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AUPHAurinia Pharmaceuticals IncBuy Wait7.5·$16.65-3.59%
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Aurinia Pharmaceuticals offers a rare combination of a four-quarter earnings beat streak, elite operating margins, and a below-market forward multiple, but the stock has nearly closed the gap to its near-term resistance target and free cash flow converts at less than half of reported net income — arguing for patience over immediate deployment.

Thesis pillars

  • Elite Profitability FranchiseStable
  • Consistent Earnings OutperformanceStable
  • Attractive Growth Adjusted ValuationDeteriorating
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc (AUPH) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

Buy WaitValueGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Wait for pullback to $13.29. BUY gates pass at $16.65, but cyclical risk: PE expanding 2.1x (earnings normalizing) and analyst target reached - limited upside remaining argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $13.29 (Ma200 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum.

Aurinia Pharmaceuticals markets LUPKYNIS (voclosporin), the first FDA-approved oral therapy for adult lupus nephritis, generating $271.3 million in 2025 net product sales. Revenue comes from direct U.S. commercialization through specialty pharmacies and a supply and royalty... Read more

$16.65-5.1% A.UpsideScore 7.5/10#1 of 254 Biotechnology
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield6.67%
Entry $13.29(Ma200 Sticky)Stop $11.98Target $17.44(resistance)A.R:R -0.4:1
Analyst target$18.17+9.1%6 analysts
$17.44our TP
$16.65price
$18.17mean
$16
$21

Wait for pullback to $13.29. BUY gates pass at $16.65, but cyclical risk: PE expanding 2.1x (earnings normalizing) and analyst target reached - limited upside remaining argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $13.29 (Ma200 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 68, MACD bullish. Fundamentals strong but target reached (-5.1% upside). Wait for pullback. Score 7.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: speculative.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc

About Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc

LUPKYNIS (voclosporin), the only FDA-approved oral therapy for adult lupus nephritis, generated $271.3 million in net product sales for Aurinia Pharmaceuticals in 2025 — a 25% increase from $216.2 million in 2024 — with operating cash flows of $135.7 million, up 206% year over year. Aurinia commercializes LUPKYNIS directly in the United States and supplies product to Otsuka Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. for Japan, the European Union, the United Kingdom, and Switzerland under a collaboration agreement signed in December 2020. The company held $398.0 million in cash, equivalents, and investments at December 31, 2025, and repurchased 12.2 million shares for $98.2 million during the year.

Aurinia sells LUPKYNIS in the U.S. through two specialty pharmacies and a specialty distributor, with payer coverage from commercial plans and government programs including Medicaid and Medicare. Outside the U.S., Otsuka has obtained regulatory approval in Japan, the EU, the UK, and Switzerland; Aurinia earns royalties of 10% to 20% on Otsuka Territory net sales. Manufacturing is entirely outsourced: Lonza is the sole supplier of voclosporin drug substance at a dedicated Monoplant facility, Catalent Pharma Solutions is the sole supplier of voclosporin capsules, and a sole supplier handles blistering and packaging of U.S. commercial cartons. In the U.S., LUPKYNIS competes against BENLYSTA (belimumab, marketed by GSK plc) and GAZYVA (obinutuzumab, marketed by Genentech, Inc.), both injectable therapies, as well as off-label use of mycophenolate mofetil and corticosteroids. In February and March 2025, eight generic companies including Hikma, Teva Pharmaceuticals, Dr. Reddy's Laboratories, and Sandoz filed ANDAs challenging the 2037 dosing patents; Aurinia filed patent infringement complaints against each, triggering a Hatch-Waxman 30-month regulatory stay.

Show full overview

Three sole-source supply relationships expose Aurinia to manufacturing disruption risk with no short-term mitigation path. Lonza serves as the sole drug substance manufacturer at a dedicated Monoplant contracted through March 31, 2030, at a fixed quarterly facility fee of 3.6 million Swiss Francs for exclusive use rights — a cost that continues regardless of production volume. Catalent Pharma Solutions is the sole encapsulator and an unnamed third supplier handles all blistering and packaging of U.S. commercial cartons. The 10-K notes that the long-term commercial success of LUPKYNIS depends in part on the ability of contract manufacturers to supply cGMP-compliant product without interruption, and that an interruption from any sole-source supplier could adversely affect LUPKYNIS commercial sales.

See also: Healthcare · Biotechnology

From Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-23
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Nov 9, 202678d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Strong overall score: 7.5/10
High-quality business
Risks
Cyclical risk: PE expanding 2.1x (earnings normalizing)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)7.6
P/E (Fwd)15.6
Mkt Cap$2.2B
EV/EBITDA10.2
Profit Mgn100.8%
ROE66.1%
Rev Growth18.9%
Beta1.40
DividendNone
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.34bullish
IV56%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.5
Support Resistance
3.3
52w Position
7.3
GatesA.R:R -0.4=NEGATIVEMomentum 7.4>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 78d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Speculative
RSI
68 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $14.36Resistance $17.80

Price Targets

$12
$13
$17
A.Upside-5.1%
A.R:R-0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.8%
Max %1.6%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-5.1% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-09 (78d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AUPH stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $13.29. BUY gates pass at $16.65, but cyclical risk: PE expanding 2.1x (earnings normalizing) and analyst target reached - limited upside remaining argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $13.29 (Ma200 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 68, MACD bullish. Fundamentals strong but target reached (-5.1% upside). Wait for pullback. Target $17.44 (+4.7%), stop $11.98 (−39.0%), A.R:R -0.4:1. Score 7.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AUPH stock price target?

Take-profit target: $17.44 (-5.1% upside). Target $17.44 (+4.7%), stop $11.98 (−39.0%), A.R:R -0.4:1. Stop-loss: $11.98.

What are the risks of investing in AUPH?

Cyclical risk: PE expanding 2.1x (earnings normalizing); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is AUPH overvalued or undervalued?

Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc trades at a P/E of 7.6 (forward 15.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about AUPH?

13 analysts cover AUPH with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $18.

What does Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc do?Aurinia Pharmaceuticals markets LUPKYNIS (voclosporin), the first FDA-approved oral therapy for adult lupus nephritis,...

Aurinia Pharmaceuticals markets LUPKYNIS (voclosporin), the first FDA-approved oral therapy for adult lupus nephritis, generating $271.3 million in 2025 net product sales. Revenue comes from direct U.S. commercialization through specialty pharmacies and a supply and royalty arrangement with Otsuka Pharmaceutical for Japan, EU, UK, and Switzerland markets. Manufacturing relies entirely on sole-source contractors: Lonza for drug substance and Catalent for encapsulation.

Related stocks: HRMY (Harmony Biosciences Holdings, I) · ZVRA (Zevra Therapeutics, Inc.) · ASND (Ascendis Pharma A/S) · CRMD (CorMedix Inc.) · MGTX (MeiraGTx Holdings plc)
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