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TSCOTractor Supply CompanySell5.2·$31.29+0.10%
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Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $31.29: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.5): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

The Company is focused on supplying the needs of recreational farmers, ranchers, and all those who enjoy living the rural lifestyle (which we refer to as the "Out Here" lifestyle). We operate retail stores under the names Tractor Supply Company and Petsense by Tractor Supply.... Read more

$31.29+32.6% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#15 of 18 Specialty Retail
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield2.14%
IncomeYield3.07%(5y avg 1.60%)Payout45.81%sustainable
Stop $29.06Target $41.43(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 3.5:1
Analyst target$46.04+47.1%27 analysts
$41.43our TP
$31.29price
$46.04mean
$60

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $31.29: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.5): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 49. Score 5.2/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 39d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 23, 202639d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Analyst upside: 33%
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.5): -1.5
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.4
P/E (Fwd)13.5
Mkt Cap$16.4B
EV/EBITDA11.6
Profit Mgn6.9%
ROE45.5%
Rev Growth3.6%
Beta0.46
Dividend3.07%
Rating analysts37

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.93neutral
IV56%elevated
Max Pain$90+187.6% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-15Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Tractor Supply Company | | | May 15, 2026 | | By: | /s/ Kurt D. Barton | | | Name: Kurt D. Barton | | | Title: Executive Vice President - Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.0
Support Resistance
1.6
Bollinger
3.2

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.4
Revenue Growth
3.4
GatesDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 6.3>=5.5A.R:R 3.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 39d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
49 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $28.36Resistance $31.79

Price Targets

$29
$41
A.Upside+32.4%
A.R:R3.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Analyst Consensus

Analysts37
Consensus3.8/5
Avg Target$46

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-23 (39d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TSCO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $31.29: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.5): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 49. Prior stop was $29.06. Score 5.2/10, high confidence.

What is the TSCO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $41.43 (+32.6% upside). Prior stop was $29.06. Stop-loss: $29.06.

What are the risks of investing in TSCO?

Leverage penalty (D/E 2.5): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2); Weak growth.

Is TSCO overvalued or undervalued?

Tractor Supply Company trades at a P/E of 15.4 (forward 13.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TSCO?

37 analysts cover TSCO with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $46.

What does Tractor Supply Company do?The Company is focused on supplying the needs of recreational farmers, ranchers, and all those who enjoy living the...

The Company is focused on supplying the needs of recreational farmers, ranchers, and all those who enjoy living the rural lifestyle (which we refer to as the "Out Here" lifestyle). We operate retail stores under the names Tractor Supply Company and Petsense by Tractor Supply. Our stores are located primarily in towns outlying major metropolitan markets and in rural communities. We also offer an expanded assortment of products through the Tractor Supply mobile application and online at Tract

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Latest news

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