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SGHCSuper Group (SGHC) LimitedSell6.7·$14.08-5.44%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Super Group is a high-quality online gaming company with a 36% return on equity, a perfect Piotroski score of 9/9, and 33% analyst upside, but consecutive earnings misses and 12% short interest reflect real execution concerns that must be resolved before the investment case is fully validated.

Thesis pillars

  • Consecutive Earnings Misses Execution RiskDeteriorating
  • Attractive Valuation High Analyst UpsideStable
  • Elite Returns And Piotroski PerfectionStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Super Group (SGHC) Limited (SGHC) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Gambling

Earnings in 5 days (2026-08-04). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $14.08 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Earnings in 5 days (event risk).

Super Group (SGHC) Limited operates as an online sports betting and gaming operator. The company provides Betway, an online sports betting and casino offering; and Spin, a multi-brand online casino. It operates in Africa, the Middle East, the Asia-Pacific, Europe, North America,... Read more

$14.08+16.6% A.UpsideScore 6.7/10#1 of 8 Gambling
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield1.13%Payout35.23%sustainable
Stop $13.42Target $16.42(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.0:1
Analyst target$18.88+34.1%8 analysts
$16.42our TP
$14.08price
$18.88mean
$22

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $14.08 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Earnings in 5 days (event risk). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-31
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 4, 20265d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Earnings in 5 days (event risk)
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)31.0
P/E (Fwd)16.7
Mkt Cap$7.6B
EV/EBITDA14.7
Profit Mgn10.5%
ROE35.9%
Rev Growth18.4%
Beta1.08
Dividend1.13%
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.91neutral
IV71%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 ceiling hits

GatesMomentum 4.2<4.5EARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dA.R:R 2.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
41 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $13.83Resistance $15.86

Price Targets

$13
$16
A.Upside+16.6%
A.R:R2.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-2: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! momentum at 4.2 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SGHC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $14.08 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Earnings in 5 days (event risk). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $13.42. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SGHC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $16.42 (+16.6% upside). Prior stop was $13.42. Stop-loss: $13.42.

What are the risks of investing in SGHC?

Earnings in 5 days (event risk); Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is SGHC overvalued or undervalued?

Super Group (SGHC) Limited trades at a P/E of 31.0 (forward 16.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SGHC?

14 analysts cover SGHC with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $19.

What does Super Group (SGHC) Limited do?Super Group (SGHC) Limited operates as an online sports betting and gaming operator. The company provides Betway, an...

Super Group (SGHC) Limited operates as an online sports betting and gaming operator. The company provides Betway, an online sports betting and casino offering; and Spin, a multi-brand online casino. It operates in Africa, the Middle East, the Asia-Pacific, Europe, North America, and South/Latin America. Super Group (SGHC) Limited is based in Saint Peter Port, Guernsey.

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