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Takeda Pharmaceutical Company L (TAK) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

Sell if holding. At $16.63, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Thin upside margin: 6.4%.

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited engages in the research, development, manufacture, marketing, and out-licensing of pharmaceutical products in Japan and internationally. It offers pharmaceutical products in the areas of gastroenterology, rare diseases, plasma-derived... Read more

Stop $16.12Target $17.70(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 1.3:1
Analyst target$20.82+25.2%3 analysts
$17.70our TP
$16.63price
$20.82mean
$22

Sell if holding. At $16.63, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Thin upside margin: 6.4%. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Thin upside margin: 6.4%
Consecutive earnings misses (3)
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)75.8
P/E (Fwd)31.5
Mkt Cap$52.7B
EV/EBITDA3.8
Profit Mgn2.5%
ROE1.5%
Rev Growth4.2%
Beta0.13
Dividend3.96%
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.12bullish
IV58%elevated
Max Pain$3-85.0% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
3.0
Quality Rank
3.1
Value Rank
5.1

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.6
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).
GatesA.R:R 1.3 < 1.5@spotMomentum 4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 12d<=14d (soft)Momentum 4.9>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
24 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $16.24Resistance $18.75

Price Targets

$16
$18
A.Upside+6.4%
A.R:R1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Reward/Risk 1.3:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-13 (12d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TAK stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $16.63, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Thin upside margin: 6.4%. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $16.12. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TAK stock price target?

Take-profit target: $17.70 (+6.4% upside). Prior stop was $16.12. Stop-loss: $16.12.

What are the risks of investing in TAK?

Thin upside margin: 6.4%; Consecutive earnings misses (3); Weak growth.

Is TAK overvalued or undervalued?

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company L trades at a P/E of 75.8 (forward 31.5). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TAK?

19 analysts cover TAK with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $21.

What does Takeda Pharmaceutical Company L do?Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited engages in the research, development, manufacture, marketing, and out-licensing...

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited engages in the research, development, manufacture, marketing, and out-licensing of pharmaceutical products in Japan and internationally. It offers pharmaceutical products in the areas of gastroenterology, rare diseases, plasma-derived therapies, immunology, oncology, and neuroscience. The company provides its products under the Entyvio, Gattex/Revestive, Takecab/Vocinti, EOHILIA, Alofisel, Dexilant, Pantoloc/Controloc, Adynovate/Adynovi, Feiba Fiber, Recombinate, Hemofil, Immunate, Immunine, Takhzyro, Livtencity, ADZYNMA, Elaprase, Replagal, Advate, Flexbumin, Vpriv, Gammagard Liquid/Kiovig, Hyqvia, Cuvitru, Exkivity, FRUZAQLA, Ninlaro, Velcade, Azilva, Iclusig, Leuplin/Enantone, Adcetris, vyvanse/elvanse, Trintellix, QDENGA, and Alunbrig brands. It has in-licensing agreements with BioMarin, Luxna Biotech, GlaxoSmithKline, Halozyme, and Kamada; collaborations with Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc., Seagen Inc., Anima Biotech, Denali Therapeutics, KSQ Therapeutics, Noile-Immune Biotech, Center for iPS Cell Research Institute, Kyoto University (CiRA), and Charles River Laboratories; licensing agreement with Mirum Pharmaceuticals, UCSD/Fortis Advisors, PeptiDream, MD Anderson Cancer Center, and Teva Pharmaceutical Industries; collaboration and licensing agreement with Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc., Engitix, Genevant Sciences Corporation, Sosei, Zedira/Dr. Falk Pharma, Exelixi GlaxoSmithKline, Heidelberg Pharma, HUTCHMED, KM Biologics, and Ovid Therapeutics Inc.; and collaboration with ZEDIRA GmbH and Dr. Falk Pharma GmbH. It has research collaboration and licensing agreement with Crescendo Biologics. The company was founded in 1781 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

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