Skip to main content
BABAAlibaba Group Holding LimitedSell5.3·$120.25-0.67%
Open full analysis

Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Internet Retail

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $120.25: Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10 and A.R:R 7.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend.

Alibaba Group Holding Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides technology infrastructure and marketing reach to help merchants, brands, retailers, and other businesses in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It operates through the Alibaba China E-Commerce... Read more

$120.25+46.8% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#10 of 18 Internet Retail
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield-15.18%
IncomeYield0.87%Payout17.12%sustainable
Stop $116.02Target $176.32(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 7.2:1
Analyst target$191.66+59.4%40 analysts
$176.32our TP
$120.25price
$191.66mean
$258

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $120.25: Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10 and A.R:R 7.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 29, MACD bearish. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 81d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and news legal. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-08
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Fri, Aug 28, 202681d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)18.6
P/E (Fwd)13.1
Mkt Cap$290.4B
EV/EBITDA20.8
Profit Mgn10.1%
ROE9.2%
Rev Growth2.9%
Beta0.46
Dividend0.87%
Rating analysts48

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.27bearish
IV55%elevated
Max Pain$85-29.3% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
1.5
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 29, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.3%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.1
Quality Rank
4.0
Value Rank
7.2

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Fcf Quality
0.0
Operating Margin
0.4
Roa
1.4
Roe
3.1
Gross Margin
4.0
Current Ratio
4.8
Net Margin
5.1
Moat
6.0
Piotroski F
7.8
Earnings quality RED FLAG: -43% FCF/NIStrong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
GatesMomentum 1.5<4.5NEWS LEGALA.R:R 7.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 81d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
29 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $119.61Resistance $146.87

Price Targets

$116
$176
A.Upside+46.6%
A.R:R7.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0)
! momentum at 1.5 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! NEWS:LEGAL

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-28 (81d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BABA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $120.25: Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10 and A.R:R 7.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 29, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $116.02. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BABA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $176.32 (+46.8% upside). Prior stop was $116.02. Stop-loss: $116.02.

What are the risks of investing in BABA?

Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0).

Is BABA overvalued or undervalued?

Alibaba Group Holding Limited trades at a P/E of 18.6 (forward 13.1). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about BABA?

48 analysts cover BABA with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $192.

What does Alibaba Group Holding Limited do?Alibaba Group Holding Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides technology infrastructure and marketing reach to help...

Alibaba Group Holding Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides technology infrastructure and marketing reach to help merchants, brands, retailers, and other businesses in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It operates through the Alibaba China E-Commerce Group, Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group, Cloud Intelligence Group, and All Others segments. The Alibaba China E-commerce Group segment operates Taobao and Tmall, which are digital retail platforms; Taobao Instant Commerce, a local services and on-demand delivery platform; 1688.com, a domestic wholesale marketplace; and Xianyu, a consumer-to-consumer community and marketplace for idle goods. Its Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group segment includes AliExpress, a global e-commerce platform; Trendyol, an e-commerce platform in Turkey; Lazada, an e-commerce platform in Southeast Asia; Daraz, an e-commerce platform in South Asia, primarily in Pakistan and Bangladesh; and Alibaba.com, an integrated international online wholesale marketplace. The Cloud Intelligence Group segment offers a suite of cloud services based on infrastructure-as-a-service, platform-as-a-service, and model-as-a-service. Its All Others segment comprises Amap, a provider of mobile digital maps, navigation, and real-time traffic information in China; Cainiao, which provides logistics solutions; Youku, an online long-form video platform in China; Freshippo, a retail platform for groceries and fresh goods; and Alibaba Health, a pharmaceutical and healthcare services platform. Alibaba Group Holding Limited was incorporated in 1999 and is based in Causeway Bay, Hong Kong.

Related stocks: AMZN (Amazon.com, Inc.) · PDD (PDD Holdings Inc.) · EBAY (eBay Inc.) · SE (Sea Limited) · MELI (MercadoLibre, Inc.)
Home Stocks BABA

Latest news

Latest News

Benzinga4h agoRISKLegal
Benzinga3h ago
Benzinga3d ago
Benzinga3d ago
Benzinga5d ago
Benzinga6d ago
Benzinga6d ago
Benzinga6d ago
Benzinga6d ago
Benzinga6d ago
Benzinga8d ago
Benzinga10d ago
Benzinga10d ago
Benzinga11d ago
Benzinga12d ago
Benzinga13d ago
Benzinga15d ago
Benzinga17d ago
Benzinga17d ago
Benzinga17d ago
Loading more...