AAON is a strong-growth building-products business delivering 54% revenue growth with upward earnings estimate revisions, but the stock trades at a forward P/E of 39.9x — a demanding valuation premium — while free cash flow is deeply negative relative to net income, price momentum is weakening via volume distribution, and the options market is pricing elevated downside hedging activity.
Thesis pillars
- Expensive Valuation Premium→Stable
- Strong Growth Rising Estimates→Stable
- Deeply Negative Fcf Quality→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
AAON, Inc. (AAON) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Industrials · Building Products & Equipment
Sell if holding. Momentum 4.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $75.15 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.
AAON designs and manufactures HVAC and liquid cooling equipment through three segments — AAON Oklahoma (commercial rooftop units), AAON Coil Products (custom coils), and BASX (data center and cleanroom cooling). Domestic sales dominate at 97.4% of 2025 net sales; three customers... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 4.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $75.15 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 49. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 51d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.
About AAON, Inc.
About AAON, Inc.
AAON's order backlog grew to $1,828.5 million at December 31, 2025, more than double the $867.1 million booked a year prior, reflecting rapidly rising demand for BASX-brand data center cooling equipment. Foreign sales totaled approximately $38.1 million in 2025, or 2.6% of total net sales. The company operates through three segments: AAON Oklahoma (commercial and industrial rooftop HVAC), AAON Coil Products (custom coils and HVAC assemblies), and BASX (data center cooling, cleanroom solutions, and custom air handling).
Revenue is earned through build-to-order sales directed primarily through a network of independent sales representatives serving the domestic market. AAON's commercial HVAC products — rooftop units spanning 2 to 261 tons of cooling capacity — compete against Lennox, Trane, York (Bosch), Johnson Controls, Carrier, and Daikin. BASX thermal management products compete against Vertiv, STULZ, Munters, Silent Aire, Nortek, and Modine. Primary raw materials are steel, copper, and aluminum sourced under cancellable and non-cancellable contracts with 6-to-18-month terms; the company states it is not dependent on any single supplier. Key BASX data center customers include hyperscale operators — the 10-K names Microsoft, Amazon Web Services, Google Cloud, QTS, and Applied Digital as examples. A revolving credit facility permits borrowings up to $600.0 million, with $398.3 million outstanding at December 31, 2025.
Show full overview
Three customers each exceeded 10% of AAON's net sales in 2025, representing a meaningful but unquantified share of revenue. BASX-brand data center orders carry materially higher cancellation and rescheduling risk than commercial HVAC backlog: the 10-K notes that BASX orders are subject to 'shifts in timing, cancellations and re-issuances of orders, all subject to various cancellation terms and charges,' in contrast to commercial air conditioning orders, which are characterized as firm with minimal cancellation risk.
See also: Industrials · Building Products & Equipment
From AAON, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-14Recent Developments — AAON, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Aaon chief accounting officer Rebecca Thompson sells $228k in stock - Investing.com — Investing.com neutral
- NEWS Aaon chief accounting officer sells $729,929 in stock - Investing.com — Investing.com negative
- NEWS Aaon chief accounting officer Rebecca Thompson sells $2.2m in stock - Investing.com — Investing.com negative
- NEWS AAON (AAON) Chief Accounting Officer sells 2,287 shares, exercises options - Stock Titan — Stock Titan negative
- NEWS Rebecca Thompson Sells 400 Shares of AAON (NASDAQ:AAON) Stock - MarketBeat — MarketBeat negative
Generated 2026-09-14T22:12:01Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerthree customers ≥10% of revenue10-K Item 1: 'the Company had three, two and three customers, respectively, that were 10 percent or greater concentrations of revenue'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-02Item 5.02MEDIUMAAON announced CFO transition on April 2, 2026. Andy Cheung (age 51) joins as EVP and CFO effective April 20, 2026, with 25+ years in HVAC and automotive industries. Rebecca Thompson departing from CFO role; no reason cited. Successor named with full compensation terms disclosed.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
1 ceiling hit
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 4.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $75.15 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 49. Prior stop was $71.21. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $121.55 (+60.9% upside). Prior stop was $71.21. Stop-loss: $71.21.
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.4%/30d (confirmed downtrend).
AAON, Inc. trades at a P/E of 42.0 (forward 22.6). TrendMatrix value score: 5.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
14 analysts cover AAON with a consensus score of 4.4/5. Average price target: $143.
What does AAON, Inc. do?AAON designs and manufactures HVAC and liquid cooling equipment through three segments — AAON Oklahoma (commercial...
AAON designs and manufactures HVAC and liquid cooling equipment through three segments — AAON Oklahoma (commercial rooftop units), AAON Coil Products (custom coils), and BASX (data center and cleanroom cooling). Domestic sales dominate at 97.4% of 2025 net sales; three customers each exceeded 10% of revenue. Order backlog stood at $1,828.5M at December 31, 2025.