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TSLXSixth Street Specialty Lending,Sell5.6·$16.90-0.24%
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Sixth Street Specialty Lending, (TSLX) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Asset Management

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $16.90 — A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5.

Sixth Street Specialty Lending is a BDC originating primarily senior secured loans to US middle-market companies with EBITDA of $10M–$250M. As of December 31, 2025, the portfolio had $3.35 billion fair value across 143 companies; first-lien debt represented 89% of investments... Read more

$16.90+1.9% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#44 of 109 Asset Management
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield8.14%
IncomeYield9.94%(5y avg 6.82%)Payout173.04%at-risk
Stop $16.23Target $17.22(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.4:1
Analyst target$19.80+17.1%11 analysts
$17.22our TP
$16.90price
$19.80mean
$24

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $16.90 — A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/9 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 45d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-14
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 202645d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)14.7
P/E (Fwd)9.3
Mkt Cap$1.6B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn25.2%
ROE6.8%
Rev Growth-19.7%
Beta0.64
Dividend9.94%
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.96neutral
IV81%elevated
Max Pain$25+47.9% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMloan_portfolioInternet Services18%
    10-K Item 1: 'The largest industry in our portfolio as of December 31, 2025 was Internet Services, which represented, as a percentage of our portfolio, 18.3% of the total portfolio based on fair value.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-23Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Joshua Easterly, Chairman of the Board and Co-CIO of Adviser, announced he will not seek re-election at 2026 Annual Meeting (May 21, 2026) and will retire from Sixth Street Partners June 30, 2026. Board intends to appoint a successor Chairman on or about the Annual Meeting. No disagreement cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.7
Quality Rank
4.5
Value Rank
5.7

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Macd
3.6
Rsi
4.5
Volume
7.1
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.4<4.5A.R:R 0.4 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentInsider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 45d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
46 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $16.73Resistance $18.12

Price Targets

$16
$17
A.Upside+1.9%
A.R:R0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (1.9% upside)
! momentum at 3.4 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 0.4 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (45d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TSLX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $16.90 — A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $16.23. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TSLX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $17.22 (+1.9% upside). Prior stop was $16.23. Stop-loss: $16.23.

What are the risks of investing in TSLX?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5; Negative momentum.

Is TSLX overvalued or undervalued?

Sixth Street Specialty Lending, trades at a P/E of 14.7 (forward 9.3). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TSLX?

18 analysts cover TSLX with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $20.

What does Sixth Street Specialty Lending, do?Sixth Street Specialty Lending is a BDC originating primarily senior secured loans to US middle-market companies with...

Sixth Street Specialty Lending is a BDC originating primarily senior secured loans to US middle-market companies with EBITDA of $10M–$250M. As of December 31, 2025, the portfolio had $3.35 billion fair value across 143 companies; first-lien debt represented 89% of investments and the largest single investment was 2.4% of the portfolio. Revenue is primarily interest income; Internet Services was the largest sector at 18.3% of fair value.

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