Value
9.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Attractively valued
AVR · Why this verdict
Why Anteris Technologies Global Cor (AVR) is rated SELL
Updated
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Momentum cleared the engine's 5.5 threshold at 5.8 and the risk/reward setup shows a 2.01 asymmetry ratio, with 27.3% upside against 13.6% downside, while on-balance volume is accumulating and price holds above the 200-day moving average. Engine gate (passed) | Momentum stays above 5.5 and the asymmetry ratio holds above 2.0 or improves over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe setup type is listed as unknown with mixed technical signals, and small-cap status keeps the name below institutional reach, which could limit follow-through buying even if momentum holds. | ||
The stock is flagged as attractively valued, with 27.2% upside to the take-profit target against a smaller 7.0% downside to the stop-loss. Valuation breakdown | The stock closes some of the gap toward its take-profit target of $13.03 from the current $10.24 over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterQuality concerns and a weak Piotroski F-Score of 3 out of 9 suggest the low valuation could be a value trap rather than a genuine mispricing, consistent with the value-trap signals flagged in the bear case. | ||
The business is cash-burning, with free cash flow at roughly -2845% of revenue, a failing Rule of 40 score of -2856, and a weak Piotroski F-Score of 3 out of 9, with no competitive moat. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow burn narrows and the Piotroski F-Score climbs above the current 3 out of 9 level. | →Stable |
| CounterMomentum and the risk/reward setup are both currently favorable (asymmetry ratio of 2.01), which could keep the stock rising even while cash burn remains a concern. | ||
Revenue is declining 11% year over year and the company has missed earnings estimates in all of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of -26.14%. Earnings | The company returns to beating estimates, or at least narrows the average miss, over the next several quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterInsiders have still been net buyers over the past 90 days ($102,228, low materiality) even through the miss streak, suggesting some confidence in the business despite the weak growth. | ||
Insider activity is flagged as bullish, with $102,228 of net buying over the past 90 days, though the note characterizes this as low materiality. Insider | Insider buying increases in materiality (a larger share of market cap) over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe bear case separately flags material insider selling (6 sells, 0.21% of cap) in the value-trap signal list, which sits in tension with the bullish insider signal and suggests mixed insider sentiment overall. | ||
Momentum cleared the engine's 5.5 threshold at 5.8 and the risk/reward setup shows a 2.01 asymmetry ratio, with 27.3% upside against 13.6% downside, while on-balance volume is accumulating and price holds above the 200-day moving average.
→StableEngine gate (passed)
- Expectation
- Momentum stays above 5.5 and the asymmetry ratio holds above 2.0 or improves over the next 12 months.
CounterThe setup type is listed as unknown with mixed technical signals, and small-cap status keeps the name below institutional reach, which could limit follow-through buying even if momentum holds.
The stock is flagged as attractively valued, with 27.2% upside to the take-profit target against a smaller 7.0% downside to the stop-loss.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock closes some of the gap toward its take-profit target of $13.03 from the current $10.24 over the next 12 months.
CounterQuality concerns and a weak Piotroski F-Score of 3 out of 9 suggest the low valuation could be a value trap rather than a genuine mispricing, consistent with the value-trap signals flagged in the bear case.
The business is cash-burning, with free cash flow at roughly -2845% of revenue, a failing Rule of 40 score of -2856, and a weak Piotroski F-Score of 3 out of 9, with no competitive moat.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow burn narrows and the Piotroski F-Score climbs above the current 3 out of 9 level.
CounterMomentum and the risk/reward setup are both currently favorable (asymmetry ratio of 2.01), which could keep the stock rising even while cash burn remains a concern.
Revenue is declining 11% year over year and the company has missed earnings estimates in all of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of -26.14%.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company returns to beating estimates, or at least narrows the average miss, over the next several quarters.
CounterInsiders have still been net buyers over the past 90 days ($102,228, low materiality) even through the miss streak, suggesting some confidence in the business despite the weak growth.
Insider activity is flagged as bullish, with $102,228 of net buying over the past 90 days, though the note characterizes this as low materiality.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider buying increases in materiality (a larger share of market cap) over the next 12 months.
CounterThe bear case separately flags material insider selling (6 sells, 0.21% of cap) in the value-trap signal list, which sits in tension with the bullish insider signal and suggests mixed insider sentiment overall.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Anteris screens attractively valued with a favorable 2.01 risk/reward setup and improving momentum, but weak business quality - cash burn, a failing Rule of 40 score, a low Piotroski score, and a four-quarter earnings miss streak - argues the cheapness could be a value trap rather than a genuine opportunity.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 5.5 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -2845% of revenue
- ▸Rule of 40: -2856 (fail)
Growth
0.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -11%
Momentum
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 2.3 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 3.1 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.8 |
| Price target | 9.7 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (3.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 58%
Insider
7.8/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.5 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸Insider buying (low materiality) — $102,228 (0.010% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.0 |
| quality rank | 0.6 |
| growth rank | 0.3 |
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.3 |
| support resistance | 6.1 |
| 52w position | 7.6 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.8 |
| days to cover | 6.5 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 4.0 |
| implied vol | 0.2 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 8.6 |
| debt equity | 9.9 |
- ▸High IV: 79%
- ▸Above max pain $2
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/4M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.4>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:2.4>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:38d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:5.4<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
2.41
Upside
+34.2%
Downside
14.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.0B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.0B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 9.0 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.0, Insider at 7.8, and Sentiment at 7.3; the weakest are Growth at 0.0, Catalyst at 2.5, and Quality at 3.1. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.41 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Favorable Momentum Asymmetry
Trip ifThe asymmetry ratio falls below 1.5 from the current 2.01.
- P2Attractive Valuation
Trip ifDownside risk to the stop-loss exceeds 15%, more than double the current 7.0% figure.
- P3Cash Burning Weak Quality
Trip ifThe Piotroski F-Score rises above 5 out of 9 from the current 3.
- P4Declining Revenue Earnings Misses
Trip ifAverage earnings surprise rises above 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Mixed Insider Signals
Trip ifNet insider transactions swing to net selling exceeding $500,000 over the next 90 days.