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TREXTrex Company, Inc.Sell4.9·$42.05+6.05%
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Trex Company, Inc. (TREX) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Building Products & Equipment

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $42.05 — A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: three customers (73.0%).

Trex Company is the largest manufacturer of composite decking and railing products, sold under the Trex brand and made entirely in the US (Virginia, Nevada, Arkansas) from recycled polyethylene film and reclaimed wood fiber. Products are stocked in 6,700+ retail locations and... Read more

$42.05+2.6% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#14 of 19 Building Products & Equipment
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield2.22%
Stop $39.11Target $43.15(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.2:1
Analyst target$47.95+14.0%19 analysts
$43.15our TP
$42.05price
$47.95mean
$36
$59

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $42.05 — A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: three customers (73.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 64. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 55d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 4, 202655d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: three customers (73.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)23.4
P/E (Fwd)22.7
Mkt Cap$4.4B
EV/EBITDA14.7
Profit Mgn16.3%
ROE20.1%
Rev Growth1.0%
Beta1.51
DividendNone
Rating analysts28

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.86neutral
IV70%elevated
Max Pain$60+42.7% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerthree customers73%
    10-K Item 1: 'For the years ended December 31, 2025, 2024, and 2023, three customers represented approximately 73%, 81%, and 72%, respectively, of the Company's total net sales.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-24Item 5.02MEDIUM
    CEO Bryan H. Fairbanks to resign effective April 28, 2026; COO Adam D. Zambanini named successor President and CEO and added to Board same date. Fairbanks' departure not due to any disagreement with the Company.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-05-04Item 5.02LOW
    Zachary C. Lauer appointed SVP, Chief Operations Officer effective April 28, 2026, overseeing manufacturing, supply chain, engineering, and R&D. Has served at Trex since 2016 in supply chain/manufacturing roles.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
1.5
Bollinger
1.6
52w Position
2.2
Gap
5.0

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
2.7
Earnings Growth
2.7

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
3.2
Value Rank
4.4
Quality Rank
7.3
Best-in-class margins
GatesA.R:R 0.2 < 1.5@spotMomentum 5.4<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 5.4>=4.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 55d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
64 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $35.69Resistance $43.16

Price Targets

$39
$43
A.Upside+2.6%
A.R:R0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (2.6% upside)
! asymmetry at 0.2 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (55d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TREX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $42.05 — A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: three customers (73.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 64. Prior stop was $39.11. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TREX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $43.15 (+2.6% upside). Prior stop was $39.11. Stop-loss: $39.11.

What are the risks of investing in TREX?

Concentration risk — Customer: three customers (73.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Is TREX overvalued or undervalued?

Trex Company, Inc. trades at a P/E of 23.4 (forward 22.7). TrendMatrix value score: 4.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TREX?

28 analysts cover TREX with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $48.

What does Trex Company, Inc. do?Trex Company is the largest manufacturer of composite decking and railing products, sold under the Trex brand and made...

Trex Company is the largest manufacturer of composite decking and railing products, sold under the Trex brand and made entirely in the US (Virginia, Nevada, Arkansas) from recycled polyethylene film and reclaimed wood fiber. Products are stocked in 6,700+ retail locations and sold primarily through wholesale distributors and home centers. Three customers (Home Depot, Lowe's, and a distributor) represented approximately 73% of 2025 net sales.

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