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SFMSprouts Farmers Market, Inc.Sell4.9·$86.33-2.03%
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Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. (SFM) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Grocery Stores

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $86.33 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: KeHE (52.0%).

Sprouts Farmers Market operates 477 specialty natural and organic grocery stores in 24 states as of December 28, 2025, with a farmer's market format emphasizing fresh produce at the center of the store. Revenue is earned in-store and via delivery; Sprouts Brand products... Read more

$86.33+7.7% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#5 of 5 Grocery Stores
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield5.42%
Stop $80.29Target $92.99(resistance)A.R:R -0.6:1
Analyst target$92.43+7.1%14 analysts
$92.99our TP
$86.33price
$92.43mean
$70
$140

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $86.33 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: KeHE (52.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 49. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 46d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-14
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 202646d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: KeHE (52.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)16.6
P/E (Fwd)14.5
Mkt Cap$8.1B
EV/EBITDA11.8
Profit Mgn5.7%
ROE37.3%
Rev Growth4.1%
Beta0.67
DividendNone
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.94neutral
IV62%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicCalifornia33%
    10-K Item 1A: 'we operated 156 stores in California, making California our largest market representing 33% of our total stores in fiscal 2025'
  • HIGHSupplierKeHE52%
    10-K Item 1: 'KeHE Distributors, LLC...is our primary supplier of dry grocery and frozen food products, accounting for approximately 52%...of our total purchases in fiscal 2025, 2024 and 2023, respectively.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-19Item 5.02MEDIUM
    CMO J. Scott Neal retired effective immediately February 16, 2026. Don Clark appointed as new Chief Merchandising Officer on February 16, 2026. Neal to remain in advisory capacity through March 2026 to assist with transition.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.9
Revenue Growth
3.5

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.0
Bollinger
4.1
Support Resistance
4.8
GatesA.R:R -0.6=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 5.2>=4.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 46d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
49 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $76.88Resistance $94.89

Price Targets

$80
$93
A.Upside+7.7%
A.R:R-0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-6.9% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (46d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SFM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $86.33 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: KeHE (52.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 49. Prior stop was $80.29. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SFM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $92.99 (+7.7% upside). Prior stop was $80.29. Stop-loss: $80.29.

What are the risks of investing in SFM?

Concentration risk — Supplier: KeHE (52.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5.

Is SFM overvalued or undervalued?

Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. trades at a P/E of 16.6 (forward 14.5). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SFM?

22 analysts cover SFM with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $92.

What does Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. do?Sprouts Farmers Market operates 477 specialty natural and organic grocery stores in 24 states as of December 28, 2025,...

Sprouts Farmers Market operates 477 specialty natural and organic grocery stores in 24 states as of December 28, 2025, with a farmer's market format emphasizing fresh produce at the center of the store. Revenue is earned in-store and via delivery; Sprouts Brand products represented over 25% of 2025 revenue, with KeHE Distributors supplying approximately 52% of total purchases.

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