Gray Media shows a technical recovery from a death cross with a favorable modeled asymmetry, but quality remains below the engine's floor on a weak Piotroski score, revenue is declining, and insiders have been modest net sellers - together supporting the recommendation to exit the position despite the attractive valuation.
Thesis pillars
- Quality Below Floor Weak Piotroski→Stable
- Declining Revenue→Stable
- Death Cross Recovery Setup→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Gray Media, Inc. (GTN) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup · Inst Constrain edge
Communication Services · Broadcasting
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $3.77: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.3/10 and A.R:R 4.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend.
Gray Media is the largest owner of local television stations in the United States, operating stations in 114 full-power markets that reach approximately 37% of US television households, plus the largest Telemundo affiliate group with 47 Hispanic-market stations. The company... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $3.77: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.3/10 and A.R:R 4.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 46. Score 4.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 31d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.
About Gray Media, Inc.
About Gray Media, Inc.
Gray Media generated $3.1 billion in total revenue during 2025 across 114 full-power television markets reaching 37% of US television households, with CBS-affiliated stations contributing 37% of total revenue and NBC-affiliated stations contributing 27%. The company also operates the largest Telemundo affiliate group, spanning 47 markets and more than 1.6 million Hispanic TV households.
Advertising and retransmission consent fees are Gray Media's two core revenue streams, with broadcast and digital advertising sold locally, regionally, and nationally, and retransmission fees negotiated with cable, satellite, and other multichannel video programming distributors (MVPDs). Non-political advertising revenue is concentrated by industry rather than by single customer: no advertiser exceeded 5% of broadcast advertising revenue in 2025, but the services sector, covering financial, legal, and medical advertisers, supplied approximately 26% of Core Advertising Revenue, while automotive advertisers supplied approximately 17%. Political advertising, which contributed just 1% of total revenue in 2025 versus 14% in 2024, swings materially in election years. Gray Media's top 10 markets by revenue, including its largest market Phoenix, Arizona, generated approximately 25% of total revenue, with the remainder spread across smaller DMAs ranked between 7 and 209.
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Gray Media's network affiliation agreements with the Big Four broadcasters, which determine programming access and retransmission economics, expire at various dates from mid-2027 through December 31, 2028, putting its most consequential network relationships up for renegotiation within roughly two years of this filing. The 10-K explicitly flags this dependency, noting that Gray Media's concentration of CBS and/or NBC affiliates makes the company particularly sensitive to adverse changes in those relationships or to a decline in either network's general success. Any failure to renew on comparable terms could also jeopardize the retransmission consent fee arrangements tied to carrying that network's programming, compounding the revenue impact beyond lost advertising inventory alone.
See also: Communication Services · Broadcasting
From Gray Media, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-08Recent Developments — Gray Media, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Gray Media Agrees To Acquire Six Television Stations From American Spirit Media For $50M — benzinga Jul 1, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-07-08T22:03:54Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographictop 10 markets25%10-K Item 1: 'Our top 10 markets by revenue contributed approximately 25% and 26% of our total revenue in the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively.'
- MEDIUMcounterpartyCBS37%10-K Item 1: 'our CBS-affiliated channels accounted for approximately 37% of total revenue'
- MEDIUMcounterpartyNBC27%10-K Item 1: 'our NBC-affiliated channels accounted for approximately 27% of total revenue'
- MEDIUMCustomerservices sector advertisers26%10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 26%, 23%, and 27% of our Core Advertising Revenue was derived from advertising sales to customers in the services sector for the years ended December 31, 2025, 2024, and 2023, respectively.'
- LOWCustomerautomotive advertisers17%10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 17%, 20%, and 20% of our Core Advertising Revenue was derived from advertising sales to automotive customers for the years ended December 31, 2025, 2024, and 2023, respectively.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
5 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -1.8% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Unprofitable operations — net margin -3.1%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $3.77: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.3/10 and A.R:R 4.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 46. Prior stop was $3.51. Score 4.3/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $5.66 (+50.1% upside). Prior stop was $3.51. Stop-loss: $3.51.
Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0).
Gray Media, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -16.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
9 analysts cover GTN with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $7.
What does Gray Media, Inc. do?Gray Media is the largest owner of local television stations in the United States, operating stations in 114 full-power...
Gray Media is the largest owner of local television stations in the United States, operating stations in 114 full-power markets that reach approximately 37% of US television households, plus the largest Telemundo affiliate group with 47 Hispanic-market stations. The company earns $3.1 billion in revenue (2025) primarily from broadcast and digital advertising and retransmission consent fees, with CBS- and NBC-affiliated stations together generating roughly 64% of total revenue.