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WSOWatsco, Inc.Sell4.2·$386.11+1.49%
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Watsco, Inc. (WSO) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Industrial Distribution

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $386.11 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Watsco, Inc. and its subsidiaries (collectively, "Watsco," the "Company", or "we," "us," or "our") was incorporated in Florida in 1956 and is the largest distributor of air conditioning, heating and refrigeration equipment and related parts and supplies ("HVAC/R") in the HVAC/R... Read more

$386.11+3.4% A.UpsideScore 4.2/10#17 of 17 Industrial Distribution
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield3.34%
IncomeYield3.47%(5y avg 2.69%)Payout98.44%at-risk
Stop $360.78Target $398.62(resistance)A.R:R -0.5:1
Analyst target$424.67+10.0%9 analysts
$398.62our TP
$386.11price
$424.67mean
$370
$485

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $386.11 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 43d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 202643d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Consecutive earnings misses (3)
Earnings estimates trending DOWN

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)31.3
P/E (Fwd)27.4
Mkt Cap$15.7B
EV/EBITDA21.5
Profit Mgn6.9%
ROE18.6%
Rev Growth0.1%
Beta1.03
Dividend3.47%
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.23bullish
IV61%elevated
Max Pain$530+37.3% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
1.4
Revenue Growth
2.5

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Erm
1.0
Surprise Avg
1.1
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.2
Estimates down -16.0% (30d)Earnings concerns: 1B/3MDividend: 347.0%

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.6
Value Rank
3.1
Quality Rank
5.7
GatesA.R:R -0.5=NEGATIVEMomentum 4.5<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.5>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 43d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
52 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $355.14Resistance $406.75

Price Targets

$361
$399
A.Upside+3.2%
A.R:R-0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-4.2% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (43d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WSO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $386.11 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $360.78. Score 4.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the WSO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $398.62 (+3.4% upside). Prior stop was $360.78. Stop-loss: $360.78.

What are the risks of investing in WSO?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Consecutive earnings misses (3); Earnings estimates trending DOWN.

Is WSO overvalued or undervalued?

Watsco, Inc. trades at a P/E of 31.3 (forward 27.4). TrendMatrix value score: 4.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about WSO?

22 analysts cover WSO with a consensus score of 2.8/5. Average price target: $425.

What does Watsco, Inc. do?Watsco, Inc. and its subsidiaries (collectively, "Watsco," the "Company", or "we," "us," or "our") was incorporated in...

Watsco, Inc. and its subsidiaries (collectively, "Watsco," the "Company", or "we," "us," or "our") was incorporated in Florida in 1956 and is the largest distributor of air conditioning, heating and refrigeration equipment and related parts and supplies ("HVAC/R") in the HVAC/R distribution industry in North America. At December 31, 2025, we operated from 695 locations in 43 U.S.

Related stocks: DNOW (DNOW Inc.) · REZI (Resideo Technologies, Inc.) · DXPE (DXP Enterprises, Inc.) · WCC (WESCO International, Inc.) · SITE (SiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc.)
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