An attractively valued regional bank with three beats in the last four quarters and strong margins of 36% trades at a forward multiple of roughly 9 times earnings, but an extreme put/call ratio of 8.48 and a most-recent earnings miss of 10.8% warrant caution despite the favorable valuation signal.
Thesis pillars
- Attractive Valuation Strong Margins↓Deteriorating
- Extreme Bearish Options Positioning→Stable
- Recent Earnings Miss Breaks Streak→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Axos Financial, Inc. (AX) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Financial Services · Banks - Regional
Wait for pullback to $88.77. BUY gates pass at $98.48, but concentration risk — Regulatory: OCC primary regulator and analyst target reached - limited upside remaining argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $88.77 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum.
Axos Financial runs a digital bank with $24.8 billion in assets and a securities custody business holding $39.4 billion at Axos Clearing. The Banking segment earns net interest income across mortgages, CRE, C&I and consumer loans; the Securities segment earns fees from clearing... Read more
Wait for pullback to $88.77. BUY gates pass at $98.48, but concentration risk — Regulatory: OCC primary regulator and analyst target reached - limited upside remaining argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $88.77 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-31Recent Developments — Axos Financial, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Axos Financial (NYSE:AX) Signals Stronger Momentum - Kalkine Media — Kalkine Media positive
- NEWS Axos Financial Earnings: What To Look For From AX - StockStory — StockStory neutral
- NEWS Axos Financial Earnings: What To Look For From AX - TradingView — TradingView neutral
- NEWS Axos Financial Earnings: What To Look For From AX - tradingview.com — tradingview.com neutral
- NEWS Empowered Funds LLC Grows Holdings in Axos Financial, Inc $AX - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
Generated 2026-07-31T02:33:32Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographicCalifornia and New York real estate loans10-K Item 1A: 'given our high concentration of loans secured by real estate in California and New York, the Company remains particularly susceptible to a downturn in those states' economies'
- HIGHregulatoryOCC primary regulator10-K Item 1: 'subject to regulation, examination, and supervision by the OCC as its primary regulator and the FDIC as its deposit insurer'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
10 dimensions · all in-band
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $88.77. BUY gates pass at $98.48, but concentration risk — Regulatory: OCC primary regulator and analyst target reached - limited upside remaining argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $88.77 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. Target $100.14 (+1.7%), stop $84.08 (−17.1%), A.R:R -0.4:1. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $100.14 (-2.1% upside). Target $100.14 (+1.7%), stop $84.08 (−17.1%), A.R:R -0.4:1. Stop-loss: $84.08.
Concentration risk — Regulatory: OCC primary regulator; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.6% away).
Axos Financial, Inc. trades at a P/E of 12.1 (forward 10.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
14 analysts cover AX with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $111.
What does Axos Financial, Inc. do?Axos Financial runs a digital bank with $24.8 billion in assets and a securities custody business holding $39.4 billion...
Axos Financial runs a digital bank with $24.8 billion in assets and a securities custody business holding $39.4 billion at Axos Clearing. The Banking segment earns net interest income across mortgages, CRE, C&I and consumer loans; the Securities segment earns fees from clearing and advisory services to 327 financial organizations. The deposit franchise spans commercial verticals, specialty deposits and brokerage sweeps.