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NXSTNexstar Media Group, Inc.Hold5.8·$174.50-0.01%
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Nexstar Media Group, Inc. (NXST) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Communication Services · Broadcasting

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $174.50, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Leverage penalty (D/E 5.8): -1.5; Negative momentum.

Nexstar Media Group is the largest U.S. local TV broadcasting company with 200+ owned/partner stations in 116 markets, generating $4.9B revenue in 2025. Distribution fees (59%) and advertising (40%) drive revenue; Nexstar also owns The CW network (80.8% interest), NewsNation,... Read more

$174.50+25.4% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#1 of 2 Communication Services (sector)
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield12.46%
IncomeYield4.26%(5y avg 2.96%)Payout157.63%at-risk
Stop $165.74Target $218.91(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 3.4:1
Analyst target$251.63+44.2%8 analysts
$218.91our TP
$174.50price
$251.63mean
$290

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $174.50, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Leverage penalty (D/E 5.8): -1.5; Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 31, MACD bearish. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 53d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-14
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202653d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Positive news sentiment (+1.00)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 5.8): -1.5
Negative momentum
Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 5.8), Material insider selling (47 sells, 0.16% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)37.0
P/E (Fwd)7.2
Mkt Cap$5.3B
EV/EBITDA12.0
Profit Mgn3.2%
ROE6.6%
Rev Growth13.1%
Beta0.90
Dividend4.26%
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.57bullish
IV68%elevated
Max Pain$260+49.0% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomertop-2 MVPD distribution customers (each ~13%)13%
    10-K Item 1A: 'the Company's revenues from two customers exceeded 10%. Each of these customers represented approximately 13% for 2025, 12% for 2024, and 12% and 14% for 2023, of our consolidated net revenues'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-30Item 1.01MEDIUM
    Nexstar Media Inc. issued $3,390M of 6.500% Senior Secured Notes due 2033 on March 25, 2026, to finance the TEGNA acquisition (closed March 19, 2026) and repay the Bridge Facility and TEGNA 2028 Notes.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-30Item 1.02MEDIUM
    Bridge Facility and Existing Incremental Term Loan B Facility terminated and repaid using proceeds from $3,390M Senior Secured Notes and New Incremental Term Loan B, in connection with TEGNA acquisition closing March 19, 2026.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-30Item 2.03MEDIUM
    Creation of direct financial obligations: $3,390M in 6.500% Senior Secured Notes due 2033 and New Incremental Term Loan B Facility, both issued March 25, 2026, in connection with the TEGNA acquisition.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.5
Volume
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.0%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
3.9
Value Rank
4.3
Growth Rank
6.9
GatesMomentum 2.0<4.58K FLAG 1.02A.R:R 3.4 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 53d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
31 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $170.87Resistance $201.76

Price Targets

$166
$219
A.Upside+25.4%
A.R:R3.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=+2: SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! momentum at 2.0 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (53d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NXST stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $174.50, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Leverage penalty (D/E 5.8): -1.5; Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 31, MACD bearish. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $218.91 (+25.4%), stop $165.74 (−5.3%), A.R:R 3.4:1. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NXST stock price target?

Take-profit target: $218.91 (+25.4% upside). Target $218.91 (+25.4%), stop $165.74 (−5.3%), A.R:R 3.4:1. Stop-loss: $165.74.

What are the risks of investing in NXST?

Leverage penalty (D/E 5.8): -1.5; Negative momentum; Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 5.8), Material insider selling (47 sells, 0.16% of cap).

Is NXST overvalued or undervalued?

Nexstar Media Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 37.0 (forward 7.2). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about NXST?

14 analysts cover NXST with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $252.

What does Nexstar Media Group, Inc. do?Nexstar Media Group is the largest U.S. local TV broadcasting company with 200+ owned/partner stations in 116 markets,...

Nexstar Media Group is the largest U.S. local TV broadcasting company with 200+ owned/partner stations in 116 markets, generating $4.9B revenue in 2025. Distribution fees (59%) and advertising (40%) drive revenue; Nexstar also owns The CW network (80.8% interest), NewsNation, and a 31.3% stake in TV Food Network. The company completed the acquisition of TEGNA in March 2026 for approximately $6.2B.

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