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GTNGray Media, Inc.Sell4.3·$3.77-3.33%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Gray Media shows a technical recovery from a death cross with a favorable modeled asymmetry, but quality remains below the engine's floor on a weak Piotroski score, revenue is declining, and insiders have been modest net sellers - together supporting the recommendation to exit the position despite the attractive valuation.

Thesis pillars

  • Quality Below Floor Weak PiotroskiStable
  • Declining RevenueStable
  • Death Cross Recovery SetupStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Gray Media, Inc. (GTN) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup · Inst Constrain edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueShortModerate Confidence

Communication Services · Broadcasting

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $3.77: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.3/10 and A.R:R 4.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend.

Gray Media is the largest owner of local television stations in the United States, operating stations in 114 full-power markets that reach approximately 37% of US television households, plus the largest Telemundo affiliate group with 47 Hispanic-market stations. The company... Read more

$3.77+50.1% A.UpsideScore 4.3/10#6 of 6 Broadcasting
QualityF-score3 / 9FCF yield27.82%
IncomeYield7.79%(5y avg 4.60%)Payout74.42%
Stop $3.51Target $5.66(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 4.1:1
Analyst target$6.50+72.4%5 analysts
$5.66our TP
$3.77price
$6.50mean
$11

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $3.77: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.3/10 and A.R:R 4.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 46. Score 4.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 31d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Gray Media, Inc.

About Gray Media, Inc.

Gray Media generated $3.1 billion in total revenue during 2025 across 114 full-power television markets reaching 37% of US television households, with CBS-affiliated stations contributing 37% of total revenue and NBC-affiliated stations contributing 27%. The company also operates the largest Telemundo affiliate group, spanning 47 markets and more than 1.6 million Hispanic TV households.

Advertising and retransmission consent fees are Gray Media's two core revenue streams, with broadcast and digital advertising sold locally, regionally, and nationally, and retransmission fees negotiated with cable, satellite, and other multichannel video programming distributors (MVPDs). Non-political advertising revenue is concentrated by industry rather than by single customer: no advertiser exceeded 5% of broadcast advertising revenue in 2025, but the services sector, covering financial, legal, and medical advertisers, supplied approximately 26% of Core Advertising Revenue, while automotive advertisers supplied approximately 17%. Political advertising, which contributed just 1% of total revenue in 2025 versus 14% in 2024, swings materially in election years. Gray Media's top 10 markets by revenue, including its largest market Phoenix, Arizona, generated approximately 25% of total revenue, with the remainder spread across smaller DMAs ranked between 7 and 209.

Show full overview

Gray Media's network affiliation agreements with the Big Four broadcasters, which determine programming access and retransmission economics, expire at various dates from mid-2027 through December 31, 2028, putting its most consequential network relationships up for renegotiation within roughly two years of this filing. The 10-K explicitly flags this dependency, noting that Gray Media's concentration of CBS and/or NBC affiliates makes the company particularly sensitive to adverse changes in those relationships or to a decline in either network's general success. Any failure to renew on comparable terms could also jeopardize the retransmission consent fee arrangements tied to carrying that network's programming, compounding the revenue impact beyond lost advertising inventory alone.

See also: Communication Services · Broadcasting

From Gray Media, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-08

Recent Developments — Gray Media, Inc.

Generated 2026-07-08T22:03:54Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Fri, Aug 7, 202631d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-16.7
Mkt Cap$412M
EV/EBITDA10.3
Profit Mgn-3.1%
ROE-3.4%
Rev Growth-1.8%
Beta0.96
Dividend7.79%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F3/9

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographictop 10 markets25%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our top 10 markets by revenue contributed approximately 25% and 26% of our total revenue in the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively.'
  • MEDIUMcounterpartyCBS37%
    10-K Item 1: 'our CBS-affiliated channels accounted for approximately 37% of total revenue'
  • MEDIUMcounterpartyNBC27%
    10-K Item 1: 'our NBC-affiliated channels accounted for approximately 27% of total revenue'
  • MEDIUMCustomerservices sector advertisers26%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 26%, 23%, and 27% of our Core Advertising Revenue was derived from advertising sales to customers in the services sector for the years ended December 31, 2025, 2024, and 2023, respectively.'
  • LOWCustomerautomotive advertisers17%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 17%, 20%, and 20% of our Core Advertising Revenue was derived from advertising sales to automotive customers for the years ended December 31, 2025, 2024, and 2023, respectively.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

5 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -1.8% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
2.0
Declining revenue: -2%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Unprofitable operations — net margin -3.1%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Gross Margin
0.9
Roa
1.6
Moat
2.5
Piotroski F
3.3
Operating Margin
4.2
Current Ratio
4.6
No competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9Quality concerns

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Volume
2.7
Rsi
4.5
Macd
6.6
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.6%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.0
Quality Rank
2.7
Value Rank
8.3

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
7.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MDividend: 7.8%
GatesMomentum 3.2<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 4.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 31d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Speculative
RSI
46 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $3.55Resistance $4.33

Price Targets

$4
$6
A.Upside+50.1%
A.R:R4.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0)
! momentum at 3.2 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-07 (31d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GTN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $3.77: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.3/10 and A.R:R 4.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 46. Prior stop was $3.51. Score 4.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the GTN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $5.66 (+50.1% upside). Prior stop was $3.51. Stop-loss: $3.51.

What are the risks of investing in GTN?

Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0).

Is GTN overvalued or undervalued?

Gray Media, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -16.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GTN?

9 analysts cover GTN with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $7.

What does Gray Media, Inc. do?Gray Media is the largest owner of local television stations in the United States, operating stations in 114 full-power...

Gray Media is the largest owner of local television stations in the United States, operating stations in 114 full-power markets that reach approximately 37% of US television households, plus the largest Telemundo affiliate group with 47 Hispanic-market stations. The company earns $3.1 billion in revenue (2025) primarily from broadcast and digital advertising and retransmission consent fees, with CBS- and NBC-affiliated stations together generating roughly 64% of total revenue.

Related stocks: SBGI (Sinclair, Inc.) · IHRT (iHeartMedia, Inc.) · NMAX (Newsmax, Inc.) · GTN-A (Gray Media, Inc.)
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