Value
7.1/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.0 |
| P/S | 8.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.1x
- ▸Attractively valued
APAM · Why this verdict
Why Artisan Partners Asset Manageme (APAM) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Artisan Partners is a high-quality asset management franchise generating 23% operating margins, a Piotroski score of 8 out of 9, and three quarters of earnings beats — but the stock is currently trading roughly 10% above analyst consensus price targets in a confirmed falling-knife technical configuration, creating a challenging near-term setup despite the underlying business quality.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The business generates 23% operating margins and scores 8 out of 9 on the Piotroski financial health scale, reflecting consistent operational efficiency and balance-sheet integrity that rank among the strongest in asset management. Return on equity appears elevated at roughly 72%, though this figure is likely amplified by a buyback-reduced equity base rather than purely operational compounding. Quality breakdown | Operating margin remains above 20% and Piotroski score stays at 7 or above for each of the next 4 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterAsset management margins are highly sensitive to assets-under-management levels, which fluctuate with market performance and client flows; a sustained market drawdown could simultaneously compress revenue and the multiple the market is willing to pay for the franchise. | ||
The stock is currently trading roughly 10% above analyst consensus price targets, meaning the market has priced in expectations that the median sell-side analyst does not believe are supported by near-term fundamentals — a precarious position for a name already in a confirmed technical downtrend. Warnings | Analyst consensus price targets are revised upward above $40 within 12 months, validating the premium the market is currently paying. | Tripped↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe resistance-based take-profit level sits roughly 4% above current price with a risk/reward ratio of approximately 1.6-to-1 in favor of the bull case, suggesting some near-term technical room for appreciation even if the fundamental picture has temporarily run ahead of analyst models. | ||
With a death cross in place, the stock below all moving averages, RSI at 38, and MACD bearish, the technical configuration reflects a falling-knife pattern — a setup historically associated with continued downside before a durable reversal can be confirmed. Engine gate (failed) | Price crosses back above the 200-day moving average and holds for at least 4 consecutive weeks within 9 months, confirming the falling-knife phase has resolved. | →Stable |
| CounterVolume accumulation (rising OBV) is occurring even during the price decline, suggesting buyers are absorbing the selling at lower levels — a divergence between price and volume that can precede a reversal before price itself confirms the turn. | ||
After three consecutive quarterly beats reading from oldest to most recent — a modest 1% beat, then 5%, then 16% — the most recent quarter produced a 6% earnings miss, breaking the streak and raising questions about whether the guidance discipline that produced prior beats has slipped. Earnings | EPS beats resume for at least 3 consecutive quarters with surprise above 5% each, demonstrating the miss was a one-quarter anomaly rather than a trend inflection. | →Stable |
| CounterA 6% miss is modest in absolute terms, and a business with 23% margins and a Piotroski score of 8 out of 9 has demonstrated the financial resilience to absorb one-quarter disappointments without fundamental deterioration. | ||
The business generates 23% operating margins and scores 8 out of 9 on the Piotroski financial health scale, reflecting consistent operational efficiency and balance-sheet integrity that rank among the strongest in asset management. Return on equity appears elevated at roughly 72%, though this figure is likely amplified by a buyback-reduced equity base rather than purely operational compounding.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Operating margin remains above 20% and Piotroski score stays at 7 or above for each of the next 4 quarters.
CounterAsset management margins are highly sensitive to assets-under-management levels, which fluctuate with market performance and client flows; a sustained market drawdown could simultaneously compress revenue and the multiple the market is willing to pay for the franchise.
The stock is currently trading roughly 10% above analyst consensus price targets, meaning the market has priced in expectations that the median sell-side analyst does not believe are supported by near-term fundamentals — a precarious position for a name already in a confirmed technical downtrend.
Tripped↓DeterioratingWarnings
- Expectation
- Analyst consensus price targets are revised upward above $40 within 12 months, validating the premium the market is currently paying.
CounterThe resistance-based take-profit level sits roughly 4% above current price with a risk/reward ratio of approximately 1.6-to-1 in favor of the bull case, suggesting some near-term technical room for appreciation even if the fundamental picture has temporarily run ahead of analyst models.
With a death cross in place, the stock below all moving averages, RSI at 38, and MACD bearish, the technical configuration reflects a falling-knife pattern — a setup historically associated with continued downside before a durable reversal can be confirmed.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- Price crosses back above the 200-day moving average and holds for at least 4 consecutive weeks within 9 months, confirming the falling-knife phase has resolved.
CounterVolume accumulation (rising OBV) is occurring even during the price decline, suggesting buyers are absorbing the selling at lower levels — a divergence between price and volume that can precede a reversal before price itself confirms the turn.
After three consecutive quarterly beats reading from oldest to most recent — a modest 1% beat, then 5%, then 16% — the most recent quarter produced a 6% earnings miss, breaking the streak and raising questions about whether the guidance discipline that produced prior beats has slipped.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS beats resume for at least 3 consecutive quarters with surprise above 5% each, demonstrating the miss was a one-quarter anomaly rather than a trend inflection.
CounterA 6% miss is modest in absolute terms, and a business with 23% margins and a Piotroski score of 8 out of 9 has demonstrated the financial resilience to absorb one-quarter disappointments without fundamental deterioration.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 5.2 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.7 |
| FCF quality | 7.0 |
| Moat | 6.9 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 72%
- ▸Strong margins: 23%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
- ▸High-quality business
Growth
2.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.8 |
| EPS growth | 0.5 |
Momentum
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.3 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 7.1 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 73)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.3 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 3.8 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.45 (n=2)
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
6.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.3 |
| quality rank | 6.8 |
| growth rank | 7.1 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.8 |
| support resistance | 2.4 |
| 52w position | 8.3 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.1 |
| days to cover | 5.8 |
| volatility | 4.6 |
| put call | 6.3 |
| implied vol | 6.2 |
| beta | 4.4 |
| debt equity | 7.4 |
Catalyst
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| surprise avg | 4.7 |
| dividend safety | 4.2 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:7.9>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- DEATH_CROSS:QUALITY_MOMENTUM_EXEMPT
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.5=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:quality=8.5>=7.5+momentum=7.9>=5.0 exempted
Reward-to-Risk
-1.47
Upside
-22.0%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 73
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.67>1.3, MCap $2.9B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:7.9>=5.5. Top dim: Quality at 8.5; weakest: Growth at 2.6. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 8.5, Momentum at 7.9, and Insider at 7.3; the weakest are Growth at 2.6, Technical at 4.4, and Catalyst at 5.3. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.47 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Quality Margin Profile
Trip ifOperating margin compresses below 15% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Stock Above Analyst ConsensusTripped
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target rises above $40 within 12 months.
- P3Falling Knife Technical Configuration
Trip ifPrice crosses back above the 200-day moving average and holds for 4 consecutive weeks.
- P4Recent Earnings Miss Breaks Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise exceeds 5% for 3 consecutive quarters.