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STEPStepStone Group Inc.Sell5.5·$43.22
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

StepStone Group is delivering 56% year-over-year earnings growth and ranks as an industry growth leader with analyst targets implying 54% upside, but the business currently fails the quality minimum threshold with a Piotroski F-Score of only 4/9 and is in a confirmed price downtrend below the 200-day moving average.

Thesis pillars

  • Below Quality Floor Piotroski↑Improving
  • Exceptional Revenue Earnings Growth→Stable
  • Analyst Upside 54pct↑Improving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed May 27, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

StepStone Group Inc. (STEP) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellValueGrowthModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Asset Management

Earnings in 5 days (2026-11-05). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $43.22: Quality below floor (1.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10 and A.R:R 2.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.

StepStone Group manages $233 billion in AUM and advises on $652 billion in AUA across private equity, infrastructure, private debt, and real estate globally, with offices in 31 cities across 19 countries. Management and advisory fees grew from $285 million in fiscal 2021 to $926... Read more

$43.22+30.2% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#130 of 229 Asset Management
QualityF-score3 / 9FCF yield50.59%
IncomeYield3.98%(5y avg 2.00%)Payout164.52%at-risk
Stop $40.19Analyst target $56.29(−13% haircut)A.R:R 2.9:1
Analyst consensus$64.70+49.7%10 analysts
$56.29Analyst target
$43.22price
$64.70mean
$87

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $43.22: Quality below floor (1.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10 and A.R:R 2.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 48. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: speculative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-31
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 5, 20265d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (1.3 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—
P/E (Fwd)12.7
Mkt Cap$5.6B
EV/EBITDA-5.5
Profit Mgn-30.5%
ROE-61.4%
Rev Growth4.0%
Beta1.28
Dividend3.98%
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F3/9

Options Flow

P/C0.17bullish
IV62%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWCustomertop 10 clients17%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our top 10 clients, which contribute to 65 separate mandates and commitments to commingled funds, comprise 17% of our total management and advisory fees.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Unprofitable operations — net margin -30.5%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Current Ratio
2.6
Moat
3.1
Piotroski F
3.3
No competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9Quality concerns

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.1
Growth Rank
5.4
Value Rank
8.7
GatesEARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 6.0>=5.5A.R:R 2.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Speculative
RSI
48 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $40.05Resistance $46.67

Price Targets

$40
$56
A.Upside+30.2%
A.R:R2.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (1.3 < 4.0)
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-05 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is STEP stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $43.22: Quality below floor (1.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10 and A.R:R 2.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 48. Prior stop was $40.19. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the STEP stock price target?

Analyst target: $56.29 (+30.2% upside). Prior stop was $40.19. Stop-loss: $40.19.

What are the risks of investing in STEP?

Quality below floor (1.3 < 4.0).

Is STEP overvalued or undervalued?

StepStone Group Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 12.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about STEP?

15 analysts cover STEP with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $65.

What does StepStone Group Inc. do?StepStone Group manages $233 billion in AUM and advises on $652 billion in AUA across private equity, infrastructure,...

StepStone Group manages $233 billion in AUM and advises on $652 billion in AUA across private equity, infrastructure, private debt, and real estate globally, with offices in 31 cities across 19 countries. Management and advisory fees grew from $285 million in fiscal 2021 to $926 million in fiscal 2026, earned from 402 bespoke SMAs and commingled funds serving pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, and family offices.

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