Tractor Supply Company trades at a significant discount to analyst targets with 34% upside and a 4.89x risk/reward ratio, supported by a 46% ROE, but consecutive earnings misses in the last two quarters and a confirmed death cross technical pattern create near-term execution and sentiment risk.
Thesis pillars
- Consecutive Earnings Miss Concern↑Improving
- High Roe Business Quality↓Deteriorating
- Large Analyst Upside Attractive Rr↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 19, 2026
Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup
Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail
Sell if holding. At $31.61, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.5%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8).
The Company is focused on supplying the needs of recreational farmers, ranchers, and all those who enjoy living the rural lifestyle (which we refer to as the "Out Here" lifestyle). We operate retail stores under the names Tractor Supply Company and Petsense by Tractor Supply.... Read more
Sell if holding. At $31.61, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.5%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 39, MACD bearish. Score 4.7/10, high confidence.
Passes 5/9 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 91d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Tractor Supply Company
Latest news
- NEWS Tractor Supply (TSCO) Launches Instacart Same Day Delivery From 2,400 Stores - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Tractor Supply (TSCO) Q3 Earnings: What To Expect - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS Should Tractor Supply’s Instacart Same-Day Delivery Push Require Action From TSCO Investors? - Sahm — Sahm positive
- NEWS TSCO Maintains Overweight Rating -- Price Target Lowered by Wells Fargo - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
- NEWS Tractor Supply Company Stock Continues Uptrend After Delivering 40%-Plus One-Year Asset Appreciation (TSCO) - stockinves — stockinvestor.com positive
Generated 2026-10-29T11:14:36Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-08-07Item 5.02MEDIUMDeparture of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On August 6, 2026, the Board of Directors of Tractor Supply Company (the "Company") approved the following equity grants to J.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $31.61, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.5%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 39, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $29.40. Score 4.7/10, high confidence.
Analyst target: $33.67 (+6.5% upside). Prior stop was $29.40. Stop-loss: $29.40.
Thin upside margin: 6.5%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.
Tractor Supply Company trades at a P/E of 17.0 (forward 15.3). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
37 analysts cover TSCO with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $37.
What does Tractor Supply Company do?The Company is focused on supplying the needs of recreational farmers, ranchers, and all those who enjoy living the...
The Company is focused on supplying the needs of recreational farmers, ranchers, and all those who enjoy living the rural lifestyle (which we refer to as the "Out Here" lifestyle). We operate retail stores under the names Tractor Supply Company and Petsense by Tractor Supply. Our stores are located primarily in towns outlying major metropolitan markets and in rural communities. We also offer an expanded assortment of products through the Tractor Supply mobile application and online at Tract