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BROBrown & Brown, Inc.Hold6.5·$70.87-5.34%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Brown & Brown has delivered four consecutive earnings beats on the back of strong margins and exceptional free cash flow conversion, but the shares are trading in a confirmed downtrend below the 200-day moving average—making the quality story intact but the near-term entry timing challenged.

Thesis pillars

  • Consistent Earnings Beat StreakStable
  • Superior Free Cash Flow ConversionStable
  • Industry Leading Revenue GrowthDeteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Brown & Brown, Inc. (BRO) Stock Analysis

Momentum Cont setup

HoldGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance Brokers

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $70.87, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Brown & Brown markets and sells insurance products as an agent and broker, with two segments — Retail (58.7% of 2025 commissions/fees) and Specialty Distribution (41.3%) — operating 468 domestic locations in 47 states plus 246 international locations. Total commissions and fees... Read more

$70.87-5.8% A.UpsideScore 6.5/10#3 of 14 Insurance Brokers
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield6.56%
IncomeYield0.90%(5y avg 0.65%)Payout20.61%sustainable
Stop $65.91Target $74.12(resistance)A.R:R -0.7:1
Analyst target$74.19+4.7%16 analysts
$74.12our TP
$70.87price
$74.19mean
$55
$90

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $70.87, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 57, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news boost analyst 0.35, news boost analyst cluster(4), earnings proximity 88d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Brown & Brown, Inc.

About Brown & Brown, Inc.

Brown & Brown generated $5,763 million in total commissions and fees in 2025, split between the Retail segment at $3,386 million (58.7%) and the Specialty Distribution segment at $2,379 million (41.3%). International operations, primarily in the United Kingdom plus 14 other countries, generated $843 million in 2025. The company operates from 468 domestic locations across 47 states, with licensing required from regulatory authorities in each state and international jurisdiction where it conducts business.

Brown & Brown earns commissions and fees as an insurance agent and broker — not as an underwriter — primarily across property, casualty, and employee benefits lines. The Retail segment serves commercial, public, quasi-public, and individual customers; the Specialty Distribution segment operates through Arrowhead Programs (managing general underwriter programs across professional, personal, commercial, and public entity lines), Bridge Specialty Group (wholesale brokerage), and Arrowhead Specialty (affinity, captives, warranty, and life and health, including One80 Intermediaries businesses). In the third quarter of 2025, the company completed the acquisition of RSC, the holding company for Accession Risk Management Group, Inc., which also manages captive insurance companies that introduce underwriting risk. The largest Specialty Distribution segment customer represented approximately 7.2% of that segment's total commissions and fees, while no material part of Retail revenue is attributable to any single customer.

Show full overview

The Accession acquisition introduced captive insurance underwriting exposure and pending litigation against Accession's subsidiary Oxford Risk Management Group LLC over the 2024 restructuring of certain financial guarantee policies for segregated captive cells. Total debt rose to $7,613 million following the transaction. Separately, the 10-K identifies IRS scrutiny of 831(b) captive advisory services as a risk: if the IRS were to disallow such elections or investigate Brown & Brown's related advisory business, results of operations and financial condition could be materially affected.

See also: Financial Services · Insurance Brokers

From Brown & Brown, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-31
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Oct 26, 202688d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Positive momentum
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)23.5
P/E (Fwd)15.6
Mkt Cap$25.1B
EV/EBITDA11.1
Profit Mgn18.1%
ROE10.0%
Rev Growth32.4%
Beta0.60
Dividend0.90%
Rating analysts26

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C2.31bearish
IV46%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWCustomerlargest Specialty Distribution segment customer7.2%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our largest Specialty Distribution segment customer represented approximately 7.2% of the segment's total commissions and fees.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-07Item 5.02LOW
    Shareholders approved amendment to 2019 Stock Incentive Plan on May 6, 2026, increasing available shares by 6,900,000 and extending the plan term, following prior Compensation Committee approval. No officer departure or new appointment disclosed in this item.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -0.7=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 8.0>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.35NEWS BOOST ANALYST CLUSTER(4)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 88d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARMomentum ContSuitability: Moderate
RSI
57 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $64.82Resistance $75.63

Price Targets

$66
$74
A.Upside-5.8%
A.R:R-0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-5.8% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-26 (88d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BRO stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $70.87, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 57, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $74.12 (+4.6%), stop $65.91 (−7.5%), A.R:R -0.7:1. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BRO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $74.12 (-5.8% upside). Target $74.12 (+4.6%), stop $65.91 (−7.5%), A.R:R -0.7:1. Stop-loss: $65.91.

What are the risks of investing in BRO?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is BRO overvalued or undervalued?

Brown & Brown, Inc. trades at a P/E of 23.5 (forward 15.6). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about BRO?

26 analysts cover BRO with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $74.

What does Brown & Brown, Inc. do?Brown & Brown markets and sells insurance products as an agent and broker, with two segments — Retail (58.7% of 2025...

Brown & Brown markets and sells insurance products as an agent and broker, with two segments — Retail (58.7% of 2025 commissions/fees) and Specialty Distribution (41.3%) — operating 468 domestic locations in 47 states plus 246 international locations. Total commissions and fees were $5,763 million in 2025; the company does not retain underwriting risk in its primary agency and brokerage operations.

Related stocks: ARX (Accelerant Holdings) · WTW (Willis Towers Watson Public Lim) · GSHD (Goosehead Insurance, Inc.) · AON (Aon plc) · NP (Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc.)
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