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SGHCSuper Group (SGHC) LimitedSell6.7·$13.89+0.36%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Super Group is a high-quality online gaming company with a 36% return on equity, a perfect Piotroski score of 9/9, and 33% analyst upside, but consecutive earnings misses and 12% short interest reflect real execution concerns that must be resolved before the investment case is fully validated.

Thesis pillars

  • Consecutive Earnings Misses Execution RiskDeteriorating
  • Attractive Valuation High Analyst UpsideStable
  • Elite Returns And Piotroski PerfectionStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Super Group (SGHC) Limited (SGHC) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Gambling

Sell if holding. Engine flags exit at $13.89. Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Super Group (SGHC) Limited operates as an online sports betting and gaming operator. The company provides Betway, an online sports betting and casino offering; and Spin, a multi-brand online casino. It operates in Africa, the Middle East, the Asia-Pacific, Europe, North America,... Read more

$13.89+22.1% A.UpsideScore 6.7/10#1 of 8 Gambling
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield4.17%
IncomeYield1.45%Payout18.07%sustainable
Stop $13.09Target $16.96(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.8:1
Analyst target$19.50+40.4%8 analysts
$16.96our TP
$13.89price
$19.50mean
$22

Sell if holding. Engine flags exit at $13.89. Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 50d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Nov 3, 202650d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.8 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)19.2
P/E (Fwd)15.6
Mkt Cap$7.0B
EV/EBITDA11.4
Profit Mgn15.1%
ROE49.5%
Rev Growth18.1%
Beta1.08
Dividend1.45%
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C1.50bearish
IV62%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesMomentum 6.3>=5.5A.R:R 2.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 50d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
48 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $12.78Resistance $14.32

Price Targets

$13
$17
A.Upside+22.1%
A.R:R2.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Analyst Consensus

Analysts14
Consensus4.2/5
Avg Target$20

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-03 (50d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SGHC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine flags exit at $13.89. Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $13.09. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SGHC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $16.96 (+22.1% upside). Prior stop was $13.09. Stop-loss: $13.09.

What are the risks of investing in SGHC?

Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Is SGHC overvalued or undervalued?

Super Group (SGHC) Limited trades at a P/E of 19.2 (forward 15.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SGHC?

14 analysts cover SGHC with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $20.

What does Super Group (SGHC) Limited do?Super Group (SGHC) Limited operates as an online sports betting and gaming operator. The company provides Betway, an...

Super Group (SGHC) Limited operates as an online sports betting and gaming operator. The company provides Betway, an online sports betting and casino offering; and Spin, a multi-brand online casino. It operates in Africa, the Middle East, the Asia-Pacific, Europe, North America, and South/Latin America. Super Group (SGHC) Limited is based in Saint Peter Port, Guernsey.

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