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ADAMAdamas Trust, Inc.Hold6.1·$9.14+0.22%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Adamas Trust combines a breakout setup with a favorable reward-to-risk ratio and an earnings catalyst backed by a strong beat streak, but soft momentum, a flagged yield-trap distribution, and proximity to the 52-week high temper the case for adding more.

Thesis pillars

  • Favorable Asymmetry With Margin Of SafetyStable
  • Breakout Catalyst Earnings Beat StreakStable
  • Yield Trap Warning On DistributionStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Adamas Trust, Inc. (ADAM) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueGrowthModerate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $9.14, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Negative momentum.

Adamas Trust, Inc. (formerly New York Mortgage Trust) is an internally-managed mortgage REIT investing across an investment portfolio of Agency RMBS, non-Agency RMBS, single-family and business-purpose residential loans, and multi-family mezzanine investments, plus Constructive,... Read more

$9.14+15.0% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#9 of 24 REIT - Mortgage
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield10.46%(5y avg 13.08%)Payout76.07%
Stop $8.46Target $10.33(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.6:1
Analyst target$11.88+29.9%6 analysts
$10.33our TP
$9.14price
$11.88mean
$24

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $9.14, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Negative momentum. Chart setup: RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 21d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 202621d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 48%
Risks
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)7.8
P/E (Fwd)8.1
Mkt Cap$820M
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn48.1%
ROE13.0%
Rev Growth10.7%
Beta1.24
Dividend10.46%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C4.00bearish

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Obv
1.0
Volume
2.9
Macd
3.2
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.7<4.5A.R:R 2.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 21d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
48 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $8.60Resistance $9.59

Price Targets

$8
$10
A.Upside+13.0%
A.R:R2.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.7 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (21d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ADAM stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $9.14, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Negative momentum. Chart setup: RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $10.33 (+13.0%), stop $8.46 (−8.0%), A.R:R 2.6:1. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ADAM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $10.33 (+15.0% upside). Target $10.33 (+13.0%), stop $8.46 (−8.0%), A.R:R 2.6:1. Stop-loss: $8.46.

What are the risks of investing in ADAM?

Negative momentum.

Is ADAM overvalued or undervalued?

Adamas Trust, Inc. trades at a P/E of 7.8 (forward 8.1). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about ADAM?

11 analysts cover ADAM with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $12.

What does Adamas Trust, Inc. do?Adamas Trust, Inc. (formerly New York Mortgage Trust) is an internally-managed mortgage REIT investing across an...

Adamas Trust, Inc. (formerly New York Mortgage Trust) is an internally-managed mortgage REIT investing across an investment portfolio of Agency RMBS, non-Agency RMBS, single-family and business-purpose residential loans, and multi-family mezzanine investments, plus Constructive, a wholly-owned business-purpose loan originator operating in 48 states. The company funds its leveraged portfolio primarily through repurchase agreements, reporting a recourse leverage ratio of approximately 5.0-to-1 as of December 31, 2025.

Related stocks: RITM (Rithm Capital Corp.) · EFC (Ellington Financial Inc.) · STWD (STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST, INC. S) · BXMT (Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.) · FBRT (Franklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc.)
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