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Boston Beer Company, Inc. (The) (SAM) Stock Analysis

SellHigh Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Brewers

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $215.64: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.0/10. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Elevated put/call ratio: 11.80; Below-average business quality.

The Boston Beer Company produces flavored malt beverages, hard seltzer, beer, hard cider, and spirits RTDs under brands including Twisted Tea (largest-selling FMB in the US since 2022), Samuel Adams, Truly Hard Seltzer, Angry Orchard, and Dogfish Head. The company is the... Read more

$215.64+21.9% A.UpsideScore 4.0/10#7 of 8 Beverages - Brewers
Stop $202.73Target $259.17(resistance)A.R:R -0.4:1
Analyst target$235.32+9.1%13 analysts
$259.17our TP
$215.64price
$235.32mean
$192
$315

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $215.64: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.0/10. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Elevated put/call ratio: 11.80; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.0/10, high confidence.

Passes 4/6 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Val6.5Qual3.6Grw1.4Mom1.2Sent5.3Ins5.0Peer2.1Tech8.2Risk1.84.0OVERALL

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (94.0%)
Target reached (-3.7% upside)
Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)24.0
P/E (Fwd)20.8
Mkt Cap$2.5B
EV/EBITDA10.2
Profit Mgn-3.1%
ROE-7.7%
Rev Growth-4.4%
Beta—
DividendNone
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9

Options Flow

P/C11.80bearish
IV64%elevated
Max Pain$150-30.4% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicUnited States94%
    10-K Item 1A: 'In the United States, where approximately 94% of its beverages are sold, the Company sells most of its alcohol beverages to independent beer Distributors'
  • LOWSupplierCity Brewing Company14%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 14% of the Company's annual domestic shipment volume was produced under production service agreements with City Brewing Company, LLC and its subsidiaries'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-16Item 5.02LOW
    Michael Spillane will not stand for re-election as Boston Beer director and will retire at the 2026 Annual Meeting. Decision not due to disagreement. No successor named.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-17Item 5.02LOW
    Boston Beer disclosed FY2025 NEO compensation arrangements including bonus details for CEO C. James Koch and others. Routine compensatory disclosure.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-10Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Lesya Lysyj stepped down as Boston Beer CMO effective March 6, 2026, remaining as advisor through September 2026. Separation agreement includes salary continuation and 2025 bonus payment. No successor CMO named.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

5 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 27, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.5%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Revenue shrinking — -4.4% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
1.4
Declining revenue: -4%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Risk profile below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volatility
0.0
Put Call
0.0
Debt Equity
0.0
Short Interest
1.9
Implied Vol
2.7
Max Pain Risk
3.0
Days To Cover
5.0
High short interest justified: 16%Elevated put/call: 11.80High IV: 64%Above max pain $150Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
2.3
Quality Rank
2.5
Growth Rank
3.8

Unprofitable operations — net margin -3.1%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
2.0
Current Ratio
3.7
Roa
4.8
Moat
5.0
Piotroski F
5.6
Gross Margin
5.7
Fcf Quality
6.0
FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 19%, FCF yield 14.9%)No competitive moat
GatesMomentum 1.2<4.5A.R:R -0.4=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
27 · Oversold
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $209.00Resistance $264.46

Price Targets

$203
$259
A.Upside+20.2%
A.R:R-0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-3.7% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 1.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-30 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SAM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $215.64: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.0/10. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Elevated put/call ratio: 11.80; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $202.73. Score 4.0/10, high confidence.

What is the SAM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $259.17 (+21.9% upside). Prior stop was $202.73. Stop-loss: $202.73.

What are the risks of investing in SAM?

Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (94.0%); Target reached (-3.7% upside); Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0).

Is SAM overvalued or undervalued?

Boston Beer Company, Inc. (The) trades at a P/E of 24.0 (forward 20.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SAM?

22 analysts cover SAM with a consensus score of 2.7/5. Average price target: $235.

What does Boston Beer Company, Inc. (The) do?The Boston Beer Company produces flavored malt beverages, hard seltzer, beer, hard cider, and spirits RTDs under brands...

The Boston Beer Company produces flavored malt beverages, hard seltzer, beer, hard cider, and spirits RTDs under brands including Twisted Tea (largest-selling FMB in the US since 2022), Samuel Adams, Truly Hard Seltzer, Angry Orchard, and Dogfish Head. The company is the second-largest Beyond beer supplier with approximately 20% market share; approximately 86% of 2025 volume is in Beyond beer.

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