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TDSTelephone and Data Systems, IncSell5.1·$40.15+0.30%
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Telephone and Data Systems, Inc (TDS) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Communication Services · Telecom Services

Sell if holding. At $40.15, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Tenant: T-Mobile; Earnings expected to decline ~100% (cyclical peak).

Telephone and Data Systems provides communications services through TDS Telecom (1.1 million connections in 30 states) and tower infrastructure through 82%-owned Array Digital Infrastructure (4,450 towers in 19 states), following Array's August 2025 sale of wireless operations... Read more

$40.15+6.9% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#26 of 40 Telecom Services
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield13.64%
IncomeYield0.40%(5y avg 3.28%)Payout9.41%sustainable
Stop $37.95Target $42.92(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 1.3:1
Analyst target$50.50+25.8%2 analysts
$42.92our TP
$40.15price
$50.50mean
$51

Sell if holding. At $40.15, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Tenant: T-Mobile; Earnings expected to decline ~100% (cyclical peak). Chart setup: RSI 58 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 57d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Aug 10, 202657d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Tenant: T-Mobile
Earnings expected to decline ~100% (cyclical peak)
Thin upside margin: 6.9%

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)23.6
P/E (Fwd)4938.5
Mkt Cap$4.6B
EV/EBITDA18.2
Profit Mgn10.5%
ROE6.0%
Rev Growth6.5%
Beta0.30
Dividend0.40%
Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.21bullish
IV66%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHTenantT-Mobile
    10-K Item 1A: 'Array's business is substantially dependent upon T-Mobile, and if T-Mobile fails to meet its obligations under these leases to Array, this would have a significant adverse impact on TDS'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-24Item 5.02LOW
    TDS 2026 Executive Officer Bonus Program approved by Compensation Committee on March 18, 2026. Covers Vice Chair, EVPs, SVPs, and President/CEO of TDS Telecom. Routine annual incentive plan update.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-13Item 5.02LOW
    Joseph R. Hanley (SVP, Strategy and Corporate Development) notified TDS of his intention to retire effective July 1, 2026 or mutually agreed date. No disagreement cited. No successor named.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
1.4
Quality Rank
4.7
Growth Rank
5.4

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
3.3
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.2
Earnings concerns: 2B/2MDividend: 40.0%
GatesA.R:R 1.3 < 1.5@spotExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 6.2>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 57d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
58 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $38.24Resistance $42.55

Price Targets

$38
$43
A.Upside+6.9%
A.R:R1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Cyclical trap - fwd PE 4938x vs trail 24x (209.1x)
! asymmetry at 1.3 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-10 (57d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TDS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $40.15, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Tenant: T-Mobile; Earnings expected to decline ~100% (cyclical peak). Chart setup: RSI 58 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $37.95. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TDS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $42.92 (+6.9% upside). Prior stop was $37.95. Stop-loss: $37.95.

What are the risks of investing in TDS?

Concentration risk — Tenant: T-Mobile; Earnings expected to decline ~100% (cyclical peak); Thin upside margin: 6.9%.

Is TDS overvalued or undervalued?

Telephone and Data Systems, Inc trades at a P/E of 23.6 (forward 4938.5). TrendMatrix value score: 4.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TDS?

8 analysts cover TDS with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $51.

What does Telephone and Data Systems, Inc do?Telephone and Data Systems provides communications services through TDS Telecom (1.1 million connections in 30 states)...

Telephone and Data Systems provides communications services through TDS Telecom (1.1 million connections in 30 states) and tower infrastructure through 82%-owned Array Digital Infrastructure (4,450 towers in 19 states), following Array's August 2025 sale of wireless operations to T-Mobile. Revenue derives from regulated wireline broadband/video/voice subscriptions and tower lease income, with Array's business now substantially dependent on T-Mobile under a long-term MLA.

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