Value
9.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.6 |
| P/S | 7.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.6 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.04
- ▸Attractively valued
AU · Why this verdict
Why AngloGold Ashanti (AU) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score7.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
AngloGold Ashanti presents a compelling combination of exceptional profitability, wide moat characteristics, and steep growth alongside an attractive forward multiple — but a recent gap-up has compressed near-term asymmetry to below the minimum entry threshold, and three prior quarterly misses create uncertainty about whether earnings delivery has durably improved.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue has grown roughly 65% year over year, and growth scores the maximum across both revenue and earnings dimensions — a pace of expansion that the current forward P/E of 8.8x and near-zero PEG ratio do not appear to price in. Growth | Revenue growth sustains above 20% year over year for at least 2 consecutive quarters. | →Stable |
| Counter65% revenue growth driven by commodity price expansion is inherently cycle-dependent; the three prior quarterly earnings misses suggest the company has struggled to translate revenue growth into predictable earnings delivery. | ||
At spot prices, the risk/reward of roughly 1-to-1 falls short of the minimum 1.5-to-1 threshold — with roughly 14% upside to the analyst target and comparable downside — making the current entry point unattractive despite the strong fundamental profile. Warnings | A pullback toward the entry target improves the risk/reward to at least 1.5-to-1, reopening the setup for a new position. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe underlying quality and growth profile scores among the highest in the coverage universe; a strict entry-price discipline may cause a patient investor to miss a sustained re-rating if the stock continues to drift higher on fundamental momentum. | ||
The business earns a return on equity of 43%, sustains net margins of 31%, and achieves a perfect financial health score — a combination consistent with strong competitive advantages and durable pricing power in its industry. Quality breakdown | ROE stays above 30% and net margin stays above 25% for at least 4 consecutive quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterGold mining ROE can be meaningfully distorted by commodity price cycles; returns earned in a high-price environment may compress rapidly if prices retreat, making the current profitability profile look more durable than it is. | ||
The three most recent prior quarters all missed consensus, while the latest quarter delivered a 12.5% positive surprise — actual earnings of $2.52 versus the $2.24 estimate — potentially marking the start of an improvement in earnings predictability. Earnings | Two more consecutive earnings beats over the next two quarters, confirming that execution has inflected. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA single beat following three misses is insufficient evidence of a durable inflection; the prior misses averaged roughly 3% below estimates, and any moderation in commodity prices could push the next print back to a miss. | ||
An 8.7% gap up in a single session creates a zone of technical resistance and raises the probability of a near-term pullback before the next leg higher can be established. Technical breakdown | Price consolidates within 5% of current levels for at least 4 weeks without filling the gap, confirming accumulation at the new higher base. | Tripped↓Deteriorating |
| CounterStocks that gap up on fundamental re-ratings often do not fill those gaps quickly; if the gap reflects a genuine change in the investment narrative, it may hold as a new floor rather than a ceiling. | ||
Revenue has grown roughly 65% year over year, and growth scores the maximum across both revenue and earnings dimensions — a pace of expansion that the current forward P/E of 8.8x and near-zero PEG ratio do not appear to price in.
→StableGrowth
- Expectation
- Revenue growth sustains above 20% year over year for at least 2 consecutive quarters.
Counter65% revenue growth driven by commodity price expansion is inherently cycle-dependent; the three prior quarterly earnings misses suggest the company has struggled to translate revenue growth into predictable earnings delivery.
At spot prices, the risk/reward of roughly 1-to-1 falls short of the minimum 1.5-to-1 threshold — with roughly 14% upside to the analyst target and comparable downside — making the current entry point unattractive despite the strong fundamental profile.
↓DeterioratingWarnings
- Expectation
- A pullback toward the entry target improves the risk/reward to at least 1.5-to-1, reopening the setup for a new position.
CounterThe underlying quality and growth profile scores among the highest in the coverage universe; a strict entry-price discipline may cause a patient investor to miss a sustained re-rating if the stock continues to drift higher on fundamental momentum.
The business earns a return on equity of 43%, sustains net margins of 31%, and achieves a perfect financial health score — a combination consistent with strong competitive advantages and durable pricing power in its industry.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- ROE stays above 30% and net margin stays above 25% for at least 4 consecutive quarters.
CounterGold mining ROE can be meaningfully distorted by commodity price cycles; returns earned in a high-price environment may compress rapidly if prices retreat, making the current profitability profile look more durable than it is.
The three most recent prior quarters all missed consensus, while the latest quarter delivered a 12.5% positive surprise — actual earnings of $2.52 versus the $2.24 estimate — potentially marking the start of an improvement in earnings predictability.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- Two more consecutive earnings beats over the next two quarters, confirming that execution has inflected.
CounterA single beat following three misses is insufficient evidence of a durable inflection; the prior misses averaged roughly 3% below estimates, and any moderation in commodity prices could push the next print back to a miss.
An 8.7% gap up in a single session creates a zone of technical resistance and raises the probability of a near-term pullback before the next leg higher can be established.
Tripped↓DeterioratingTechnical breakdown
- Expectation
- Price consolidates within 5% of current levels for at least 4 weeks without filling the gap, confirming accumulation at the new higher base.
CounterStocks that gap up on fundamental re-ratings often do not fill those gaps quickly; if the gap reflects a genuine change in the investment narrative, it may hold as a new floor rather than a ceiling.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
9.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 6.7 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.1 |
| FCF quality | 7.1 |
| Moat | 9.0 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 43%
- ▸Strong margins: 31%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 65% YoY
Momentum
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 4.8 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 1.5 |
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+3.5%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.8 |
| Price target | 9.4 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (8.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 45%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.9 |
| quality rank | 7.0 |
| growth rank | 2.5 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.1 |
| support resistance | 6.0 |
| 52w position | 2.8 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.3 |
| days to cover | 9.5 |
| volatility | 2.9 |
| put call | 1.9 |
| implied vol | 3.7 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 9.0 |
| debt equity | 9.1 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.72
- ▸Above max pain $50
Catalyst
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.0 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
- ▸Earnings in 3 days
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 5.8% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCK|ENTRY_STICKY:PRIOR_STILL_VIABLEPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.6>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:3.4>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:3d<=7d
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.6<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
3.36
Upside
+25.8%
Downside
7.7%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupRange Bound — RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Growth at 10.0 (strongest), but EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:3d<=7d also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Quality at 9.1, and Value at 9.0; the weakest are Catalyst at 4.0, Peer rank at 4.3, and Momentum at 4.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.36 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Wide Moat Elite Profitability
Trip ifROE falls below 20% or net margin compresses below 20% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Strong Revenue Earnings Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 15% year over year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Earnings Inflection After Misses
Trip ifEPS falls below consensus in 2 of the next 3 quarters.
- P4Gap Up Near Term ResistanceTripped
Trip ifPrice advances beyond $101 (more than 10% above current levels) without a prior 5% retracement within 90 days.
- P5Thin Asymmetry Blocks New Entry
Trip ifRisk/reward ratio improves above 1.5-to-1, with upside to the analyst target exceeding 20%.