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SGHCSuper Group (SGHC) LimitedSell6.8·$10.69
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Super Group is a high-quality online gaming company with a 36% return on equity, a perfect Piotroski score of 9/9, and 33% analyst upside, but consecutive earnings misses and 12% short interest reflect real execution concerns that must be resolved before the investment case is fully validated.

Thesis pillars

  • Consecutive Earnings Misses Execution Risk↓Deteriorating
  • Attractive Valuation High Analyst Upside↑Improving
  • Elite Returns And Piotroski Perfection→Stable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Super Group (SGHC) Limited (SGHC) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Gambling

Earnings in 3 days (2026-11-03). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $10.69: Risk below floor (3.0 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.8/10 and A.R:R 7.7:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 19%; Elevated put/call ratio: 12.75; Below long-term trend.

Super Group (SGHC) Limited operates as an online sports betting and gaming operator. The company provides Betway, an online sports betting and casino offering; and Spin, a multi-brand online casino. It operates in Africa, the Middle East, the Asia-Pacific, Europe, North America,... Read more

$10.69+51.9% A.UpsideScore 6.8/10#1 of 8 Gambling
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield5.39%
IncomeYield1.87%Payout18.01%sustainable
Stop $10.07Analyst target $16.24(−13% haircut)A.R:R 7.7:1
Analyst consensus$18.67+74.6%9 analysts
$16.24Analyst target
$10.69price
$18.67mean
$22

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $10.69: Risk below floor (3.0 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.8/10 and A.R:R 7.7:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 19%; Elevated put/call ratio: 12.75; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on earnings proximity 3d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Nov 3, 20263d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Risk below floor (3.0 < 3.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)14.8
P/E (Fwd)12.4
Mkt Cap$5.4B
EV/EBITDA8.6
Profit Mgn15.1%
ROE49.5%
Rev Growth18.1%
Beta1.12
Dividend1.87%
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder✓

Options Flow

P/C12.75bearish
IV84%elevated
Max Pain$8-25.2% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesEARNINGS PROXIMITY 3d<=7dMomentum 4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.8>=4.5A.R:R 7.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
38 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $10.38Resistance $11.78

Price Targets

$10
$16
A.Upside+51.9%
A.R:R7.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Risk below floor (3.0 < 3.0)
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:3d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-03 (3d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SGHC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $10.69: Risk below floor (3.0 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.8/10 and A.R:R 7.7:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 19%; Elevated put/call ratio: 12.75; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $10.07. Score 6.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SGHC stock price target?

Analyst target: $16.24 (+51.9% upside). Prior stop was $10.07. Stop-loss: $10.07.

What are the risks of investing in SGHC?

Risk below floor (3.0 < 3.0).

Is SGHC overvalued or undervalued?

Super Group (SGHC) Limited trades at a P/E of 14.8 (forward 12.4). TrendMatrix value score: 8.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SGHC?

14 analysts cover SGHC with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $19.

What does Super Group (SGHC) Limited do?Super Group (SGHC) Limited operates as an online sports betting and gaming operator. The company provides Betway, an...

Super Group (SGHC) Limited operates as an online sports betting and gaming operator. The company provides Betway, an online sports betting and casino offering; and Spin, a multi-brand online casino. It operates in Africa, the Middle East, the Asia-Pacific, Europe, North America, and South/Latin America. Super Group (SGHC) Limited is based in Saint Peter Port, Guernsey.

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