $27.01, with structural invalidation at $25.12. The asymmetric R:R against a reversal hypothesis is 3.80 — the upside scenario exists, but it requires multiple structural gates to flip; the downside scenario requires only one more disappointment. The engine's sizing output: 0.5% of portfolio at this asymmetry level (none-conviction tier).
On the bear side: Concentration risk — Customer: top-three customers (Ford, GM, Stellantis) (56.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: OEM sales channel (86.0%); Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0). Active engine warnings: Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0), V9 Gate Failed: MOMENTUM:2.0<4.5, V9 Gate Failed: DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK.
The dominant failed gate is momentum at 2.0 vs threshold 4.5 (with co-failures: death cross). SELL flips back toward HOLD if momentum recovers above its threshold AND a co-failing gate also clears. The strongest-cleared gate today is ASYMMETRY:3.8>=1.5.
For the full 10-dimension breakdown + V9 gate detail: Why TrendMatrix rates CPS — 10-dimension breakdown →
Bear case
- ▸Concentration risk — Customer: top-three customers (Ford, GM, Stellantis) (56.0%)
- ▸Concentration risk — Customer: OEM sales channel (86.0%)
- ▸Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0)