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Tempus AI, Inc. (TEM) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Health Information Services

Earnings in 4 days (2026-05-05). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $55.60: Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 28%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.

Tempus AI is an AI-enabled healthcare company providing genomic diagnostic testing (oncology, hereditary) and data licensing to pharmaceutical/biotech companies, with five U.S. diagnostic labs and 700+ data connections to healthcare institutions. Revenue derives from Diagnostics... Read more

$55.60+17.2% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#9 of 13 Health Information Services
Stop $51.73Target $65.16(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.1:1
Analyst target$72.40+30.2%15 analysts
$65.16our TP
$55.60price
$72.40mean
$35
$100

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $55.60: Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 28%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 66. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 4d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Val6.5Qual3.1Grw10.0Mom5.9Sent7.1Ins3.4Peer2.9Tech1.6Risk2.85.4OVERALL

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: oncology and hereditary tests (74.0%)
Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 2.1), Material insider selling (26 sells, 0.14% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—
P/E (Fwd)-613.6
Mkt Cap$10.0B
EV/EBITDA-61.2
Profit Mgn-19.3%
ROE-89.5%
Rev Growth83.0%
Beta—
DividendNone
Rating analysts23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C1.16bearish
IV91%elevated
Max Pain$30-46.0% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductoncology and hereditary tests74%
    10-K Item 1A: 'our clinical oncology and hereditary tests, which collectively accounted for 74%, 63% and 63% of our revenue in the years ended December 31, 2025, 2024 and 2023, respectively'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.7
Support Resistance
1.5
Bollinger
2.5

Volatile — 6.4% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Volatility
0.0
Implied Vol
0.0
Short Interest
0.7
Debt Equity
2.3
Max Pain Risk
3.0
Days To Cover
5.0
Put Call
5.6
News Risk
6.0
High short interest justified: 28%High IV: 91%Above max pain $30Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.8
Value Rank
1.5
Growth Rank
9.2
Industry growth leader

Unprofitable operations — net margin -19.3%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Piotroski F
4.4
Moat
5.0
Gross Margin
8.5
Current Ratio
9.9
Cash-burning: FCF -9% of revenueNo competitive moat
GatesA.R:R 1.1 < 1.5@spotEARNINGS PROXIMITY 4d<=7dDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.9>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
66 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $42.41Resistance $58.04

Price Targets

$52
$65
A.Upside+17.2%
A.R:R1.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 2.1), Material insider selling (26 sells, 0.14% of cap)
! Reward/Risk 1.1:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-05 (4d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TEM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $55.60: Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 28%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 66. Prior stop was $51.73. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TEM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $65.16 (+17.2% upside). Prior stop was $51.73. Stop-loss: $51.73.

What are the risks of investing in TEM?

Concentration risk — Product: oncology and hereditary tests (74.0%); Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 2.1), Material insider selling (26 sells, 0.14% of cap).

Is TEM overvalued or undervalued?

Tempus AI, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -613.6). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TEM?

23 analysts cover TEM with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $72.

What does Tempus AI, Inc. do?Tempus AI is an AI-enabled healthcare company providing genomic diagnostic testing (oncology, hereditary) and data...

Tempus AI is an AI-enabled healthcare company providing genomic diagnostic testing (oncology, hereditary) and data licensing to pharmaceutical/biotech companies, with five U.S. diagnostic labs and 700+ data connections to healthcare institutions. Revenue derives from Diagnostics and Data & Applications product lines. The company had an accumulated deficit of $2.4B and net loss of $245.0M in 2025.

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