Weyerhaeuser is a timber REIT with four consecutive earnings beats, strong momentum above its 200-day moving average, and 26% analyst upside — but a quality score of only 2.7 out of 10, negative free cash flow, and no competitive moat create a below-floor quality profile that limits conviction despite favorable near-term price action.
Thesis pillars
- Quality Below Minimum Floor→Stable
- Consistent Earnings Beat Streak→Stable
- Bullish Momentum With Volume Accumulation→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 13, 2026
Weyerhaeuser Company (WY) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Real Estate · REIT - Specialty
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $19.19: Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10 and A.R:R 3.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.
Weyerhaeuser Company, one of the world's largest private owners of timberlands, began operations in 1900 and today owns or controls more than 10 million acres of timberlands in the U.S., as well as additional public timberlands managed under long-term licenses in Canada.... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $19.19: Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10 and A.R:R 3.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 50. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Weyerhaeuser Company
Latest news
- NEWS CIBC Maintains Outperformer on Weyerhaeuser, Lowers Price Target to $25 — benzinga Oct 27, 2026 negative
- NEWS DA Davidson Maintains Buy on Weyerhaeuser, Lowers Price Target to $27 — benzinga Oct 27, 2026 neutral
- NEWS DA Davidson Adjusts Price Target on Weyerhaeuser to $27 From $31 — fiscal.ai Oct 27, 2026 negative
- NEWS Meta To Rally More Than 11%? Here Are 10 Top Analyst Forecasts For Wednesday — benzinga Oct 14, 2026 neutral
- NEWS This Albemarle Analyst Turns Bullish; Here Are Top 4 Upgrades For Wednesday — benzinga Oct 14, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-10-29T11:53:52Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-20Item 5.02LOWOn May 14, 2026, Weyerhaeuser amended and restated its 2023 Deferred Compensation Plan, permitting designated employee participants and executive officers to defer 10-50% of base salary and 10-100% of cash incentive awards. No departure or appointment cited.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $19.19: Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10 and A.R:R 3.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 50. Prior stop was $18.17. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $23.09 (+20.3% upside). Prior stop was $18.17. Stop-loss: $18.17.
Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (3/5): Revenue declining (-6.2% YoY), High leverage (D/E 1.6), Negative free cash flow.
Weyerhaeuser Company trades at a P/E of 29.5 (forward 32.5). TrendMatrix value score: 6.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
21 analysts cover WY with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $27.
What does Weyerhaeuser Company do?Weyerhaeuser Company, one of the world's largest private owners of timberlands, began operations in 1900 and today owns...
Weyerhaeuser Company, one of the world's largest private owners of timberlands, began operations in 1900 and today owns or controls more than 10 million acres of timberlands in the U.S., as well as additional public timberlands managed under long-term licenses in Canada. Weyerhaeuser has been a global leader in sustainability for more than a century and manages 100 percent of its timberlands on a fully sustainable basis in compliance with internationally recognized sustainable forestry standards. Weyerhaeuser is also one of the largest manufacturers of wood products in North America and operates additional business lines around product distribution, climate solutions, real estate, energy and natural resources, among others. In 2025, the company generated 6.9 billion dollar in net sales and employed approximately 9,500 people who serve customers worldwide. Weyerhaeuser Company was founded in 1900 and was incorporated in Washington.