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Weyerhaeuser Company (WY) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Specialty

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $24.79: Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10 and A.R:R 2.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

Weyerhaeuser Company, one of the world's largest private owners of timberlands, began operations in 1900. Today the firm owns or controls more than 10 million acres of timberlands in the U.S., as well as additional public timberlands managed under long-term licenses in Canada.... Read more

$24.79+10.7% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#6 of 14 REIT - Specialty
Stop $23.64Target $27.44(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.1:1
Analyst target$31.55+27.3%11 analysts
$27.44our TP
$24.79price
$31.55mean
$38

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $24.79: Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10 and A.R:R 2.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-8.8% YoY), Negative free cash flow

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)43.8
P/E (Fwd)36.1
Mkt Cap$17.7B
EV/EBITDA31.7
Profit Mgn5.8%
ROE4.2%
Rev Growth-2.0%
Beta
Dividend3.43%
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.35bullish
IV53%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographictimberland ownership
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our timberland ownership is concentrated in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Louisiana, Maine, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Oregon and Washington.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-19Item 5.02LOW
    Amendment (8-K/A) reporting that board member Rick Beckwitt, appointed Nov 14, 2025, was assigned to the compensation committee on Feb 13, 2026. Routine committee assignment; no other changes.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-01-27Item 5.02LOW
    Compensation Committee approved new forms of terms and conditions for future performance share unit and restricted stock unit awards for executive officers under the 2022 Long-Term Incentive Plan, effective Jan 21, 2026.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Roa
0.5
Roe
1.4
Net Margin
2.9
Operating Margin
4.1
Moat
5.0
Current Ratio
5.3
Piotroski F
6.7
Earnings quality RED FLAG: -2% FCF/NINo competitive moatQuality concerns

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.9
Growth Rank
1.5
Value Rank
5.8
GatesMomentum 5.4<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.4>=4.5A.R:R 2.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
50 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $23.82Resistance $25.80

Price Targets

$24
$27
A.Upside+10.7%
A.R:R2.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-8.8% YoY), Negative free cash flow

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-30 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WY stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $24.79: Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10 and A.R:R 2.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $23.64. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the WY stock price target?

Take-profit target: $27.44 (+10.7% upside). Prior stop was $23.64. Stop-loss: $23.64.

What are the risks of investing in WY?

Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-8.8% YoY), Negative free cash flow.

Is WY overvalued or undervalued?

Weyerhaeuser Company trades at a P/E of 43.8 (forward 36.1). TrendMatrix value score: 5.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about WY?

22 analysts cover WY with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $32.

What does Weyerhaeuser Company do?Weyerhaeuser Company, one of the world's largest private owners of timberlands, began operations in 1900. Today the...

Weyerhaeuser Company, one of the world's largest private owners of timberlands, began operations in 1900. Today the firm owns or controls more than 10 million acres of timberlands in the U.S., as well as additional public timberlands managed under long-term licenses in Canada. Weyerhaeuser has been a global leader in sustainability for more than a century and manages 100 percent of its timberlands on a fully sustainable basis in compliance with internationally recognized sustainable forestry standards. Weyerhaeuser is also one of the largest manufacturers of wood products in North America and operates additional business lines around product distribution, climate solutions, real estate, energy and natural resources, among others. In 2025, the company generated $6.9 billion in net sales and employed approximately 9,500 people who serve customers worldwide. Operated as a real estate investment trust, Weyerhaeuser's common stock trades on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol WY. Weyerhaeuser Company was incorporated in 1900 in Washington, USA.

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