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CMBTCMB.TECH NVSell6.6·$18.48
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

CMB.TECH presents a high-growth, attractively valued business with 121% year-over-year revenue expansion and a forward earnings multiple of 10.3x, but inconsistent earnings delivery — three misses before a most-recent beat — and a significantly negative free cash flow position introduce meaningful execution uncertainty that warrants a cautious hold rather than new exposure.

Thesis pillars

  • Hypergrowth At Discount Valuation→Stable
  • Free Cash Flow Deeply Negative→Stable
  • Earnings Delivery Improvement↓Deteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

CMB.TECH NV (CMBT) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5GrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Midstream

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $18.48 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Cyclical risk: PE expanding 1.9x (earnings normalizing).

Cmb.Tech NV engages in marine transportation business in Belgium. It operates through three divisions: Marine, H2 Infra, and H2 Industry. The Marine division designs, builds, owns, and operates various low and zero carbon ships and vessels, such as crew transfer vessels,... Read more

$18.48-5.9% A.UpsideScore 6.6/10#16 of 46 Oil & Gas Midstream
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield-15.08%
IncomeYield6.93%(5y avg 1.56%)Payout30.41%sustainable
Stop $17.19Analyst target $17.38(reached)A.R:R -0.8:1
Analyst consensus$20.45+10.7%4 analysts
$18.48price
$20.45mean
$16
$23

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $18.48 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Cyclical risk: PE expanding 1.9x (earnings normalizing). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 27d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-29
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 26, 202627d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Energy): +1.2
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Cyclical risk: PE expanding 1.9x (earnings normalizing)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)6.2
P/E (Fwd)12.0
Mkt Cap$5.4B
EV/EBITDA9.2
Profit Mgn37.2%
ROE29.6%
Rev Growth81.5%
Beta0.20
Dividend6.93%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatWideCompounder✓

Options Flow

P/C0.26bullish
IV47%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
1.5
Earnings History
3.3
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
6.7
Estimates down -5.5% (30d)Earnings concerns: 2B/2MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Obv
1.0
Volume
1.0
Macd
2.9
Ma Position
6.0
Rsi
7.9
Uptrend pullback (RSI 36) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.8<4.5A.R:R -0.8=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 27d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
36 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $17.08Resistance $20.51

Price Targets

A.Upside-5.9%
A.R:R-0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-5.9% upside)
! News modifier -2: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! momentum at 3.8 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-26 (27d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CMBT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $18.48 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Cyclical risk: PE expanding 1.9x (earnings normalizing). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $17.19. Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CMBT stock price target?

Analyst target $17.38 reached (−5.9% from $18.48); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $17.19. Stop-loss: $17.19.

What are the risks of investing in CMBT?

Cyclical risk: PE expanding 1.9x (earnings normalizing); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0.

Is CMBT overvalued or undervalued?

CMB.TECH NV trades at a P/E of 6.2 (forward 12.0). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CMBT?

13 analysts cover CMBT with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $20.

What does CMB.TECH NV do?Cmb.Tech NV engages in marine transportation business in Belgium. It operates through three divisions: Marine, H2...

Cmb.Tech NV engages in marine transportation business in Belgium. It operates through three divisions: Marine, H2 Infra, and H2 Industry. The Marine division designs, builds, owns, and operates various low and zero carbon ships and vessels, such as crew transfer vessels, ferries, commissioning service operations vessels, tugboats, ammonia-powered large bulk carriers, container ships, and chemical and crude oil tankers. The H2 Infra division develops and secures green molecule supplies; and produces and distributes green hydrogen and ammonia. The H2 Industry division provides scalable dual-fuel industrial applications. The company was formerly known as Euronav NV and changed its name to Cmb.Tech NV in October 2024. Cmb.Tech NV was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Antwerp, Belgium. Cmb.Tech NV is a subsidiary of CMB NV.

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