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Travere Therapeutics, Inc. (TVTX) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Earnings in 3 days (2026-05-04). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $44.32: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Elevated put/call ratio: 3.90; Below-average business quality.

Travere Therapeutics is a rare disease biopharmaceutical company focused on kidney disorders, with FILSPARI (sparsentan) FDA-approved in September 2024 for IgAN and Thiola for cystinuria. Revenue is earned from FILSPARI and Thiola product sales in the U.S.; the company relies on... Read more

$44.32-1.9% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#28 of 158 Biotechnology
Stop $41.13Target $43.37(resistance)A.R:R -0.2:1
Analyst target$49.57+11.8%14 analysts
$43.37our TP
$44.32price
$49.57mean
$40
$56

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $44.32: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Elevated put/call ratio: 3.90; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 3d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Val6.7Qual3.1Grw10.0Mom6.6Sent7.0Ins3.4Peer3.9Tech3.9Risk2.85.8OVERALL

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: FILSPARI
Concentration risk — Supplier: sole source suppliers for FILSPARI and Thiola
Target reached (-2.5% upside)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—
P/E (Fwd)8.6
Mkt Cap$3.9B
EV/EBITDA-1869.8
Profit Mgn-5.2%
ROE-57.8%
Rev Growth73.4%
Beta0.87
DividendNone
Rating analysts21

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C3.90bearish
IV65%elevated
Max Pain$15-66.2% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductFILSPARI
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our ability to generate significant product revenues...will depend almost entirely on our ability to successfully commercialize our products in the United States, including FILSPARI'
  • HIGHSuppliersole source suppliers for FILSPARI and Thiola
    10-K Item 1A: 'We have no manufacturing capabilities and rely on third-party manufacturers who are currently sole source suppliers for manufacturing of FILSPARI and Thiola'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Volatile — 6.0% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Volatility
0.0
Put Call
0.0
Short Interest
1.7
Debt Equity
2.1
Implied Vol
2.5
Max Pain Risk
3.0
Days To Cover
4.9
Beta
7.8
High short interest justified: 18%Elevated put/call: 3.90High IV: 65%Above max pain $15Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)

Clinical-stage biotech: losses expected pre-commercialisation. Quality floor doesn't distinguish R&D investment from operational decay — components above tell the real story.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Moat
5.0
Piotroski F
6.7
Gross Margin
7.2
Current Ratio
9.2
Cash-burning: FCF -8% of revenueNo competitive moat

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
2.8
Value Rank
5.7
Growth Rank
7.3

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.0
Bollinger
1.7
52w Position
10.0
GatesA.R:R -0.2=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 3d<=7dMomentum 6.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
77 · Overbought
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $28.29Resistance $44.26

Price Targets

$41
$43
A.Upside-2.1%
A.R:R-0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-2.5% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -9.4%), Material insider selling (9 sells, 0.05% of cap)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-04 (3d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TVTX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $44.32: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Elevated put/call ratio: 3.90; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $41.13. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TVTX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $43.37 (-1.9% upside). Prior stop was $41.13. Stop-loss: $41.13.

What are the risks of investing in TVTX?

Concentration risk — Product: FILSPARI; Concentration risk — Supplier: sole source suppliers for FILSPARI and Thiola; Target reached (-2.5% upside).

Is TVTX overvalued or undervalued?

Travere Therapeutics, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 8.6). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TVTX?

21 analysts cover TVTX with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $50.

What does Travere Therapeutics, Inc. do?Travere Therapeutics is a rare disease biopharmaceutical company focused on kidney disorders, with FILSPARI...

Travere Therapeutics is a rare disease biopharmaceutical company focused on kidney disorders, with FILSPARI (sparsentan) FDA-approved in September 2024 for IgAN and Thiola for cystinuria. Revenue is earned from FILSPARI and Thiola product sales in the U.S.; the company relies on sole-source third-party manufacturers with no in-house manufacturing.

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