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SBGISinclair, Inc.Sell5.4·$14.34-2.98%
SellHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

Sinclair's golden-cross breakout and perfect earnings beat streak are offset by a high leverage penalty and already-exhausted calculated upside, consistent with a call to consider reducing the position despite short-squeeze potential.

Thesis pillars

  • Golden Cross Breakout MomentumStable
  • Perfect Earnings Beat StreakStable
  • High Leverage PenaltyStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Sinclair, Inc. (SBGI) Stock Analysis

Momentum Cont setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5ValueQualityHigh Confidence

Communication Services · Broadcasting

Sell if holding. At $14.34, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 11.5): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 7.5%.

Sinclair, Inc., a media company, provides content on local television stations and digital platforms in the United States. It operates through two segments, Local Media and Tennis. The Local Media segment operates broadcast television stations, original networks, and content;... Read more

$14.34+7.5% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#2 of 6 Broadcasting
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield21.78%
IncomeYield6.48%(5y avg 5.88%)Payout103.09%at-risk
Stop $13.34Target $15.41(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.7:1
Analyst target$17.71+23.5%7 analysts
$15.41our TP
$14.34price
$17.71mean
$30

Sell if holding. At $14.34, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 11.5): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 7.5%. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 56, MACD bullish. Score 5.4/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 29d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202629d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Positive insider activity
Risks
Thin upside margin: 7.5%
Leverage penalty (D/E 11.5): -1.5
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.6
P/E (Fwd)-8.8
Mkt Cap$1.1B
EV/EBITDA11.0
Profit Mgn2.0%
ROE20.0%
Rev Growth4.0%
Beta1.03
Dividend6.48%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.75neutral
IV104%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.5
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
3.3
Value Rank
4.2
Quality Rank
7.3
GatesA.R:R 0.7 < 1.5@spotMomentum 5.5>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 29d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARMomentum ContSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
56 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $12.85Resistance $15.54

Price Targets

$13
$15
A.Upside+7.5%
A.R:R0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 0.7 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (29d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SBGI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $14.34, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 11.5): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 7.5%. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 56, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $13.34. Score 5.4/10, high confidence.

What is the SBGI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $15.41 (+7.5% upside). Prior stop was $13.34. Stop-loss: $13.34.

What are the risks of investing in SBGI?

Thin upside margin: 7.5%; Leverage penalty (D/E 11.5): -1.5; Weak growth.

Is SBGI overvalued or undervalued?

Sinclair, Inc. trades at a P/E of 15.6 (forward -8.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SBGI?

11 analysts cover SBGI with a consensus score of 2.6/5. Average price target: $18.

What does Sinclair, Inc. do?Sinclair, Inc., a media company, provides content on local television stations and digital platforms in the United...

Sinclair, Inc., a media company, provides content on local television stations and digital platforms in the United States. It operates through two segments, Local Media and Tennis. The Local Media segment operates broadcast television stations, original networks, and content; provides free over-the-air programming and live local sporting events on its stations; distributes its content to multi-channel video programming distributors in exchange for contractual fees; and produces local and original news programs. This segment operates The Nest, a free over-the-air national broadcast TV network; Comet, a science fiction network; CHARGE!, an adventure and action-based network; The National News Desk, a news program; and Full Measure with Sharyl Attkisson, an investigative and political analysis program, as well as podcasts related to soccer and sports programming. Its Tennis segment offers Tennis Channel, a cable network that includes coverage of tennis' top tournaments and original professional sports, and tennis lifestyle shows; Tennis Channel International and Tennis Channel streaming services; Tennischannel 2, a 24-hours a day free ad-supported streaming television channel; Tennis.com; and FAST Channel Pickleballtv. The company also provides non-broadcast digital and internet solutions; and technical sales and services, including the design and manufacture of broadcast systems. In addition, it owns various investments in non-media related companies. The company distributes its content through its broadcast platform and third-party platforms that consist of programming provided by third-party networks and syndicators, local news, sports, and other original programming. The company was founded in 1971 and is headquartered in Hunt Valley, Maryland.

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