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WSMWilliams-Sonoma, Inc.Sell5.2·$202.49-1.21%
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Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $202.49 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Williams-Sonoma is an omni-channel specialty home retailer operating brands including Williams Sonoma, Pottery Barn, West Elm, Pottery Barn Kids, and Rejuvenation across 506 stores in the U.S., Canada, Australia, and U.K. Approximately 65% of net revenues (~$16B annual) come... Read more

$202.49+1.9% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#14 of 18 Specialty Retail
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield3.67%
IncomeYield1.48%(5y avg 1.73%)Payout30.72%sustainable
Stop $188.45Target $206.28(resistance)A.R:R -0.5:1
Analyst target$207.00+2.2%19 analysts
$206.28our TP
$202.49price
$207.00mean
$138
$230

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $202.49 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 82. Score 5.2/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 79d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 26, 202679d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.2 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)23.0
P/E (Fwd)20.0
Mkt Cap$24.1B
EV/EBITDA15.1
Profit Mgn13.8%
ROE54.0%
Rev Growth4.4%
Beta1.51
Dividend1.48%
Rating analysts27

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.76neutral
IV57%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
2.9
Revenue Growth
3.6
GatesA.R:R -0.5=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.2>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 79d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
82 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $165.51Resistance $210.49

Price Targets

$188
$206
A.Upside+1.9%
A.R:R-0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-8.0% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-26 (79d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WSM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $202.49 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 82. Prior stop was $188.45. Score 5.2/10, high confidence.

What is the WSM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $206.28 (+1.9% upside). Prior stop was $188.45. Stop-loss: $188.45.

What are the risks of investing in WSM?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Weak growth.

Is WSM overvalued or undervalued?

Williams-Sonoma, Inc. trades at a P/E of 23.0 (forward 20.0). TrendMatrix value score: 5.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about WSM?

27 analysts cover WSM with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $207.

What does Williams-Sonoma, Inc. do?Williams-Sonoma is an omni-channel specialty home retailer operating brands including Williams Sonoma, Pottery Barn,...

Williams-Sonoma is an omni-channel specialty home retailer operating brands including Williams Sonoma, Pottery Barn, West Elm, Pottery Barn Kids, and Rejuvenation across 506 stores in the U.S., Canada, Australia, and U.K. Approximately 65% of net revenues (~$16B annual) come from e-commerce. Products are sourced 81% internationally, with China (19%), Vietnam (16%), and India (15%) as the largest sourcing countries.

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