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Churchill Downs, Incorporated (CHDN) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Gambling

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $98.39 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 4.4): -1.5; Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.4%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Churchill Downs Incorporated ("CDI" or the "Company") has been creating extraordinary entertainment experiences for over 150 years, beginning with the Company's most iconic and enduring asset, the Kentucky Derby. Headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky, CDI has expanded through... Read more

$98.39+21.8% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#5 of 6 Gambling
Stop $91.59Target $119.91(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.8:1
Analyst target$137.83+40.1%12 analysts
$119.91our TP
$98.39price
$137.83mean
$155

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $98.39 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 4.4): -1.5; Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.4%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 66. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 89d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Analyst upside: 22%
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 4.4): -1.5
Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.4%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)18.6
P/E (Fwd)13.8
Mkt Cap$7.0B
EV/EBITDA12.4
Profit Mgn13.2%
ROE35.0%
Rev Growth3.1%
Beta0.65
Dividend0.43%
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.61bearish
IV43%normal
Max Pain$45-54.3% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesMomentum 4.1<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 1.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 89d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
66 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $86.47Resistance $102.89

Price Targets

$92
$120
A.Upside+21.9%
A.R:R1.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 4.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (89d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CHDN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $98.39 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 4.4): -1.5; Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.4%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 66. Prior stop was $91.59. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CHDN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $119.91 (+21.8% upside). Prior stop was $91.59. Stop-loss: $91.59.

What are the risks of investing in CHDN?

Leverage penalty (D/E 4.4): -1.5; Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.4%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is CHDN overvalued or undervalued?

Churchill Downs, Incorporated trades at a P/E of 18.6 (forward 13.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CHDN?

19 analysts cover CHDN with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $138.

What does Churchill Downs, Incorporated do?Churchill Downs Incorporated ("CDI" or the "Company") has been creating extraordinary entertainment experiences for...

Churchill Downs Incorporated ("CDI" or the "Company") has been creating extraordinary entertainment experiences for over 150 years, beginning with the Company's most iconic and enduring asset, the Kentucky Derby. Headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky, CDI has expanded through the acquisition, development, and operation of live and historical racing entertainment venues, the growth of the online wagering businesses, and the acquisition, development, and operation of regional casino gaming prop...

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