Churchill Downs offers a compelling 29% upside to analyst consensus at a forward multiple of 12.7x with a PEG ratio near 1, but the stock sits in a confirmed downtrend, carries debt-to-equity of 4.4x, and converts only 32% of net income into free cash flow — a combination that demands the technical picture improve before the valuation gap can close.
Thesis pillars
- Elevated Debt Load↑Improving
- Attractive Valuation Material Upside→Stable
- Weak Free Cash Flow Conversion→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 25, 2026
Churchill Downs, Incorporated (CHDN) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Consumer Cyclical · Gambling
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $81.95: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.5): -1.5; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.
Churchill Downs Incorporated ("CDI" or the "Company") has been creating extraordinary entertainment experiences for over 150 years, beginning with the Company's most iconic and enduring asset, the Kentucky Derby. Headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky, CDI has expanded through... Read more
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $81.95: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.5): -1.5; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 68. Score 6.0/10, high confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Churchill Downs, Incorporated
Latest news
- NEWS Churchill Downs (CHDN) Q2 Earnings: Taking a Look at Key Metrics Versus Estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS Churchill Downs (CHDN) Misses Q2 Earnings Estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance negative
- NEWS CHURCHILL DOWNS ($CHDN) Releases Q2 2026 Earnings - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative positive
- NEWS CHURCHILL DOWNS ($CHDN) Releases Q2 2026 Earnings - quiverquant.com — quiverquant.com positive
- NEWS Churchill Downs (NASDAQ:CHDN) Posts Q2 CY2026 Sales In Line With Estimates - TradingView — TradingView positive
Generated 2026-10-29T11:14:31Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Analyst Consensus
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $81.95: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.5): -1.5; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 68. Prior stop was $77.21. Score 6.0/10, high confidence.
Analyst target: $109.40 (+33.5% upside). Prior stop was $77.21. Stop-loss: $77.21.
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Leverage penalty (D/E 3.5): -1.5; Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.4%/30d (confirmed downtrend).
Churchill Downs, Incorporated trades at a P/E of 14.0 (forward 11.2). TrendMatrix value score: 8.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
19 analysts cover CHDN with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $126.
What does Churchill Downs, Incorporated do?Churchill Downs Incorporated ("CDI" or the "Company") has been creating extraordinary entertainment experiences for...
Churchill Downs Incorporated ("CDI" or the "Company") has been creating extraordinary entertainment experiences for over 150 years, beginning with the Company's most iconic and enduring asset, the Kentucky Derby. Headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky, CDI has expanded through the acquisition, development, and operation of live and historical racing entertainment venues, the growth of the online wagering businesses, and the acquisition, development, and operation of regional casino gaming prop...