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ADMArcher-Daniels-Midland CompanySell4.5·$78.67-1.96%
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Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Farm Products

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $78.67: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

The Company is an essential global agricultural supply chain manager and processor, providing food security by connecting local needs with global capabilities. ADM is also a premier human and animal nutrition provider, as well as a leader in health and well-being products.

$78.67+6.4% A.UpsideScore 4.5/10#7 of 7 Farm Products
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield4.08%
IncomeYield2.59%(5y avg 2.73%)Payout91.52%at-risk
Stop $74.54Target $83.66(resistance)A.R:R -3.0:1
Analyst target$74.10-5.8%10 analysts
$83.66our TP
$78.67price
$74.10mean
$58
$90

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $78.67: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, news boost analyst 0.35, news boost analyst cluster(7), earnings proximity 50d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15

Recent Developments — Archer-Daniels-Midland Company

Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 4, 202650d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Recent Analyst detected in news
Recent Analyst Cluster(7) detected in news
Risks
Target reached (-18.0% upside)
Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)35.8
P/E (Fwd)15.5
Mkt Cap$38.7B
EV/EBITDA19.3
Profit Mgn1.3%
ROE4.8%
Rev Growth1.6%
Beta0.60
Dividend2.59%
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.28bullish
IV55%elevated
Max Pain$23-71.4% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
2.2
Revenue Growth
2.9

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.5
Net Margin
0.7
Roa
1.1
Roe
1.6
Moat
4.5
Current Ratio
4.9
Piotroski F
7.8
Fcf Quality
9.9
Excellent cash conversion: 146% FCF/NINo competitive moatStrong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
2.3
Growth Rank
2.9
Quality Rank
5.0
GatesMomentum 4.3<4.5A.R:R -3.0=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentInsider activity: OKNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.35NEWS BOOST ANALYST CLUSTER(7)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 50d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
52 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $76.85Resistance $85.37

Price Targets

$75
$84
A.Upside+6.3%
A.R:R-3.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-18.0% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0)
! momentum at 4.3 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (50d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ADM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $78.67: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $74.54. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ADM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $83.66 (+6.4% upside). Prior stop was $74.54. Stop-loss: $74.54.

What are the risks of investing in ADM?

Target reached (-18.0% upside); Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0).

Is ADM overvalued or undervalued?

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company trades at a P/E of 35.8 (forward 15.5). TrendMatrix value score: 4.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ADM?

19 analysts cover ADM with a consensus score of 2.7/5. Average price target: $74.

What does Archer-Daniels-Midland Company do?The Company is an essential global agricultural supply chain manager and processor, providing food security by...

The Company is an essential global agricultural supply chain manager and processor, providing food security by connecting local needs with global capabilities. ADM is also a premier human and animal nutrition provider, as well as a leader in health and well-being products.

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