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XYLXylem Inc.Sell5.6·$90.76
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Xylem has delivered four consecutive earnings beats with a perfect beat record and carries a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, with analysts projecting 22% upside from current levels, though the stock is in a death-cross technical setup and faces an unusually high put-to-call ratio of 36 that signals elevated downside hedging.

Thesis pillars

  • Perfect Earnings Beat With 22pct Upside↓Deteriorating
  • Put Call Ratio Extreme Hedging↓Deteriorating
  • Death Cross Recovery Setup↓Deteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 25, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Xylem Inc. (XYL) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellValueGrowthModerate Confidence

Industrials · Specialty Industrial Machinery

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $90.76 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Negative news sentiment (-0.80).

Xylem Inc. designs, manufactures, and services water technology products across four segments — Water Infrastructure, Applied Water, Measurement and Control Solutions, and Water Solutions and Services — generating $9.0 billion in 2025 revenue with approximately 22,000 employees... Read more

$90.76+26.6% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#28 of 56 Specialty Industrial Machinery
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield6.56%
IncomeYield1.95%(5y avg 1.18%)Payout37.47%sustainable
Stop $84.78Analyst target $114.92(−10% haircut)A.R:R 3.5:1
Analyst consensus$127.69+40.7%16 analysts
$114.92Analyst target
$90.76price
$127.69mean
$180

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $90.76 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Negative news sentiment (-0.80). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 31, MACD bearish. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 101d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Xylem Inc.

About Xylem Inc.

Xylem Inc. posted $9.0 billion in 2025 revenues, with 58% from U.S. customers and 20% from Western Europe, serving utilities, industrial facilities, and municipalities in approximately 150 countries with approximately 22,000 employees. The company's four segments — Water Infrastructure ($2.636 billion), Applied Water ($1.849 billion), Measurement and Control Solutions ($2.086 billion), and Water Solutions and Services ($2.464 billion) — address water transport, treatment, metering, and outsourced services. Total backlog was $4,615 million at December 31, 2025, with approximately 60% expected to convert to revenue in 2026.

Xylem generates revenue through equipment sales, long-term service contracts, rental, and software subscriptions. Water Infrastructure sells water and wastewater pumps and filtration and disinfection equipment under the Flygt, Wallace & Tiernan, and Wedeco brands to utility and industrial customers through direct and indirect channels. Applied Water addresses building solutions and industrial water markets under the Bell & Gossett and Goulds Water Technology brands, primarily through independent distributors. Measurement and Control Solutions earns revenue from smart meters under the Sensus brand, analytical instruments under WTW and YSI, and cloud-based analytics through Xylem Vue; the North America smart metering sector is described in the 10-K as the fastest growing sector of the global meter industry. Water Solutions and Services provides outsourced water and wastewater treatment, mobile dewatering rental under the Godwin brand, and emergency response services across industrial and municipal customers.

Show full overview

Supply chain exposure is a named risk: the 10-K discloses that certain key components are available only from sole- or single-source suppliers or a limited group of suppliers, and identifies significant direct and indirect suppliers in China, Taiwan, Mexico, and Europe. The filing specifically states that geopolitical changes in China-Taiwan relations could disrupt supplies of semiconductors, lithium batteries, carbide seals, and rare earth elements, which could adversely affect manufacturing of digitally-enabled products including pumps, controllers, and smart meters. Parts, components, and raw materials in use include motors, castings, PCBs, electronic components, semiconductors, rare earth minerals, steel, copper, and aluminum — all subject to pricing volatility from tariffs and geopolitical events.

See also: Industrials · Specialty Industrial Machinery

From Xylem Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 16, 2026.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Feb 9, 2027101d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Analyst upside: 27%
Risks
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7
Negative news sentiment (-0.80)
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)20.1
P/E (Fwd)15.3
Mkt Cap$20.8B
EV/EBITDA11.6
Profit Mgn11.9%
ROE9.8%
Rev Growth-3.0%
Beta0.99
Dividend1.95%
Rating analysts26

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C7.75bearish
IV42%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.5
Volume
7.1
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 2.5<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 3.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 101d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Speculative
RSI
31 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $87.40Resistance $110.29

Price Targets

$85
$115
A.Upside+26.6%
A.R:R3.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 2.5 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2027-02-09 (101d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is XYL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $90.76 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Negative news sentiment (-0.80). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 31, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $84.78. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the XYL stock price target?

Analyst target: $114.92 (+26.6% upside). Prior stop was $84.78. Stop-loss: $84.78.

What are the risks of investing in XYL?

Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Negative news sentiment (-0.80); Negative momentum.

Is XYL overvalued or undervalued?

Xylem Inc. trades at a P/E of 20.1 (forward 15.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about XYL?

26 analysts cover XYL with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $128.

What does Xylem Inc. do?Xylem Inc. designs, manufactures, and services water technology products across four segments — Water Infrastructure,...

Xylem Inc. designs, manufactures, and services water technology products across four segments — Water Infrastructure, Applied Water, Measurement and Control Solutions, and Water Solutions and Services — generating $9.0 billion in 2025 revenue with approximately 22,000 employees serving customers in roughly 150 countries. Revenue is 58% U.S. and 20% Western Europe; no single customer accounted for more than 5% of revenues in 2025, 2024, or 2023.

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