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SAMBoston Beer Company, Inc. (The)Sell4.7·$170.08+3.25%
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Boston Beer Company, Inc. (The) (SAM) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Brewers

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $170.08: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10 and A.R:R 2.0:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 20%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.38; Below-average business quality.

Boston Beer Company brews and markets craft beer, hard seltzer, hard cider, and spirits RTDs under brands including Twisted Tea, Truly, Samuel Adams, Angry Orchard, and Dogfish Head, selling predominantly in the United States through 300+ wholesale distributors. In 2025... Read more

$170.08+17.9% A.UpsideScore 4.7/10#8 of 8 Beverages - Brewers
QualityF-score5 / 9FCF yield20.93%
Stop $158.17Target $200.44(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.0:1
Analyst target$230.39+35.5%13 analysts
$200.44our TP
$170.08price
$230.39mean
$315

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $170.08: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10 and A.R:R 2.0:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 20%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.38; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 47. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 51d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 202651d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)15.3
Mkt Cap$1.8B
EV/EBITDA7.0
Profit Mgn-3.1%
ROE-7.7%
Rev Growth-4.4%
Beta0.79
DividendNone
Rating analysts23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9

Options Flow

P/C1.38bearish
IV64%elevated
Max Pain$360+111.7% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWSupplierCity Brewing Company14%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 14% of the Company's annual domestic shipment volume was produced under production service agreements with City Brewing Company, LLC and its subsidiaries'
  • MEDIUMSuppliersingle sourced flavorings
    10-K Item 1A: 'The Company's beverages include many unique and proprietary flavors and combinations of flavors and some of these flavorings are single sourced.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-16Item 5.02LOW
    Director Michael Spillane notified Board he will not stand for re-election at 2026 Annual Meeting and will retire. No disagreement with company operations, policies, or practices cited.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-10Item 5.02MEDIUM
    CMO Lesya Lysyj agreed to step down effective March 6, 2026, remaining in advisory capacity through September 30, 2026. Separation agreement provides 13 weeks salary, 2025 cash bonus, and continued health benefits. No successor named.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -4.4% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
1.4
Declining revenue: -4%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.3
Quality Rank
2.7
Value Rank
2.9

Unprofitable operations — net margin -3.1%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
2.0
Moat
3.2
Current Ratio
3.7
Roa
4.8
Piotroski F
5.6
Gross Margin
5.7
Fcf Quality
6.0
FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 19%, FCF yield 20.9%)No competitive moat
GatesDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 6.1>=5.5A.R:R 2.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 51d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
47 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $158.68Resistance $199.67

Price Targets

$158
$200
A.Upside+17.9%
A.R:R2.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (51d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SAM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $170.08: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10 and A.R:R 2.0:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 20%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.38; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 47. Prior stop was $158.17. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SAM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $200.44 (+17.9% upside). Prior stop was $158.17. Stop-loss: $158.17.

What are the risks of investing in SAM?

Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0).

Is SAM overvalued or undervalued?

Boston Beer Company, Inc. (The) trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 15.3). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SAM?

23 analysts cover SAM with a consensus score of 2.7/5. Average price target: $230.

What does Boston Beer Company, Inc. (The) do?Boston Beer Company brews and markets craft beer, hard seltzer, hard cider, and spirits RTDs under brands including...

Boston Beer Company brews and markets craft beer, hard seltzer, hard cider, and spirits RTDs under brands including Twisted Tea, Truly, Samuel Adams, Angry Orchard, and Dogfish Head, selling predominantly in the United States through 300+ wholesale distributors. In 2025 approximately 86% of domestic volume was produced at company-owned breweries, with the balance at third-party facilities including City Brewing Company.

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