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TAKTakeda Pharmaceutical Company LSell5.1·$15.55-0.32%
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Takeda Pharmaceutical Company L (TAK) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $15.55: Consecutive earnings misses (3); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8).

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited engages in the research, development, manufacture, marketing, and out-licensing of pharmaceutical products in Japan and internationally. It offers pharmaceutical products in the areas of gastroenterology, rare diseases, plasma-derived... Read more

QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield717.09%
IncomeYield4.20%(5y avg 4.54%)Payout80.03%at-risk
Stop $15.06Target $17.35(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 1.8:1
Analyst target$20.41+31.2%3 analysts
$17.35our TP
$15.55price
$20.41mean
$22

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $15.55: Consecutive earnings misses (3); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 51d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 202651d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Healthcare): +0.5
Attractive valuation
Risks
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8)
Consecutive earnings misses (3)
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)42.5
P/E (Fwd)29.7
Mkt Cap$49.7B
EV/EBITDA3.6
Profit Mgn4.3%
ROE2.6%
Rev Growth3.9%
Beta0.09
Dividend4.20%
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.16bullish
IV101%elevated
Max Pain$3-83.9% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Dividend Safety
3.5
Earnings Timing
5.0
Erm
6.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.5
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
3.6
Growth Rank
4.4
Value Rank
5.8
GatesMomentum 4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.8>=4.5A.R:R 1.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 51d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
36 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $14.84Resistance $16.76

Price Targets

$15
$17
A.Upside+11.6%
A.R:R1.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Analyst Consensus

Analysts19
Consensus3.9/5
Avg Target$20

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (51d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TAK stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $15.55: Consecutive earnings misses (3); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $15.06. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TAK stock price target?

Take-profit target: $17.35 (+10.2% upside). Prior stop was $15.06. Stop-loss: $15.06.

What are the risks of investing in TAK?

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8); Consecutive earnings misses (3); Weak growth.

Is TAK overvalued or undervalued?

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company L trades at a P/E of 42.5 (forward 29.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TAK?

19 analysts cover TAK with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $20.

What does Takeda Pharmaceutical Company L do?Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited engages in the research, development, manufacture, marketing, and out-licensing...

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited engages in the research, development, manufacture, marketing, and out-licensing of pharmaceutical products in Japan and internationally. It offers pharmaceutical products in the areas of gastroenterology, rare diseases, plasma-derived therapies, immunology, oncology, and neuroscience. The company provides its products under the Entyvio, Gattex/Revestive, Takecab/Vocinti, EOHILIA, Alofisel, Dexilant, Pantoloc/Controloc, Adynovate/Adynovi, Feiba Fiber, Recombinate, Hemofil, Immunate, Immunine, Takhzyro, Livtencity, ADZYNMA, Elaprase, Replagal, Advate, Flexbumin, Vpriv, Gammagard Liquid/Kiovig, Hyqvia, Cuvitru, Exkivity, FRUZAQLA, Ninlaro, Velcade, Azilva, Iclusig, Leuplin/Enantone, Adcetris, vyvanse/elvanse, Trintellix, QDENGA, and Alunbrig brands. It has in-licensing agreements with BioMarin, Luxna Biotech, GlaxoSmithKline, Halozyme, and Kamada; collaborations with Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc., Seagen Inc., Anima Biotech, Denali Therapeutics, KSQ Therapeutics, Noile-Immune Biotech, Center for iPS Cell Research Institute, Kyoto University (CiRA), and Charles River Laboratories; licensing agreement with Mirum Pharmaceuticals, UCSD/Fortis Advisors, PeptiDream, MD Anderson Cancer Center, and Teva Pharmaceutical Industries; collaboration and licensing agreement with Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc., Engitix, Genevant Sciences Corporation, Sosei, Zedira/Dr. Falk Pharma, Exelixi GlaxoSmithKline, Heidelberg Pharma, HUTCHMED, KM Biologics, and Ovid Therapeutics Inc.; and collaboration with ZEDIRA GmbH and Dr. Falk Pharma GmbH. It has research collaboration and licensing agreement with Crescendo Biologics. The company was founded in 1781 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

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